Iraq Civil War 'not Inevitable'

The defence secretary, John Reid, will tonight use a speech marking the third anniversary of the invasion of Iraq to insist the country is not on the brink of civil war.

Mr Reid, who has just returned from a weekend visit to British troops in Iraq, will spell out the British government's assessment of the country's achievements since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and the future challenges it faces.

His message - to foreign journalists in London - will flatly contradict the assessment of the former prime minister Iyad Allawi, who said at the weekend Iraq was already "in a terrible civil conflict now".

Mr Reid, who last month gave a combative speech criticising the media and human rights lawyers for undermining British troop morale in Iraq, is expected to tell members of the Foreign Press Association that civil war is neither "imminent nor inevitable".

Mr Allawi warned yesterday that violence in the country was reaching the point of no return and said Europe and the USA would not be spared the consequences of civil war. He said Iraq would fall disintegrate if the bloodshed got worse.

"It will not only fall apart, but sectarianism will spread throughout the region, and even Europe and the United States would not be spared all the violence that may occur as a result of sectarian problems in this region," Mr Allawi said.

Mr Reid recently announced plans to cut the number of British troops in Iraq. Speaking yesterday on a visit to British forces in southern Iraq he conceded that sectarian violence was worsening. But he insisted Mr Allawi's assessment was wrong - and contradicted what the ex-interim PM had told him privately.

Mr Reid said every politician he met during talks in Baghdad, including Mr Allawi, felt civil war was not inevitable.

"Every single politician I have met here from the prime minister to the president, the defence minister and indeed Iyad Allawi himself said to me there's an increase in the sectarian killing, but there's not a civil war and we will not allow a civil war to develop.

"The essential thing is to show maximum unity in a government of national unity so that the terrorists that do want a civil war do not get their wish."

Mr Reid, who initially refused to believe Mr Allawi had made the remarks, sought to find a reason for his statement.

"I fully understand why he wants to stress the urgency of the need for a government of national unity; that's precisely the message I have been giving out."

In London at the weekend tens of thousands demonstrated for the return of UK troops. Police put the crowd at 15,000, the Stop the War Coalition at 80,000-100,000. Protesters were addressed by the mayor of London, Ken Livingstone, and former Labour minister Tony Benn.