Fantasy Points: 2004 Fantasy Points League Preview -- Second Base

If first base is the Fantasy equivalent of Goliath, then second base is without a doubt the stones in David's hand. As you glance down the rankings, there are few sure things at this scarce position but if you get a Alfonso Soriano, a Bret Boone, a Jeff Kent or a Jose Vidro, your roster will be setting right in 2004.

The difference between the "Haves" and the "Haves Nots" is so immense that drafting a top five or six second baseman is essential if you want any hope from this position. If you are unfortunate to get a top tier player at this position, be careful not to take a second baseman like Adam Kennedy or Luis Rivas too early, just because you have too. Simply, once you past the elite at the position everyone else is fairly equal in mediocrity and drafting in the mid-rounds for second level second baseman would be a critical error. Just ask the owners who selected a Fernando Vina or a Junior Spivey with the 10th and 11th round pick last season what they think.

In 2003, only Soriano, Boone, Kent, and Marcus Giles hit more than 20 home runs, while Boone was the only second baseman who topped the 100 RBIs mark. And, once thought of as a primary speed position, Soriano, Eric Young, Adam Kennedy, Luis Castillo, Desi Relaford, and part-timer Brian Roberts were the only players at the position who stole more than 20 bases.

If you think that David will win this battle in 2004, think again. The position is just as soft this season offering very little value with the exception of a few up and coming youngsters like Orlando Hudson, Alex Cintron, and D'Angelo Jimenez.

2004 Projections: Average 2B Statistics 135G / 494AB / 71R / 26 Doubles / 4 Triple / 11 Homeruns / 56 RBI / 12 SB / 43 Walks / .277 AVG

League using a Fantasy Points system of: "1 Point" for every Run, Single, RBI, and Walk; "2 Points" for every Double and Stolen Base; "3 Points" for each Triple; and "4 Points" for each Home run; Total Points Projected for an average 1B in 2004 = 398 (2.88 PPG)

2004 2B Rankings

1. Alfonso Soriano, TEX (635 Total, 3.96 PPG) - Is without question the elite at the position. The Yankees disgusted with Soriano's lack of plate discipline (.338 OBP and 138 K's in '03) and lack-luster postseason shipped him to Texas for Alex Rodriguez. It is hard to imagine that Soriano can improve upon his two consecutive 35-35 seasons, but with his massive talent look for him to cut down on his strikeouts and have another monster season of .285-34-105 and 30 steals in '04.

2. Bret Boone, SEA (591, 3.69) - Has emerged as a solid MVP candidate in each of the last three seasons for the Mariners. In 2003, Boone stumbled mightily down stretch while seeing his strikeouts increase and at the age of 35, Fantasy owners are concerned that his skills may be finally eroding. Even if his numbers drop in 2004, he is still one of the top players at the position. Expect at least .282-28-108 and 10 SB this season.

3. Jose Vidro, MON (551, 3.67) - You may not ever know who the real Vidro is until he bolts from that city north of the border, but Fantasy owners take note. He was off to an incredible start in '03 (.332-11-47 before the break) until a knee injury limited him to just 193 AB in the second half resulting in very modest second half numbers. Now healthy, the new Expos 3rd hitter will break out with his best season becoming the National League's top second baseman. Expect a .324-19-91 season with more than 40 doubles.

4. Jeff Kent, HOU (546, 3.64) - Like Soriano and Boone, Kent is a top-tier second baseman in any Fantasy Baseball League. Consistent run producer that should have a better season in the middle of the potent Astros lineup. With a full season of health expect a season of .291-29-102 from one of the most productive second baseman of all-time.

5. Marcus Giles, ATL (493, 3.28) - The other Giles burst onto the 2003 scene, setting career highs in average (.316), HR (21), RBI (69), and SB (14). At 25, he will either have an even better season in '04 or watch his numbers decline somewhat with the free agent losses of Gary Sheffield and Javy Lopez. He will remain a strong 2B option in 2004 but his numbers will suffer to a .284-20-61 and 12 SB campaign.

6. Ray Durham, SF (492, 3.28) - Hamstring problems and game built on speed are like mixing water and oil together, it just does not work. In 2003, Durham's stolen base totals took a major hit from 26 in 2002 to just seven in 2003, due in large part to a lingering hamstring injury that limited him to just 133 AB and zero (0) steals following the break. Durham is expected to be at full strength in 2004 which means a sleeper season of .286-11-52 with 100+ runs scored and 15-20 SB is on the horizon.

7. D'Angelo Jimenez, CIN (483, 3.22) - After struggling with the White Sox, Jimenez was traded to the Reds last July and put up tremendous numbers (.290-7-31 and seven steals in just 73 games). At 26, Jimenez will be the everyday third baseman, that qualifies at second base, and bat leadoff for a team that should have a healthy Griffey, Dunn, Kearns, and Casey hitting behind him. If that is not enough to qualify him as a legitimate sleeper for '04, keep in mind that he led the Dominican Winter Baseball League in average this off season. A .280-12-64 season with 80+ runs and 15-20 Steals are realistic expectations in 2004.

8. Roberto Alomar, ARZ (461, 3.17) - "Remember the Alamo" or better yet "Remember the Alomar" that starred for the Cleveland Indians just three seasons ago, hitting .336 with 20 homeruns, 30 stolen bases, and 100 RBI. For Fantasy owners, it seems like 1901 and at the 35, coming off two pathetic seasons, the question is -- can he regain his MVP-caliber form? Absolutely, not! However, Alomar is playing for baseball's minimum wage, by choice, and will be the everyday D-backs second baseman and leadoff hitter. So there is plenty of motivation in 2004, and expecting a .280-10-59 season with 85 runs and 15-20 stolen bases is very reasonable making him a steal on draft day. Remember the Alomar!

9. Luis Castillo, FLA (460, 3.07) - If your looking for steals from your second base position, he is without a doubt an affordable option for any roster. However, Castillo is purely a slap hitter with two to four home run power and actually was successful on just 21 of 41 steal attempts last season. Hip surgery following the 2002 season may have been a contributing factor to his horrendous steal ratio and even if Castillo is at full strength don't expect more than 30 SB this season. Look for a consistent .294-3-32 season with 95-100 runs scored and 25-30 SB in '04.

10. Mike Young, TEX (452, 2.92) - Young was arguably the biggest Fantasy surprise in 2003, setting career marks in average (.306), home runs (14), RBI (72), and stolen bases (13). He did, however, failed to improve upon his patience striking out 103 trips to the plate while walking just 36 times. Many owners may believe that another season like '03 is coming for the young middle infielder, but Young will have difficulties in 2004 with a .273-10-54 clip and adjusting to the new shortstop position.

11. Jose Reyes, NYM (451, 3.14) - As a 2004 rookie, Reyes settled in as the Mets' everyday shortstop until a sprained ankle forced him to miss the remainder of the season. This season he will be at second and hit second in the batting order behind rookie Kazuro Matsui and in front of Mike Piazza, so expect more of the same -- average, speed, and some power from this Fantasy delight. The problem is, he should be rated higher, but another injury this Spring makes him doubtful for Opening Day. If healthy, expect more than 500 at bats with .279-8-60 with 30+ steals and if not, buyer be warned.

12. Mark Loretta, SD (449, 2.99) - Went from being mentioned with the likes of utility men Mark McLemore and Joe McEwing to a Fantasy standout in 2003, setting a Padres team record for most hits (185) by a second baseman with a career-high 13 HR and 72 RBI. Don't expect Loretta to duplicate his 2003 season, but expect a another consistent year of at least .300-8-60 with 90 runs in '04

13. Melvin Mora, BAL (447, 3.08) - Despite playing in just 96 games, Mora still hit 15 HR with 48 RBI, 68 runs, and was leading the league in hitting for much of the first half until knee and hand injuries caused him to miss considerable action last season. The versatile Mora started in the outfield, at shortstop, at second base, and at first base last season. In 2004, he is slated to take over third base for the departed Tony Batista and should hit a respectable .274 with 17 HR and 59 RBI as the O's leadoff hitter.

14. Alex Cintron, ARZ (441, 3.03) - Those owners fortunate enough in claiming Cintron off the waiver wire following his May 7 call-up last season, happily rode his .317-13-51 Fantasy line the remainder of the season. With the signing of Alomar and Sexson, Cintron will produce as the everyday D-backs shortstop and batting fifth in a good lineup. He will not come cheap and expect another solid .286-15-72 season in the desert.

15. Orlando Hudson, TOR (440, 2.93) - Many Fantasy owners have given up on the young Hudson and with his ridiculous average (.160) last season against lefties, who can argue? At 25 years old, and with his first full season under his belt, the former top Blue Jays prospect is primed to build on his .282-5-36 first half and is a definite 2004 draft day sleeper at a bargain price. Expect a 2003 Michael Young-type .282-13-71 banner '04 season for the talented Hudson.

Others:

16. Bill Mueller, BOS (422, 3.12) - Boston Red Sox's third baseman who also qualifies at second base. In 2003, Mueller shocked the baseball world by winning the AL Batting crown (.326) while achieving career-bests in HR (19) and RBI (85). If he can stay healthy (which history suggests he will not) and if continues his power surge there is no reason why Mueller could not be a top 5 selection at the second and third base positions this season. On the other hand, look for a solid .290-.300 season with a significant drop-off in HR and RBI. Just to many if (s).

17. Placido Polanco, PHI (429, 2.95) - Solid and consistent hitter that is likely to be moved down the lineup while platoon at both second and third base. He should find enough at bats this season, however to hit in the .290's with 10-15 HR and 65-70 RBI.

18. Junior Spivey, MIL (394, 3.03) - Spivey scuffled at the plate all last season, never finding the groove he established in his 2002 breakout season. Now healthy, he may not reach his '02 level but he's a good bet to hit around .275 with 15 HR, 55-60 RBI, and 10 SB for the Brewers in 2004.

19. Julio Lugo, TB (400, 2.85) - After being released by the Astros early last season following a public domestic incident, Lugo impressed his new Devil Rays' team and Fantasy owners, hitting .275-15-53 with 10 steals in just 117 games. At 28, he should continue to thrive in 2004 with a .278-14-52 and 14 SB season.

20. Aaron Miles, COL (384, 2.84) - Rookie Aaron Miles is projected to be the Rockies' starting second baseman heading into spring training. Miles earned International League MVP honors in 2003 with a .304-11-50 line and should fight off Damian Jackson for the starting spot. Keep an eye on him this Spring and if he gets 500 at bats this season, an average of .284 with 9 HR and 52 RBI should be expected.

21. Luis Rivas, MIN (375, 2.58) - Steady, mediocre player that is basically a possible one category threat -- stolen Bases. How does a .260-6-47 and 20 SB player sound for your team?

22. Desi Relaford, KC (365, 2.70) - The versatile Relaford will play everywhere, including second base in 2004. He is a unique player that can do almost anything including hit for some power and drive in runs, however, his Fantasy Value is in the stolen base and runs scored department. Look for a solid .260-6-44-15 this season.

23. Marlon Anderson, STL (365, 2.70) - The St. Louis second base job is still open for any of the candidates that step forward. Anderson should have no problems replacing the incumbent Bo Hart, Brent Butler, or Hector Luma for the position once Opening Day arrives. Quietly, Anderson had a very productive '03 season for the weak hitting Tampa Bay Devil Rays and the switch back to the National hitting in front of Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, and Scott Rolen should be successful if he wins the job.

24. Adam Kennedy, ANA (352, 2.51) - Had fantastic playoff run in 2002, and fell onto hard times last season. Kennedy is basically a poor man's Luis Rivas which does not translate into any Fantasy value in 2004.

25. Mark Grudzielanek/Todd Walker, CHC - The second base position is a major strength heading into 2004 for the Chicago Cubs, however for Fantasy owners it is a major downer. Both Grudzielanek and Walker are coming off sensational '03 seasons and both will likely platoon. Either would likely be a top 10 selection if they played everyday, but unless there is an injury do not expect much more than 400 at bats which means both Fantasy Values will suffer in '04.

26. Jerry Hairston/Brian Roberts, BAL - Similar to the Cubs situation, both players will split time in 2004. The O's tandem's circumstances are quite different, however. If healthy, Hairston would be a sleeper this season and would hit in the high .270's with 30+ steals but injuries are once again plaguing the youngster and it is looking more likely that Roberts will begin the season at second base. Both speedsters hold tremendous value in stolen base and runs categories and, again, both will not have enough at bats to make any sort of impact this season, unless traded to another team.

27. Fernando Vina, DET (338, 2.70) - After missing most of last season with a severe hamstring injury and now the second baseman for the lousy Tigers, a rebound season is unlikely at 35 years of age.

28. Pokey Reese, BOS (333, 2.56) - The best fielding shortstop and second baseman around now takes his match stick bat to Bean Town. Don't expect much more than a .250-7-41-21 season from Reese.

29. Willie Harris, CWS - Super Sleeper for 2004. Harris enters the season as the White Sox starting second baseman. In parts of three seasons, he has only managed to hit just .213 in part-time play as a center fielder. However, Harris has tremendous upside (.290 career hitter in the minors) and will likely bat leadoff unless former Rockies' Juan Uribe wins the job. A .265-5-40 with 25-30 steals and 80+ runs would not be surprising in '04.

30. Ronnie Belliard, CLE (316, 2.52) - Each year, Belliard hits more and more like Rafael Belliard which translates into very little Fantasy worthiness. Don't expect much more than a .265-8-48 season for the Indians' stop-gap second baseman in 2004.

31. Miguel Cairo/Enrique Wilson/Homer Bush, NYY - The Yankees are loaded with Fantasy talent at every position, except second base. In just one season, the Yanks will go from having the most prized second baseman in the game to the complete worst. Look elsewhere.

Sleepers: Worth Your Time & Dime

* Jose Vidro, MON - Will become the National League's elite second baseman in 2004 at a bargain price.

* Ray Durham, SF - Now that Durham is completely healthy, look for him to rebound with a tremendous season. On draft day, play up his 0 steals the second half of last season and he will be one of the biggest "steals" of your Draft.

* D'Angelo Jimenez, CIN - Led winter ball league in hitting and put up robust .291-7-31-7 numbers in just 73 games with the Reds last season. Those statistics projected over an entire season would come out to a robust .291-16- 69-16, which indeed makes him a top sleeper for '04.

* Roberto Alomar, ARZ - Contrary to popular belief, Alomar is not washed up. A bounce back season following to mediocre campaigns is without a doubt in the works.

* Orlando Hudson, TOR - The former top Blue Jays prospect is due for a breakout season and will be the best late round pick you ever make.

* Julio Lugo, TB - Looked as though Lugo was on his way out of baseball after being released by the Astros in 2003. But, the Devil Rays desperate for shortstop help claimed him off waivers last May, and Lugo responded with a standout season. Expect more of the same in 2004.

* Aaron Miles, COL - The Coors Field element is enough reason to make the 2003 International League's MVP a legitimate sleeper candidate in 2004. You could do worse with your last pick.

* Willie Harris, CWS - The White Sox brass are high on the speedy Harris and he could be the next Luis Castillo for several years to come beginning in '04.

Busts: Let me to you about the Dangers

* Marcus Giles, ATL - Giles numbers across the board will decline considerably in 2004. The free agent defections of Sheffield and Lopez will only hurt the "other" Giles. Still a top 10 second baseman in 2004, but will be overvalued on draft day.

* Michael Young, TEX - No more surprises this season and if he fails to improve his patience at the plate, a miserable season for him and Fantasy owners will be on the horizon.

* Luis Castillo, FLA - Castillo is purely a two category Fantasy threat: stolen bases and average. If 2003 is any indication with what to expect from the broken Castillo, Fantasy gurus may very well be in trouble this season. Luis, we need 50 SB from you, not a 50% steal ratio.

* Bill Mueller, BOS - The 2003 AL-batting champion should hit close to .300 again but expect a major dip in his power numbers and anticipate a injury-plagued season for the fragile Mueller.

Mr. Consistency: Pencil Their Numbers In...

Alfonso Soriano, TEX Bret Boone, SEA Mark Loretta, SD Alex Cintron, ARZ Placido Polanco, PHI Luis Rivas, MIN Desi Relaford, KC Adam Kennedy, ANA