Spring Classic Splutters to the Start Line

Imagine, if you will, the following scenarios involving this summer’s World Cup: Barcelona suggest it would be wise for Ronaldinho, Lionel Messi and Deco to skip the tournament to save their energies for next season, which they promptly do, together with David Beckham, Thierry Henry and Michael Ballack; political dogma then leads the German government to ban one of the competing teams from entering the country; Fifa decides that matches should be ended at half-time if, for example, France are beating Togo 5-0; Fifa also declares that each top club need only release up to 10 players for the competition, and that even these players are restricted to turning out for 70 minutes per game; and, finally, imagine if it were still possible to buy tickets for the semi-finals and final via the governing body’s website.

If you can envisage all this, then you’re close to appreciating the difficulties that have beset international baseball’s attempts to launch its inaugural World Baseball Classic, which, despite everything, begins tonight when Korea play Chinese Taipei in the Tokyo Dome.

The Classic is unprecedented. For the first time Major League Baseball (MLB) has sanctioned the release of its players, and the event has taken on even greater significance after the sport was bumped off the Olympic program for London 2012. The intention is to repeat the experiment in 2009, and then every four years thereafter. But the problem is officials and players are treating it as just that: an experiment. There is a strong feeling many of the game’s stars are waiting to see whether the tournament boosts their career - if it doesn’t, they won’t take part next time.

When MLB’s Paul Archey announced recently he "couldn’t be more pleased, we set out to include the best players in the game, and we’ve accomplished that", his mind must have glossed over those figures who have withdrawn - including the game’s most famous name, Barry Bonds - not through injury, but to avoid potential breakdown ahead of the Major League season starting in April. This was the main talking point when the idea of a first official baseball World Cup was mooted - when to actually play the thing. When March, the traditional time for MLB’s spring training (or pre-season) was agreed upon, it was inevitable that a raft of the game’s big hitters would opt out, preferring to stay with their clubs.

A study of the New York Yankees roster is telling. Gary Sheffield, Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina (all USA), Robinson Cano (Dominican Republic), Chien-Ming Wang (Chinese Taipei), Mariano Rivera (Panama), Jorge Posada (Puerto Rico) and Hideki Matsui (Japan) will all be absent after fearsome Yankees owner George ‘The Boss’ Steinbrenner - the only one of the 30 MLB club owners not to vote in favor of the event - made his thoughts clear: "We don’t like it that well, because if a player gets hurt, he’s risking a lot."

The withdrawal of Matsui, Japan’s premier slugger, was perhaps the biggest blow to the Classic’s integrity. In countries such as Japan and the Dominican Republic, who also lost one of their top players, Manny Ramirez, to disinterest, baseball is possibly even more of a religion than in the US, and all were expected to follow the mantra of Puerto Rico’s Javier Vasquez: "There’s a lot of pride at stake. Baseball is our national sport so we want to represent our countries."

As a compromise, two controversial rules have been drawn up to encourage participation - and to appease the clubs, who need only release up to 10 of their players each anyway: 1) pitchers can only throw 65 times in the first round, 80 in the second, and 95 in the semi-finals and final (100-plus is usual for a starter in a Major League game); and 2) games will be declared over if a team is winning by 15 runs or more after five innings (a game typically lasts nine innings).

That the second rule was even considered, let alone may be enforced, suggests another problem: one-sided games. China coach Jim Lefebvre said optimistically that "as long as we pitch and get people out, we have a chance to win", but realistically there is no chance. The Chinese league only started in 2002, and the team lost a warm-up fixture to Japanese club Yomiuri Giants’ reserves 17-0 on Tuesday. The game will surely be stopped prematurely when they play the Japanese national team on Friday.

Similarly, the action cannot be expected to last any longer when the United States play host to South Africa next week. While the US, as you would expect, have all-stars in every position and arguably the strongest all-round squad ever assembled by any team, South Africa have just four players who have played professional baseball, none at the highest level. This is one of many reasons why some tickets are still to be snapped up.

Yet statistics can be used to tell a different story. It is wiser not to compare the Classic with the football World Cup, but with the rugby union or cricket versions. These are also held quadrennially not just as a stage for the brilliance of the globe’s best, but to extend opportunities to less-heralded countries. So it is with the Classic. As Los Angeles Angels owner Arte Moreno says: "The long-term view is for us to reach out globally. The only way we’re going to be able to reach out and do that is a contest like this where the players represent their countries. Globally, people get to see the vision."

Thus 39 matches will be played in the next 18 days, for which an admittedly impressive 800,000 tickets have been bought. Sixteen countries from six continents will take part, while the action will be beamed to many more nations by ESPN’s TV cameras. The teams are split into four pools of four - playing in Tokyo, Arizona, Puerto Rico and Florida - the top two from each advancing to the last eight, with the final being played in San Diego on March 20.

Among the long shots are Europe’s two representatives: Holland, who have persuaded ace pitcher Mark Mulder and the Atlanta Braves’ star hitter Andruw Jones - born in the Netherlands Antilles - to play; and Italy, for whom legendary catcher Mike Piazza will turn out. The talented Dutch outfit could provide a shock in pool C against Panama, who will greatly miss Rivera, the best closing pitcher in the game. Italy, meanwhile, will fancy their chances against Australia in pool D, though the 2004 Olympic silver medalists, too, are a growing force.

In pool A, Chinese Taipei and Korea will battle it out for second place behind Japan, while Canada and Mexico will fight to join the US in the quarter-finals from pool B. All four teams have a sprinkling of Major League talent throughout their rosters, though none harbor realistic ambitions of reaching the semi-finals.

Japan and the US will likely be joined in the last four by any two of Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and Venezuela. While the latter two teams have some of the world’s finest players and could beat anyone on their day, it is the Dominican Republic who are deservedly joint-favorites with the US. With Bartolo Colon leading the pitching and an all-star batting line-up featuring the brilliant Albert Pujols, the Dominicans are a genuine threat to 43-year-old Roger Clemens, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and the rest of the stellar names donning the stars and stripes.

But surely the most fascinating of the 16 teams is Cuba, because of their unpredictability. Their squad will arrive in America - despite the US Treasury’s initial refusal to sanction their appearance in the tournament, later overturned on appeal when Fidel Castro agreed to donate any profits to Hurricane Katrina victims - with an average age of 24, and with many exciting prospects that have never been seen outside their own country, such as 16-year-old phenomenon Dayan Viciedo. Cuba have struck Gold at three of the last four Olympics, but the loss of defectors such as World Series-winners Orlando Hernandez and Jose Contreras is a blow. The team will therefore be accompanied by a massive entourage to ensure none of their current players are lured by the Yankee dollar this time.

While the rest of the world might celebrate, a Cuban triumph is probably the one result American organizers dread even more than further player withdrawals.