Hoops -- Week in Review & Rankings (No. 5)

With Selection Sunday only two weeks away, we will take a different look at the teams that are vying for a coveted bid in the NCAA Tournament.

The usual rankings that appear in this column will be replaced by a look at the teams that are still in the running for the Big Dance.

Also, we will examine the so-called "bubble" teams and determine what they need to do in these final two weeks of the season in order to secure a tournament bid.

Hopefully, this review of the contenders will give you a better sense of why certain of them will earn a place on the tournament bracket and why others will not.

Who gets in?

Before we get into which teams will be in the tournament and why, it is worth providing a brief explanation of how the field is constructed. This should help explain why a traditional powerhouse like Indiana won't necessarily appear on your bracket, but a school like Austin Peay will.

There are 65 teams that will receive bids to the NCAA Tournament.

All 31 conferences in Division 1 receive an automatic bid, which goes to the conference tournament champion. The only exception is the Ivy League, who has no tournament and awards their bid to the regular season champion.

The other 34 bids are the "at-large" bids, which go to the best remaining teams in the nation that did not win their conference tournament.

These "at-large" teams are chosen by a selection committee made up of nine university and conference administrators, who are named to the committee by their peers. The committee is also responsible for the seeding of teams within the tournament bracket, based on a review of their season performance.

But, wait, you say! How do you put 65 teams into a bracket?

The committee takes the two lowest ranked teams and place them in a "play-in" game. This winner of this game is placed into one of the brackets as a #16 seed and the 64-team field is set.

How do they get in?

There are many factors that comprise the "resume" of a team when examining them for NCAA Tournament consideration. The following are three of the key determining factors used by the selection committee:

RPI: The RPI, or Ratings Percentage Index, is the main ranking system used by the selection committee. The RPI is not released to the public, although many media outlets create their own RPI based on the formula that is believed to be used. Some of the main statistics included in the RPI equation are:

Wins Schedule strength, Strength of conference Results against common opponents Team record over the last 10 games of the season

Quality Wins/Bad Losses: There is no definition of what constitutes a quality win or a bad loss, yet it is one of the main factors in comparing the resumes of teams. With 326 teams competing in Division 1 basketball, one person's quality win is another person's unimpressive win. The same goes for the losses. So, as you might expect, there is much debate over this factor. Obviously, a win over a team ranked in the Top 10 would be a quality win and a loss to a team with a very poor record would be a bad loss. The committee takes a thorough look at the schedules and makes a determination as to which win and losses stand out.

Intangibles/Reputation: This is the unspoken factor. The stature of a program and their performance in previous NCAA Tournaments cannot be ignored by the committee. This is often the deciding factor or tiebreaker between teams when their raw statistics are too close to favor one over the other.

Maryland is a team to keep an eye on in this regard. The Terps won the 2002 National Championship, are a member of the powerful ACC and carry a streak of 10 consecutive NCAA Tournament bids into this season. They have a record of 14-11, with a 5-9 record in conference play. In most cases, the committee would not even go further into the resume of this team because of their mediocre record. However, because of their reputation and past performance, Maryland is still mentioned by pundits around the nation as a "bubble" team that may sneak in if they can win a few more games.

Another intangible to watch out for is what I will call the "walk-out factor". One of the rules of the selection committee is that a member must leave the room when a discussion is taking place concerning their school, or if they are a commissioner, their conference. Although the member must leave the room during these discussions, you can be sure all of the other members are well aware of the influence that is held by the missing member.

One of the most disturbing examples of the effect of the "walk-out factor" occurred in 2000. The committee chair was Craig Thompson, commissioner of the newly formed Mountain West Conference. When the selections were announced, Mountain West member UNLV was curiously among the teams given a tournament bid while Virginia became the first team in history to be denied a bid despite a winning record in the ACC. Vanderbilt and Notre Dame, two other schools with impressive resumes, were excluded as well. This lead to one of the most memorable interviews ever on ESPN, as Dick Vitale berated Thompson repeatedly for his inclusion of UNLV at the expense of schools that had much better resumes.

The point to be made here is that the influence of the committee members is always present in the room, whether they are or not. It is an intangible that cannot be measured or anticipated.

Who's in and who's on the bubble?

Now, for those of you who are still awake, we move on to the current state of affairs in the battle for bids to the 2004 NCAA Tournament.

Let's take a closer look at the top conferences in the nation and the teams that have all but locked up a bid or are trying to solidify their resume in order to remain in consideration.

Key: * RPI-Ratings Percentage Index * SOS-Strength of Schedule * QW-Quality Wins * BL-Bad Losses

ACC

In (5): Duke, NC State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, North Carolina Bubble: Florida State, Maryland

Florida State (17-11 overall, 6-9 conference) will need a win at Georgia Tech in the regular season finale to get the seventh conference win that should put them over the top. If FSU stumbles, Maryland (14-11, 5-9) can swoop in and steal the bid if they can win at NC State, at home against Virginia and win a game in the first round of the ACC Tournament. Maryland's RPI (32) and their excellent SOS (3) keep them alive. However, they must win their next three games or they are out. Should both FSU and Maryland not reach seven conference wins and get bounced in the first round of the ACC Tournament, it is possible that the ACC only gets five bids.

Atlantic 10

In (2): St Joseph's, Dayton Bubble: Richmond, George Washington, Xavier

The A-10 will likely get a second bid to go along with undefeated St. Joseph's (26-0, 15-0). Dayton (21-6, 11-3) does not have a big win on the resume, but two wins over Richmond (17-11, 9-6) and an RPI of 40 offset that deficiency. George Washington (16-9, 10-4) missed a big opportunity to improve their standing by losing at home to Richmond on Sunday. Xavier (17-10, 8-6) has non-conference QW over Alabama and Cincinnati, but a home loss to lowly Duquesne this past weekend hurt their chances severely.

Big 10

In (3): Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin Bubble: Michigan, Iowa, Purdue

Michigan (16-9, 7-7) closes the season on the road against Northwestern and Indiana. They have a case if they win both and are helped by an early season QW over NC State. An RPI of 73 will probably close the door on Iowa (15-10, 8-6) and an RPI of 90 should keep out Purdue (17-10, 7-7) as well.

Big 12

In (3): Oklahoma State, Texas, Kansas Bubble: Texas Tech, Missouri, Colorado, Oklahoma

Bobby Knight and Texas Tech (19-9, 7-7) have lost seven of their last 10. They need to finish up strong and not rely on their RPI (33) to get them in. Missouri (15-10, 9-5) has been a disappointment all season after being a pre-season Final Four choice. However, a win at Texas Tech this week would give them a tremendous boost. Missou's RPI (35) and SOS (8) are certainly worthy of a bid. Colorado (17-8, 9-5) may finish with 11 conference wins, but their RPI (52) and SOS (72) are cause for concern. Oklahoma (16-9, 6-8) has a streak of nine consecutive tournament appearances on the line. They could not ask for an easier finish to the regular season than home games with Texas A&M and Baylor. RPI (36) and SOS (39) do the job.

Big East

In (6): Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Providence, Seton Hall, Syracuse, Boston College Bubble: Rutgers

Seton Hall (19-7, 9-5) has won their last three games to clinch a winning record in the conference. Syracuse (19-6, 9-5) ended the 40-game home winning streak of Pittsburgh (25-3, 11-3) with a stunning 49-46 overtime victory. Assuming Boston College (19-8, 8-6) beats last-place St. John's at home, they will be on the safe side as well. It would be hard to imagine the Big East sending seven teams, but Rutgers (16-9, 7-7) still has to be mentioned in the discussion. However, they will have to win their final two games at Virginia Tech and home against Seton Hall to have a shot. Their RPI (34) and SOS (18) makes Rutgers hard to ignore until for the moment.

Conference USA

In (5): Memphis, Cincinnati, Charlotte, UAB, Louisville Bubble: DePaul

It has been a very competitive race in Conference USA, which has emerged as one of the best conferences in the nation. Five teams have clearly made their case that they are tournament bound, including upstart UAB (17-8, 10-4). The Blazers have forced opponents into 20.8 turnovers per game and boast an exceptional turnover margin of +6.6. Their defensive pressure could surprise someone in the tournament, although their poor rebounding may catch up to them if they are matched up with a big front court. Don't be fooled by Louisville (18-7, 8-6), as Rick Pitino's team has lost six of their last eight games. They have been finding ways to lose and don't look confident going into March. DePaul (17-8, 10-4) has crept into the picture by winning six of seven. With an RPI of 49 and no non-conference QW to speak of, their chance for a bid is likely on the line when they host Cincinnati (20-5, 11-3) on Wednesday.

Pac-10

In (2): Stanford, Arizona Bubble: Washington

Aside from the success of No. 1 ranked Stanford (25,0, 16,0), the Pac-10 is as poor as it has been in recent memory. It's hard to believe that they will only receive two bids, but it looks that way at this point. Usual contenders like UCLA, USC and Oregon have all disappointed. Arizona (18-8, 10-7), a perennial national power, has even struggled this year. Washington (15,-10, 10-6) needs to upset Stanford this week to get themselves a bid.

SEC

In (5): Mississippi St, Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida, Vanderbilt Bubble: LSU, Alabama

Vanderbilt (18-7, 7-7) is finishing strong and could be dangerous in the NCAA Tournament. They shoot the ball well from the field and the line, while keeping turnovers to a minimum. LSU (17-8, 7-7) should make the field if they can split their last two games to ensure a .500 record in conference play. They are very strong in the RPI (26) and SOS (25). Alabama (15-10, 7-7) does not have an impressive record, but boasts a SOS of two and non-conference wins over Wisconsin and Charlotte. They also won at conference leader Mississippi State. It is possible that the SEC could send seven if things break properly.

Other Teams to Watch

Gonzaga (25-2, 14-0): The Zags are no longer a "sleeper." They will probably get a No. 2 seed in the tournament and have a real shot at the Final Four.

Southern Illinois (24-2, 17-0): The leaders of the Missouri Valley Conference have played only one Top 50 team all year (Charlotte) and lost. They have also had some close calls against inferior conference opponents. Many will have them as a tournament "sleeper," but I'm not convinced. Things will be much different when the bright lights of the tourney stage are shining on the Salukis.

Nevada (18-8, 11-5): This is a team out of the WAC that beat Kansas by 14 earlier this year. They probably need to win the conference tournament to get in, but if they do, they will not be intimidated.

BYU (18-7, 8-4): The Cougars have a very solid RPI (38) for a team out of the Mountain West Conference. They knocked off Oklahoma State earlier this year and come down the stretch having won seven in a row. Other conference contenders such as Air Force and Utah will battle them down to the wire

Utah State (24-2, 16-1): The Aggies of the Big West have been a favorite of the pollsters all year long. However, their only major test this year was at Utah where they lost by 11. This is another of the "mid-major" powers that hopes to make noise in the tournament. That remains to be seen.

Next week we will update and review the conferences and the bubble situation. Also, I'll offer a few of my own "sleepers" that could surprise in the tournament, as well as a few teams to avoid hanging your hat on in the company office pool.