Spring Training preview -- NL East (Pt. 4)

By Peter Friberg Sports Central Columnist

With Spring Training now in session and the Boys of Summer awaking from their winter hibernation, it's time to start thinking baseball.

This time around, we will look at the National League East Division.

Atlanta has some very good hitters, some very good pitchers, and a history of getting it done. The "experts" were bemoaning Atlanta GM John Schuerholtz's inability to address a very offensive offense. Adding OF Gary Sheffield (.311/.417/.593 - batting average/on-base/slugging), provided a vehicle that may save Schuerholtz's legacy as Atlanta's GM.

The Braves offense was 15th in pitches seen, 11th in walks, and 13th in runs scored -- if that doesn't tell you it pays to be patient, I give up. Only Chipper Jones (.330/.427/.605) had an on-base percentage above .340 and behind Jones' 98, the highest walk total on the team belonged to Andruw Jones (.251/.312/.461) with 57.

Sheffield will immediately provide one of the best right-handed bats to go along with Jones who is easily the best switch-hitter in baseball. Not only does Sheffield show patience at the plate, he, unlike most power-hitters, doesn't swing and miss. Sheffield has had more walks than strikeouts every year since 1993. In today's free-swinging environment, that's quite an accomplishment.

If you've been listening (or reading) to the comments coming out of Atlanta, as happy as they are about Sheffield's acquisition, some are saying Rafael Furcal's (.275/.321/.370) presence could be more important. Furcal's on-base percentage came down markedly from his rookie campaign when he reached base at a .394 clip. If he can have a healthy season with a .375+ on-base average, the Braves could score 850 runs; they scored 729 in 2001.

For the first time in at least a decade, people are more concerned about the Braves' pitchers than the hitters. While no one is concerned with Greg Maddux (3.05 ERA in 233.0 innings), and very few are concerned about Tom Glavine (3.57 in 219.1), people are openly questioning the back three starters in the rotation. Their concern is not without merit.

If Kevin Millwood (4.31 in 121.0), Jason Marquis (3.48 in 129.1), and Albie Lopez (4.81 in 205.2) do not collectively pitch well, there is very little help in line behind them (in terms of available, ready starting pitching in the minors). The bullpen does, however, look good.

John Smoltz (3.36 in 59.0) pitched very effectively in relief last year converting 10 of 11 saves with a 1.59 ERA in relief. With lefty Mike Remlinger (2.76 in 75.0) and righty Kerry Lightenberg (3.02 in 59.2) setting up for Smoltz, the Braves' bullpen should be among the best in the NL.

If this team stays healthy, they could run away with the East. At worst (assuming good health), they'll be in a dogfight for the division title and wild card.

Florida's focal point may be its' rookie hurler. And he may determine this season's outcome. RHP Josh Beckett (1.50 in 24.0) has the ability to dominate. He is a future "ace." However, while 24 innings is but a drop in the bucket, Beckett can't average a walk almost every other inning if he wants to be successful in the big leagues.

The rest of the pitching staff is also young and talented. Unfortunately for Marlin's fans, with that youth comes the typical learning curve. The Fish pitchers gave up the second most walks last season. New manager Jeff Torberg has to instill the philosophy that walking people is not an option. If he can do that, this team has the talent to challenge for a division title almost immediately. If he fails in that endeavor, or worse, doesn't attempt to instill it, he'll relegate the Marlins to bottom feeders.

The Marlin hitters also have some interesting characters. CF Preston Wilson (.274/.331/.494), and LF Cliff Floyd (.317/.390/.578), are both hitters that most pitchers don't want to face. But just like the pitchers need to give up fewer BB, the hitters need to take more of them (Florida was 13th in the NL in walks last season).

This team will likely stay out of last place this season, but that is not a positive statement. The Fish could be players in the division title or at least in the wild card hunt. But there's no evidence that says Torberg is the right man to lead them out of a funk. He may be their downfall.

Montreal will play in 2002. Okay, you've read that story already ... then I'll tell you how they will do.

Like their divisional counterparts in Florida, the Expos are a talented team with little direction and less hope. And while it is somewhat unlikely that contraction will ever take place, it is also unlikely that players will want to play for this team in its current iteration.

However, the Expos are hardly devoid of talent. They have a hitter and a pitcher who are each among the best in the game. Vladimir Guerrero (.307/.377/.586) had his worst year since his rookie campaign - and it wasn't a bad year. And Javier Vasquez (3.42 in 223.2) should probably keep space clear on his mantle; he will win a Cy Young award some day.

The Expos also have 2B Jose Vidro (.319/.371/.486) and SS Orlando Cabrera (.276/.324/.428) who are quietly among the better players at their positions.

There's no reason this team or its fans should expect to play in the postseason this year. But teams who are a lot less talented put a lot more butts in the seats.

I saw my boss' son recently. He was wearing a Montreal Expos hat. Nice touch, Jeremiah.

That kind of support and an outcry of rage towards Bud Selig and company probably did more to prevent contraction than any judge's ruling. And it will have a more positive long-term effect.

If you have the opportunity, check out the Expos this season. While they may not be contracted, but this is probably the last year you'll ever see the name "Montreal" in the standings.

New York provided the most offseason action this year. And while it definitely made the Mets better, I don't think they overtook Atlanta (well they did, but when the Braves got Sheff, they moved back into the driver's seat).

The Mets are significantly better than last season. Adding Robbie Alomar (.336/.415/.541) was the biggest acquisition. He is the best offensive second baseman in baseball. Having Robbie to get on-base in front of Mike Piazza (.300/.384/.573) and company, will do wonders for an offense that ranked last in runs scored (642).

The Mets also traded for 1B Mo Vaughn, RF Jeromy Burnitz (.251/.347.504), and signed LF, leadoff batter, Rodger Cedeno (.293/.337/.396).

Vaughn missed all of 2001 with a ruptured bicep (or was it his triceps?), but posted .272/.365/.508 in 2000 with Anaheim.

Cedeno would have led the American League in stolen bases last year, but a feud with Tiger's manager Phil Garner kept him out of most of September's (and October's) games. He finished one behind Ichiro with 56.

The Mets' pitching was last year's strength. However, after trading much of it to get many of the new hitters their lineup ... last year's strength has become this year's question mark.

Pedro Astacio (5.09 in 169.2), Jeff D'Amico (6.08 in 47.1), Shawn Estes (4.02 in 159.0), Steve Trachsel (4.46 in 173.2), and Bruce Chen (4.87 in 146.0) will all back up the one really good pitcher the Mets have in their starting rotation, Al Leiter (3.31 in 187.1).

The Mets won't have problems scoring runs; SS Rey Ordenez (.247/.299/.336) is the only offensive hole the Mets have. But when you look at the stats, only Robbie Alomar and Mike Piazza posted OPS over .900. The Braves' have two hitters who were over 1.000 last year. The Mets did close the gap - and considerably -- but for now, the Braves are still the team to beat in the East.

Philadelphia could do without the turmoil. But then it wouldn't be Philly, would it?

Third-baseman Scott Rolen (.289/.378/.498) is easily the best defensive third baseman in the game. But some seem to think his offensive skills are equal to his defensive ones. His 25 HR and his .876 OPS both rank fourth among NL third basemen. While I am not accusing him of being a slouch, I think the Phillies are lucky he didn't accept their $14 mil/per year offer. That's a lot of scratch to tie up on a player who isn't even the best offensive player on his team, or in his league at his position. That being said, if he leaves, the Phils do not have a third baseman in their minors who can adequately play the position. Catch-22 ...

The Phils did sign OF Bobby Abreu (.293/.393/.543) to an extension. Anyone notice that Bobby had a 30-30 year last season? To be honest, I didn't, either -- until well after the season was over ... Bobby was the offensive catalyst that kept the Phils in first for most of 2001.

Leftfielder Pat Burrell (.259/.346/.469) hasn't put up all-star numbers yet, but all-star numbers are exactly what many experts are expecting him to post this year. His 27 HR were second on the team in what was his first full season in the Majors. He should continue to improve and could help this team remain in contention even if the Rolen-show distracts the Philly Phans from the game on the field.

Catcher Mike Lieberthal (.231/.316./.347) only played in 34 games before his season-ending injury. He is a much better hitter than the numbers above indicate and is a solid backstop. His return this season could provide a lift for both the lineup and the pitching staff.

While everyone outside of the Phillies brain-trust scoffed at 2000/2001 free agent acquisitions Rheal Cormier (4.21 in 51.1) and Jose Mesa (2.34 in 69.1 with 42 saves), both pitched brilliantly in the first half and were respectable (and worth the money) overall. Cormier needs to pitch at least as well as he did in '01 and likewise, Mesa needs to be strong again for the Phillies to be contenders.

With the improvements made in Atlanta and New York, third seems like a reasonable finish for 2002. Though if either the Mets or the Braves stumble, this team will be quick to charge into the race and cannot be discounted.

Article courtesy of Sports Central.