Breaking down "The Big Dance"

The moment when we all cheer or root against colleges we never heard of has arrived. It's NCAA tournament folks and good luck to everyone participating in office pools. Let's break it down..

The No. 1 seeds are as follows: Texas in the South, Kentucky in the Midwest, Oklahoma in the East, and Arizona in the West, which is the toughest region of the four.

The West has two other teams that were close to being a No. 1 seed near the end of the regular season, Duke and Kansas. The Jayhawks of Kansas won the Big 12 tournament crown, but were denied a No. 1 seed over Oklahoma, which is also in the Big 12 and happens to be the most controversial of the No. 1 seeds.

Arizona might have purposely tanked their PAC-10 tournament game versus UCLA in order to be more properly rested for the NCAA tournament. In no way should any team have lost to that Bruin team, but Arizona coach Lute Olson had bigger plans in mind.

The Wildcats have a very solid team and have been a power all season. They have an eclectic mix of talented veteran and young players. Including the backcourt of sophomore Salim Stoudamire and Jason Gardener, and not to forget talented senior forward Luke Walton (yes, son of Bill), nothing but winning it all has been on their minds the whole season.

Kansas has had similar expectations also. Led by Kirk Hinrich and Nick Collison, they are out to prove to the committee they should be a No. 1 seed.

Notre Dame and Creighton were top 15 ranked teams for a large portion of the season, which means they are much well better than their seeding.

My heart lies with the Chippewas of Central Michigan however. They have their work cut out for them versus Duke. It is worth noting that the last time Duke played a team from the Great Lakes State in the NCAA tournament was in 1996. That year the Blue Devils played Eastern Michigan, and the Eagles were too much for the Chris Collins led Blue Devils that day.

My West pick: Kansas, but watch out for the Irish.

In the south, the Texas Longhorns have been given the seed of numero uno. They are led by possible national player of the year TJ Ford. This dynamic point guard is one of the quickest in all of the land of basketball and he can carry the 'Horns with his strong play.

Texas is fortunate that, other than UConn, Stanford, Florida, Xavier and Maryland, all the teams in their bracket are lucky to be in the tournament at all. Michigan State lost to Toledo at home and were blown out on the road versus Wisconsin and Illinois. Plus, the Spartans are reluctant that Michigan, put themselves on probation and Ohio State didn't win the Big Ten Conference tournament on Sunday or they would have NIT arrangements to make. Colorado played tough in a lot of their Big 12 games, but still racked up a lot of conferences losses, finishing 5-11 in Big 12 play.

Both Purdue and LSU have been on the outside looking in at the top of their conferences too. Gene Keady has never taken any of his teams to the Final Four, so history is also against the Boilermakers.

The Musketeers of Xavier also have one of the best players in the NCAA in senior forward David West. But, they also lost to three of the top teams in their conference -- Stanford, Alabama, and Mississippi State.

Florida has been one of the more exciting teams to watch this year. They were on track to being a No. 1 seed, but faded slightly towards the end of the season and also lost two times to Kentucky. They have a great young point guard in Matt Walsh.

My South pick: Texas over Florida in the Elite Eight. This bracket is too easily laid out for both teams to succeed.

In the Midwestern Regional, the Kentucky Wildcats storm into this bracket having won 23 in a row, including all their SEC games. Although, Alabama was an unexpected non-contender this year.

Tubby Smith's Wildcat team is very balanced and deep. Ten players average significant minutes and their leading scorer, senior guard Keith Bogans, is averaging only 15.8 points per game.

Their toughest competition will come from third-seeded Marquette. The Golden Eagles, no longer the Warriors, have another one of the best players in all of the land, junior guard Dewayne Wade. Averaging 21.4 points per game, this guard hasn't been scared to shoot the most crucial of shots all year.

The No. 2 seed Pittsburgh squad will have a rough go of it since their team leader, point guard Brandon Knight, is averaging in the 50 percentile range from the free throw line. He must remain on the floor late in the game for Pitt to be successful, however, the "hack-a-Knight" strategy will be in place and could hurt them.

My Midwestern pick: No surprise Kentucky, maybe their toughest game might come at the hand of Utah in the second round. No coach likes to face this team coached by very fine coach Rick Majerus.

In the East, the committee placed both Oklahoma teams -- the Sooners of Oklahoma and the Cowboys of Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma head coach Kelvin Sampson was reluctant to get a No. 1 seed, but will also be reluctant to make it to the Final Four if Syracuse can advance to the Elite Eight. The East Regional Championship round is going to be played in Albany, NY, giving the 'Cuse possibly one of the dumbest advantages ever given to an unworthy team by the tournament committee.

The Sooners do have the rightful advantage of playing in Oklahoma City for the first two rounds, although I am not sure how Oklahoma City is considered an eastern city in the United States.

Wake Forest is a team that got hot at the end of the year, but I also see that they might be upset in the second round by St. Joseph. Junior guard Jameer Nelson should put significant fear into the Demon Deacons. Neither team has a lot of significant contributions from their big men, which calls for an up and down game. Josh Howard will have his work cut out for him to make it by this team, and then even more to make it by Carmello Anthony and the Syracuse Orangeman in Albany.

My East pick: Syracuse, it's theirs to lose now with the home court advantage.

Final Four

* #3 Syracuse vs. #1 Texas: TJ Ford will prove that the Orangeman being in New Orleans was a fluke.

* #2 Kansas vs. #1 Kentucky: Roy Williams has struggled to make it past this point in the past, and I don't see him doing it this year either. But, this should be a very exciting high paced game to watch.

Final

Kentucky and Texas: The Wildcats seemed to forget how to lose at this point and probably won't remember how. The up-tempo Wildcats will force the 'Horns into numerous turnovers leading to easy baskets and a double-digit victory for the men from the Bluegrass State. Hopefully, we'll all get to see Ashley Judd in attendance also.

By Aaron Lisker
Published: 3/18/2003
 
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