Crunch time for Mbeki's Africa plan

Thabo Mbeki flies to Harare today and on to London tomorrow for a meeting that could ring the death knell for his vaunted "Marshall Plan for Africa" - and Tony Blair's leading role in promoting it - if the South African president fails to make a stand against Zimbabwe's disputed election.

Mr Mbeki is unlikely to win major concessions from Robert Mugabe today, and so will have to make a crucial decision at a meeting in London on the Commonwealth's response to the Zimbabwe crisis.

Mr Mbeki, with President Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria and Australia's prime minister, John Howard, will consider whether to impose sanctions after the organisation's monitors concluded that the presidential election was held in a "climate of fear".

While the range of options open to the Commonwealth is limited, with Zimbabwe's removal from the organisation being the most serious sanction available, Mr Mbeki's position at the meeting could have profound consequences for the rest of his continent and the renaissance plan he moulded.

At the core of the New Partnership for African Development (Nepad) is a commitment by the continent's leaders to good governance, democratic principles and to holding one another accountable in exchange for western financial and technical assistance.

Mr Blair is Nepad's best friend in the west. He has pushed it forward at G8 meetings and brought it to the attention of a resistant US administration.

But if Mr Mbeki is seen to side with Mr Mugabe in the coming days, the US has said Nepad will be dead in the water and the moral pressure on Europe and the major industrialised nations to embrace the plan will fall away.

The American government has already said it does not recognise Mr Mugabe's victory. The chairman of the US Congress's Africa sub-committee, Ed Royce, warned Mr Mbeki that Washington's view of Nepad hangs in the balance.

"The South African government may not like it, but the reality is that it will be harder to aid the continent if Americans perceive that South Africa and the region is unwilling to stand up for democratic principles," he said.

Mr Mbeki already faces an uphill struggle to counter the perception that Africa is still dominated by authoritarian leaders concerned with protecting their own.

One of Mr Mugabe's most successful tactics in the past two years has been to portray his strategy to hang on to power as a contest between African liberation and stooges for modern western imperialism.

The ploy strikes a chord among bitter African leaders hamstrung by the realities of global economics, IMF programmes and young populations with little memory of the sacrifices of liberation wars.

After the election, Tanzania's Benjamin Mkapa called Mr Mugabe a "champion of democracy". The presidents of Kenya and Namibia were no less approving. The Organisation of African Unity said the election was free and fair.

But for the rest of the world, it is what Mr Mbeki does that will matter. The initial impression is that the South African government has sided with Mr Mugabe.

On Friday, the ANC issued a statement in Mr Mbeki's name endorsing the ballot but later said it was the party's view not the president's, even though he is the party leader. A day earlier, South Africa's deputy president, Jacob Zuma, said the elections were "legitimate".

Confidence in Mr Mbeki has been further undermined by the statements of his cabinet ministers who joined a delegation of regional election observers.

Steve Tshwete, the safety and security minister, said he was "impressed" with arrangements for the ballot. The labour minister, Membathisi Mdladlana, justified political arrests.

Mr Mbeki has tried to argue that these are not necessarily his views. But, in the absence of any firm statements to the contrary, they are likely to be taken by the rest of the world as those of the South African government.

"Mbeki has to take a clear and unequivocal position that this election was not legitimate," said a diplomat from a Commonwealth country. "Otherwise I think he can kiss goodbye to Nepad. No one will actually say they don't believe in the plan anymore, but it will be hard not to conclude that the promise of accountability and good governance has fallen at the first hurdle."

The Zimbabwean opposition and civic groups are also looking to Mr Mbeki to speak up for democracy.

His ministers angered many in Zimbabwe before the election by dismissing political murders and violence as no worse than in South Africa.

"We don't want to be judged by African standards," said Reginald Matchaba-Hove, head of Zimbabwe's largest independent election monitoring group. "They are not a very good example. We want to be judged by Zimbabwean standards and, by those, 120 people killed is a lot. This is the worst election since independence and we want those who say they champion democracy to recognise that fact."