MLB: Team Midas looks strong again

By Chrys Kefalas Article courtesy of CPKSports.com Editor-in-Chief

The sun creeps over the massive concrete, glass, and steal block that encloses the field, highlighting dark green stadium chairs in the upperdeck. The penetrating rays illuminate the goldenrod and Keenland green grass in short centerfield. And, in the distance the dense fog hovers over the city just over the bridge. It’s simply another winter morning at Oakland’s Network Associates Coliseum. No players taking the field to stretch, no one working out their hitting mechanics in the batting cage, and general manager Billy Beane doesn’t sit in the executive box looking for ways to improve his team ... well, at least not in Oakland; not yet.

Just a $99 Northwest Airlines economy flight from Oakland to Phoenix and you are only minutes away from the spring headquarters of a team destined for a sensational run in the American League West. Today, March 11, 2001, the Athletics pounded out 18 hits in annihilating the San Francisco Giants 12-6. Shortstop Miguel Tejada had a two-run homer and outfielder Terrance Long went three for three. Spring stats and wins only mean so much, the test comes, of course, during the regular season when the A’s attempt to fend off the power potent Texas Rangers, the surprisingly capable Seattle Mariners, and the rather peculiar Anaheim Angels.

1. Oakland Athletics (91-70 in 2000)

Unlike the many market investors, the Oakland Athletics, of late, have demonstrated a Midas touch. The team traded for Johnny Damon over the winter, giving them their most dangerous offensive weapon at the lead-off spot since Rickey Henderson patrolled leftfield in the mid and late 1980s. General Manage Billy Beane also made judicious use of team funds; re-signing closer Jason Isringhausen, picking up the option on Gil Heredia, acquiring free agent left-handed reliever Mark Gunthrie, and trading for (yes, this will turn out a major move) pitcher Cory Lidle. One must not fail to add to the equation co-owner Steve Schott’s continued attempt to move the team to wealthy Santa Clara, California and, thus, build a viable financial model that will propel the Athletics from small market status. Those things teamed with a pool of talent already, among baseball’s best, and one doesn’t just want to make a short term buy but project a good long term holding.

America, meet the team of this decade.

The Oakland offense received much of the credit for a spectacular 2000 valuation, but a look closer at the fundamentals suggests that the path to success came from a solid starting rotation. Led by the best young pitcher in the American League, Tim Hudson, Oakland’s rotation tied the Seattle Mariners for most wins in the American League (71), placed third in earned run average (4.62), and finished second, behind the Boston Red Sox in batting average against (.268). They return their entire starting rotation in 2001. Tim Hudson will once again anchor after following an 18 win season with 20.

Hudson completed a solid sophomore season, though he saw some typical second-year skill declines. A low strand rate and sometimes erratic control led to an ERA above 4.00 (4.14). However, his control improved slightly in the second half and he should bounce back with a sub-4.00 ERA in 2001 to the jubilation of many fantasy owners and A’s fans. If Hudson avoids injury, don’t expect his win totals to decline -- not on this team.

Next in line, the young left-handed surprise of 2000, Barry Zito. Zito, 23, pitched remarkably, posting a microscopic 2.72 ERA with 7 wins. Some publications have already predicted a 20 win season for the young star, but let us not make a Yahoo! for $240 stock investment here -- even with a .195 batting average against. The CPKSPORTS.com projection: 3.90 ERA & 16 Wins ... still way better than Yahoo! at $16.375 a share and still falling.

The support staff continues with the unheralded, yet, consistent veteran Gil Heredia. At 35 years-old, one shouldn’t expect much improvement from his 15-11 record and 4.13 earned run average. Rather, expect a decline more in check with a 4.30 ERA (which may rise closer to 5.00) and somewhere between 10-12 wins, possibly a few shy from his career high of 15 set last year.

The next two spots currently offer a battle between veteran Omar Olivares, Mark Mulder, and Cory Lidle. Assuming the Athletics do the smart thing and move the over-hyped and one-year wonder Olivares (that happened in 1999 with a 4.17 ERA and 15-11 record) to a gullible team (before his price really drops!), that leaves Mulder and Lidle filling the remaining two slots. Cory Lidle, acquired from Tampa Bay in the off-season, won 10 games and had a 4.79 ERA with the Rays in 2001. Highly acclaimed Ron Shandler, author of the yearly Baseball Forecaster and publisher of Baseballhq.com, writes: "Only things standing between him and major success is health, and a solid infield defense." CPKSPORTS.com tends to agree and looks for a major season out of the 29-year-old right hander that will force manager Art Howe to move him into the rotation’s third spot (Read: Buy). The swing man’s duties of the rotation rests with, still learning the ropes, Mark Mulder. The path to reaching the level of baseball’s better arms still will offer the typical bumps and curves that most young pitchers experience, but, the extremes should subside-- a bit. This is pitcher with an enormous potential who simply needs to learn how to pitch. That will come with time and some lessons from the school of hard knocks. A good long term prospect, stay away from a short-term position (Last year: 9-10 with a 5.44 ERA, 2001 should show slight improvement).

The analysis, however, can not stop with the starting rotation ... it would be as if CNBC’s "experts" stopped just before they were going to take a look at the NASDAQ (have faith my friends things will eventually improve-- let’s hope). As volatile as the stock market, bullpens have a tendency to pattern some of the trends. They can go through periods of dominance and, then, days or weeks when they tumble. Luckily, the Oakland Athletics have some stable positions in the bullpen, including closer Jason Isringhausen (6 Wins, 36 Saves, & a 3.78 ERA in 2000), set-up man specialist Jim Mecir (10 wins, 5 Saves, & a 2.96 ERA in 2000), lefty Mike Magnate (1 Win & a 4.17 ERA in 2000), and Jeff Tam (3 Wins, 3 Saves, & a 2.63 ERA in 2000). The speculative positions include hard throwing right-hander T.J. Mathews and free agent acquisition Mark Gunthrie. Mathews had a 6.03 ERA last season but also suffered from elbow tendinitis, forcing him onto the DL in August. Acquired in the Mark McGwire deal, Mathews has a career 3.80 ERA and should rebound nicely with health concerns at ease. The A’s signed Gunthrie to a two-year, $3.6 million, contract to work as a left-handed specialist. Last season for the Chicago Cubs, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, and the Toronto Blue Jays, Gunthrie had a 4.68 ERA and won three games.

Finally, we arrive to the headline grabbers of this team, the offense. The "next Ken Griffey Jr." Ben Grieve no longer will patrol rightfield (Oakland pitchers celebrated his exit) but that’s not a cause to worry because this offense packs a mightier punch than last season. You can hear that screaming baseball on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight in the background now. Oakland led the American League with 239 total home runs, finished second to the White Sox with 908 RBIs, had the third highest on base percentage (.360), and scored the second most runs (947). Nevertheless there was still room for improvement. The team led the American League in strike outs (1,159) and stole, a Major League low, 40 bases. Can anyone say one dimensional? Not anymore, the product line just improved. Johnny Damon brings his speed, power, and average to a team in need of a legitimate lead-off hitter. In his peak years, one expects that Damon should duplicate (if not even surpass) his incredible 2000 campaign that produced 46 stolen bases, a .327 batting average, 16 home runs, 88 RBIs, and a .327 on base percentage.

Want more improvement? Check shortstop Miguel Tejada’s three year trend and there’s reason for exuberance and in this case Mr. Greenspan it isn’t "irrational." Power numbers rose (11 HR-21 HR-30 HR), average rose (.233- .251 -.275), and on based percentage rose (.298 -.325 -.349). Expect the trend to continue in an upward climb. Then, you have a healthy John Jaha stepping back into the lineup and a second basemen with the offensive tools for greatness, Jose Ortiz (he will, however, need to work on his Knoublauchian glove work-- 32 errors last season), the continued maturation of Eric Chavez and this is just outright scary. Oh yes, pardon the oversight, Jason Giambi bats cleanup after ending last season with a miraculous .474 on based percentage, a .372 batting average, 43 home runs, and 137 runs batted in. Sure he might show this year that he is human but this is a perennial MVP candidate. Amazing.

AL West Champions? Bank on it.

Concise, Precise Knowledge On The Rest

2. Texas Rangers (71-91 in 2000)

This is an entirely speculative play. Owner Tom Hicks and general manager Doug Melvin will not sit quiet with a rotation and bullpen in such ill-repair for very long. This team offers a prolific offense with shortstop Alex Rodriguez joining Ivan Rodriguez, Rafeal Palmeiro, Andres Galarraga, Ken Caminiti, and Gabe Kapler but it’s not enough to make up for the worst bullpen in the majors -- right now (Add Ugueth Urbina to the mix and things get interesting). The rotation also isn’t a source of hope with Rick Helling and Kenny Rogers providing the only formidable names from a group that includes Ryan Glynn, Doug Davis, Aaron Myette, Darren Oliver, and once solid Justin Thompson.

3. Seattle Mariners (91-71 in 2000)

They lost Ken Griffey Jr. in 1999 and now they will play without Alex Rodriguez ... so you think people in Rain City, USA might have serious bouts with depression. Easy Prozac suppliers, this team once again returns a good squad capable of excelling. Ichiro Suzuki attempts to provide the Mariners with their second successful Japanese import in as many years. The winner of seven straight batting titles in Japan may lead off or bat third and must set the stage for designated hitter Edgar Martinez, first basemen John Olerud, and leftfielder Jay Buhner. The team’s success rests on their rotation. The mix of Freddy Garcia, Aaron Sele, Jamie Moyer, Gil Meche, John Halama, Paul Abbott, and Bret Tomko may be the most capable starting pitching depth any American League team has. Don’t be surprised if Gillick acquires an infielder with some pop to help soften the Rodriguez blow (Phil Nevin?).

4. Anaheim Angels (82-80 in 2000)

The team lost Mo Vaughn for virtually the entire season. Yet things do not look so bleak, far from a buy, maybe even a hold (who knows what Disney is doing with this team) but fans may find a surprise or two out of SoCal. The Angels offense should still manage to score runs without Vaughn at first. Erstad, Salmon, G. Anderson, Canseco, and Spiezio are able hitters. The fun may be in a major comeback year for Ismael Valdes and the emergence of Ramon Ortiz as a viable rotation arm. Injuries always play a part with the Angels but if these two stay healthy they lay the groundwork for another 80-85 win season.

Now remember please do your own research before investing.

Article courtesy of CPKSports.com