Fantasy Sports: 2004 Fantasy Points League preview - First Base

Your draft preview into Fantasy Baseball's source of power. Today we look at the First Base position.

OK, so the start of the 2004 MLB Season kicks-off in just a few weeks, and Fantasy owners are craving every piece of last minute info on rookies, sleepers, those due for breakout seasons, injury reports, and spring training wonders that only their stomachs can muster. The question becomes, once the information has been processed, which players will I going to draft?

In the Fantasy world, if the catcher position is like drafting the tight end or kicker in Fantasy Football, than first base must be your quarterback. There is so much depth and power at first base in 2004 that it will be simple to choose at least one and perhaps two or three quality hitters from this position at your draft. In fact, 12 players hit more than 30 home runs, 11 drove in more than 100 runs, and six first baseman hit .300 or better in 2003.

The bottom-line -- if you're not looking at first base as one of your primary sources of power your roster will be in trouble from Draft's end. In plotting a strategy, clearly do not wait to the middle rounds in selecting your first baseman or you may be stuck with a 20-25 HR player like a Kevin Millar, Erubiel Durazo, or Paul Konerko. With so many first baseman with 30-40 HR potential there are no excuses in not drafting a big-time player at this position.

Leading the pack at this position, include perennial MVP candidates and triple crown threats Albert Pujols, Todd Helton and Carlos Delgado. Not far behind are the likes of former MVP Jason Giambi and Phillies' slugger Jim Thome. First base is also helped this year with the addition of several outfielders, third baseman, designated hitters, and catchers that qualify here, including: Aubrey Huff, Adam Dunn, Brad Wilkerson, Raul Ibanez, Jay Gibbons, Frank Thomas, Shea Hillenbrand, Craig Wilson and Jason Phillips.

In 2004, the position could take on even more depth with the likes of catcher Mike Piazza and outfielder Shawn Green making the move, and emerging youngsters like Mark Teixeira, Lyle Overbay, Carlos Pena, Hee Seop Choi, Travis Hafner and Adam LaRoche should be primed for good '04 auditions.

Thus, which players will I draft in my Fantasy Points League? First Baseman, will be high on my list. Let us take a look.

2004 Projections: Average 1B Statistics: 145G / 519AB / 79R / 31 Doubles / 2 Triple / 24 Homeruns / 88 RBI / 4 SB / 69 Walks / .283 AVG

League using a Fantasy Points system of: "1 Point" for every Run, Single, RBI, and Walk; "2 Points" for every Double and Stolen Base; "3 Points" for each Triple; and "4 Points" for each Homerun; Total Points Projected for an average 1B in 2004 = 498 (3.43 PPG)

2004 1B Rankings

Todd Helton, COL (733 Total, 4.58 PPG) - What are the Rockies thinking in even considering trading one of the Game's elite hitters? Coming off an incredible .358-33-117 season, can you expect anything less? Helton is obvious motivated, adding 20 pounds of muscle in the off-season. He will not fall short to Pujols by a single at-bat and is my marquee choice in 2004. Expect a Triple Crown-caliber season of .337-40-120 to go along with 50+ doubles, 125+ runs scored, and 100+ walks.

Albert Pujols, STL (717, 4.56) - In 2003, Pujols arguably had the finest season in MLB history setting career marks in average (.358), homeruns (43), runs (137), total bases (394), and so on. The only knock on the 24 year old, is he doesn't walk or steal as much as the other greats (although his .439 OB% isn't to shabby). That's pretty knit-picky, but in Fantasy Points Leagues when compared against Todd Helton, it's quite fair. Expect comparable numbers to Helton, .337-40-121, however 20+ less walks.

Carlos Delgado, TOR (703, 4.39) - Like Helton and Pujols, Delgado should be taken in the first round of all drafts. Consistent RBI producer and may approach 50 homeruns this season. Has topped 30 or more home runs in each of the previous seven years and at 31 years of age, Delgado is one of the ML's best. Expect more of the same in '04, .289-47-133.

Jason Giambi, NYY (654, 4.18) - When healthy, Giambi is one of the game's best slugging first baseman, but a knee injury and struggles against left-handers (.192-6-30) in 2003 have raised doubts about his overall value in the minds of Fantasy observers. Although, his average (.250) dropped almost 50 points off his career mark, Giambi still managed to slug his typical 41 homeruns coupled with 100+ RBIs and walks last season. The former MVP will come at a bargain price in most drafts and you should safely expect a bounce back season of .291-38-117.

Jim Thome, PHI (630, 4.20) - Thome could easily be the top fantasy choice by the end of 2004, however questions concerning his broken finger, new ballpark effects, and his average should drop his ranking a few slots. Thus, this could make him a bargain come draft time. Thome should be in the Phillies opening day lineup showing no ill-effects of the injury suffered during this Spring and his average will approach his career mark. In his second full season in Philly, expect .280-42-120

Jeff Bagwell, HOU (630, 3.94) - Despite chronic arthritic shoulder pain and knee problems, Bagwell is still gamer and a upper tier first baseman that will go for close to .300-30-100 every single season. Bags also has averaged 160 games the last five seasons and with this Iron Horse a season of at least .287-35-112 and even 5-10 steals is a safe bet.

Richie Sexson, ARZ (630, 3.94) - If Bagwell is the modern day "Iron Horse" than Richie Sexson is last season's Cal Ripken. Sexson played in every inning of every game last year and the wise Brewers Front Office rewarded his efforts by trading him to the Arizona desert. Sexson will not miss Milwaukee as he hit just .257-23-62 as compared to .287-22-62 on the road. Bolstered by a good hitting lineup, ballpark, and team, he will easily reach .279-43-125 in '04.

Aubrey Huff, TAM (570, 3.56) - Huff is one of the lone bright stars in Tampa and judging by the pathetic attendance very few even understand the talent they have in this budding stud. In the Fantasy Baseball world, he is quickly becoming a household name and should be recognized early on in most drafts. Huff played in every game last season in the OF, 3B, and 1B, and batted over .300 for the second consecutive year while setting new career highs in HRs (34), RBIs (107), and Runs (91). It's hard to imagine a better season, but at 27, expect at least .299-28-104.

Adam Dunn, CIN (568, 3.78) - Now, with the next player selected at first base -- Adam Dunn? The same Dunn that hit just .202 with a ridiculous 100 strikeouts in 287 at bats in the first half last season and hit just .215 in 116 games before a thumb injury ended his season. Yes, really Adam Dunn and he may even be rated higher than this by season's end. The good news is and amazingly he amassed a .350 OBP with 27 Homeruns and a solid .255 second-half average showing he is worth considering in 2004. Fantasy points leagues that count walks, OBP, and SLG+OBP will be pleasantly surprised with Dunn to the tune of .253-33-93 with 89 runs and 109 walks this season. Major sleeper and mid- to late-round draft gold in '04.

Mike Sweeney, KC (517, 3.69) - One of the finest right-handed hitters in the game and one of the biggest fantasy disappointments the last two seasons due to back and neck ailments. Supposedly, Sweeney says he is back at "full strength", again, this season which means at best 140 games and a .314-23-90. Word of Warning: Sweeney has averaged just 127 games in the last three seasons and has already missed time this Spring with back spasms -- make sure you draft another capable first baseman.

Ryan Klesko, SD (533, 3.64) - Completely healthy following an injury-marred .252-21-67 2003 season, look for Klesko to be draft day bargain and bounce back with a .280-28-94-7 steals campaign this season. He will never reach 20+ steals but the move to PETCO and an improved line-up with a healthy Phil Nevin and Brian Giles will put Klesko back on the Fantasy Radar.

Rafael Palmeiro, BAL (533, 3.55) - Palmiero enjoyed another productive season in 2003, belting more than 35 homeruns for the 10th time in the last 11 seasons. However, at 39, he is in the last days as a legit 35-40 home run sacker, but nevertheless another fine season should be on the horizon for Mr. Viagra. Rafael only cares about his place in home run history (528 career HR) and with this Fantasy selfishness you can't argue with a .276-30-97 in 150 games this season.

Jay Gibbons, BAL (539, 3.47) - Gibbons is an underrated player who is primed for a huge breakout season at the age of 27. He hit a modest .270-23-100 in 160 games for the Orioles in 2003 and with a beefed up lineup of Tejeda, Lopez, and Palmeiro, the best is yet to come for this "O." Expect an improvement of at least .285-30-97 in '04.

Frank Thomas, CWS (516, 3.68) - Fantasy owners following the 2002 season believed the Big Hurt was finished. But, after a banner 2003 campaign and spectacular second half, .267-42-105, Thomas is again on the radar and should replicate his numbers to the tune of .273-30-95.

Brad Wilkerson, MON (532, 3.54) - Has batted leadoff for much of his early career and with the departure of Vladimir Guerrero, Wilkerson should settle nicely in the third or fifth spot in the Expos order. Wilkerson is one of those strange players that couples tremendous patience (89 walks and .380 OBP in '03), power potential (19 HR last season), and rising batting average with an inept tendency to strikeout (155 strikeouts in '03) way too often, especially at the top of the order. Expect an improvement across the board for this solid all-around player, .277-22-83 in 2004.

Derek Lee, CHC (497, 3.21) - I keep hearing from astute Fantasy experts that Chicago Cubs new 1B Derek Lee will thrive in the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field. Do not buy into the hype, Lee has always underachieved and last year was mediocre as usual. The Cubs are far less aggressive on the base paths and with his tendency to strike out in a right-handed dominant lineup expect a typical second-tier Lee season of .265-24-87 and just seven stolen bases.

Erubiel Durazo, OAK (495, 3.30) - Durazo didn't put together the fantasy season Fantasy owners expected a year ago despite playing in a career-high 154 games with the Athletics. He enters this season with far less expectations and expecting .271-26-89 with close to 100 walks is safely within reach and a nice bargain as a second-tier first baseman.

Nick Johnson, MON (488, 3.37) - Now that Johnson has been shipped north of the border, to Puerto Rico, Portland, or some place he will definitely start at first base and will blossom this season into star. Don't forget that he was leading the American League in walks and hitting .318-5-18 before suffering a wrist injury that cost 60 games last season. This budding talent, has enormous potential and the Yankees will miss his .288-18-77 to go along with 85 runs and 89 walks this season. Josh Phelps, TOR (475, 3.28) - Future top DH in the ML, clubbed 20 HRs in just 396 at bats last season. In 2004, expect Phelps to approach 30 home runs with a modest average and more than 500 at bats.

David Ortiz, BOS (468, 3.20) - Was able to stay healthy for the first time in his career in helping the Red Sox advance to the ALCS. In 2004, Ortiz will be highly overvalued and will disappoint many Fantasy experts. Don't buy into the press, Ortiz struggles mightily against lefties, injury/attitude-marred past, and is not 27 this year. Expect a significant drop off his banner '03 campaign to the tune of .272-23-84.

Raul Ibanez, SEA (482, 3.21) - Safeco Field should cut into the newest Mariner's numbers, but Ibanez will have plenty of opportunities hitting behind Boone and in front of Edgar.

Paul Konerko, CWS (476, 3.17) - Disregard the 2003 first half slumber and take Konerko's second half numbers of last season and expect a marked improvement of .282-28-83 for this sleeper in 2004.

Mark Teixeira, TEX (459, 3.17) - Teixeira will be a great player for years to come, but his lack of plate discipline (120 Ks to 44 B, .331 OBP), lack of lineup protection, and second time around the Junior Circuit will lead to growing pains for owners who pull the trigger to early on him. Without a doubt a keeper, however this season will not warrant anything more than a backup role for mixed and AL-only leagues. Expect an average in the mid .250's with 20-25 homeruns and 80-85 RBIs.

Kevin Millar, BOS (459, 3.17) - Millar is a tough, gritty competitor who qualifies at 1B and in the OF. Look for more of the same consistency in 2004 for this gamer.

Edgar Martinez, SEA (458, 3.52) - If only Mr. Mariner Edgar Martinez could stay healthy for an entire season. Age, injuries, and the thought of running out any ground ball are enough to scare any owner of the best DH in MLB history. At best, expect Edgar to play in 130 games and hit .300-21-87. If you can live with a couple of stints on the DL than he is yours at a bargain price. Others:

Shea Hillenbrand, ARZ (465, 3.20) - Everyday third baseman that thrived in the Desert following the trade from Boston last season.

Phil Nevin, SD (405, 3.24) - More injury concerns for Nevin. If healthy, a top 10 choice at 1B but that is a BIG if.

Carlos Pena, DET (444, 3.06) - Young prospect who showed very little progress last season, however, in 2004, with a veteran lineup around him expect his homerun and average totals to rise into the Sleeper Radar.

Sean Casey, CIN (452, 3.11) - Pencil him with at least one stint on the Disabled List, .300 average, 15 homeruns, and 75-80 RBIs in 2004.

John Olerud, SEA (465, 3.10) - In 2003, the quiet Olerud quietly has his worse season as a big leaguer and it is hard to imagine an average higher than .285 and a homerun total more than 15 in '04. Look elsewhere.

Jeff Conine, FLA (441, 3.04) - Mr. Consistent adds versatility to any roster and is basically an older Kevin Millar that will give your some power to go along with an average in the .280's.

Doug Mientkiewicz, MIN (438, 3.02) - One of the finest fielding first baseman in the game that will give you decent average with 35-40 doubles, and no power year in and year out.

Brad Fullmer, TEX (406, 3.12) - Fullmer is an interesting sleeper for astute Fantasy owners this season. In '03, he was quietly having his best season until a severe knee injury abruptly ended his season. If he returns to full strength, look for his average to hover in the .280's with 20 homeruns and 80-85 RBIs.

Lyle Overbay, MIL (412, 2.94) - Overbay has hit at every level and has terrific plate discipline to make him a quality Major Leaguer. The move to the Brewers should allow him to blossom into one of the League's best high-average hitters, although he will never hit more than 20 homeruns in a season. Sleeper candidate.

Hee Seop Choi, FLA (402, 2.87) - May eventually develop into a decent power hitter but moving to spacious Pro Player will not help and an average over .250 is a lot to ask for.

Darin Erstad, ANA (394, 2.91) - Modern-day Lenny Dykstra, that just does not play enough to warrant even a waiver wire pick-up. With better health, a season of .280-9-50 with just 15-20 SB is very realistic.

Travis Hafner, CLE (391, 2.79) - Hit .273-10-26 following the break last season. Hafner may not be the next Joe Carter or Jim Thome but he has enough talent to develop into a .270-.275, 20-25 HR, and 70-75 RBI hitter this season.

Scott Spiezio, SEA (422, 2.72) - Everyday Mariners third baseman that will drive in some clutch runs but holds very little Fantasy value at the first base position.

Adam LaRoche, ATL - The Braves are confident that LaRoche is ready to take over the first base position this season. Look for him to struggle early, and improve as the season progresses, hitting in the .280's with some 15-20 HR power.

Tino Martinez, TAM (361, 2.67) - Will bring a desperately needed winning attitude to the young Devil Rays' clubhouse, however his decline in recent years and age translates into very little Fantasy value.

Sleepers: Worth Your Time & Dime

Aubrey Huff, TB - Qualifies at 1B, 3B, and OF. Becoming household name, but don't wait to the middle rounds for Huff or you will be sorry.

Adam Dunn, CIN - In Fantasy Points leagues, don't underestimate the value of a youngster with 30-40 HR power, 15-20 SB, and 100+ walks. Fantasy owners, take note.

Jay Gibbons, BAL - Quietly, had a sensational year for the dreaded O's in '03. Better lineup and young, Gibbons is primed for an even better year at a bargain price.

Josh Phelps, TOR - The Blue Jays are committed to investing and building around Phelps, expect mighty returns in 2004 for their full-time DH.

Carlos Pena, DET - Don't give up on Pena just yet, improved supporting veteran cast will build his Fantasy status.

Paul Konerko, CWS - Fell off the face of the Fantasy Baseball world last season. The 2004 American League Comeback Player of the Year and return back to the Fantasy prominence this season.

Travis Overbay, MIL - Will not be the next Richie Sexson, but Overbay will make a name for himself in Brew Town with an average approaching .300.

Travis Hafner, CLE - Impressive second half, translates into legitimate sleeper pick for the once prized Rangers' prospect.

Busts: Let me to you about the Dangers

Derek Lee, CHC - Don't buy into the hype, Lee is simply a mediocre first baseman that will not swipe as many bases for the less aggressive Cubbies.

David Ortiz, BOS - Arguably the 2003 AL MVP will fall back to his less than spectacular, underachieving self in '04.

Mark Teixeira, TEX - Sophomore slump awaiting the future Rangers' star. Be careful, not to overvalue him this season.

Phil Nevin, SD - Nevin is one of the best when healthy, and with his recent injury -- it is time to put him in the same class with Ken Griffey, a bust.

Mr. Consistency: Numbers to Live by in 2004

Todd Helton, COL Albert Pujols, STL Carlos Delgado, TOR Jeff Bagwell, HOU Rafael Palmeiro, BAL Kevin Millar, BOS Edgar Martinez, SEA Sean Casey, CIN Jeff Conine, FLA Doug Mientkiewicz, MIN