Oil drilling in wildlife park gets nearer

With public attention diverted by Iraq, George Bush is poised to push one of his most cherished and controversial measures past strong opposition on Capitol Hill and into law.

The Senate is expected to vote this week on the White House plan to start drilling for oil in the Arctic national wildlife refuge in Alaska. The vote will be tight, but the balance appears to have shifted to the pro-drilling side.

The president has regained the initiative thanks to a move by Republican leaders to turn the Senate's complex regulations in their favour. Normally, a decision of this magnitude can be filibustered by opponents, a process that can only be stopped by a vote of 60 of the Senate's 100 members.

However, the Arctic issue has now been moved into the annual budget resolution, which is not subject to filibuster, so the White House can get it through with a simple majority, or even a 50-50 tie, enabling the vice-president, Dick Cheney, to use his casting vote.

Victory would not mean an immediate start to drilling, and opponents may be able to filibuster later in the legislative process. But the vote would be a victory for Mr Bush, and perhaps a decisive one if concerns over petrol supplies and prices continue to overshadow environmental alarms in the public mind.

The Republicans regained control of the Senate in elections last November, with a 51-49 advantage, but some of the party's senators have consistently opposed Mr Bush on this issue. They are counterbalanced by rightwing Democrats who support him.

Pressure is being applied to wavering senators on both sides. The White House thinks it might have the 50 votes it requires if it can win over Norm Coleman, the newly elected Republican senator from Minnesota. Senator Coleman said during the campaign that he was against the plan, but is now being promised funds for "biodiesel" alternative energy projects that would be a boon for Minnesota's farmers. Last week he insisted he was sticking to his position, but added: "You never say never."

Arguments in favour of the plan are especially emotive at the moment. The question, according to the Alaska senator Lisa Murkowski, is simple: "Do you support limited expansion of oil drilling in Alaska or would you prefer we buy more oil from Saddam Hussein?"