NCAA: Picking my way through a Tournament (mine)field

I try to cover every angle. I try to consider if momentum or rest is a bigger factor. I account for the coaches. I weigh my biases against hard statistics.

I always fall flat on my face, while Mr. Blindfold Dart Thrower over here makes off like a bandit.

Seton Hall over Temple. Miami over Ohio State. North Carolina over Stanford. Wisconsin over Arizona. Only one #2 seed escaping the second round in each of the past two years.

These and other incredible developments make the NCAA Tournament the incredibly, wondefully baffling and fresh event that it always is, without exception. If the Big Dance is low on buzzer beaters, it's high on upsets. If the quality of play isn't as great, the storylines still compel people to watch. There's always something to latch onto when the NCAA Tournament comes around. And if nothing else, there's always Jim Nantz and Billy Packer delving into college hoop history during filler time, or Verne Lundquist and the "Guvnah," Bill Raftery, engaging in some of the smoothest and most enjoyable broadcasting repartee ever.

But for that office pool, that once-snow white bracket sheet, the NCAA Tournament is pure hell.

I guess I'll have to throw myself in the fire, then--like all journalistically-minded nerds who try to break it down, only to discover just how futile their efforts are. Brackets and self-esteem are the only things that get broken down when March Madness is at full throttle.

So, without further ado, here are my resoundingly incorrect selections for the NCAA Tournament, supported by logic and not dart-throwing. If I don't mention given matchups between certain teams or seeds, it means I like the chalk (the higher seeds). As mentioned on Tuesday, my one first-round upset is BYU over Cincinnati.

The 8-9 games

Coin flip city, baby. Here are some tidbits to help you pick the opposite of what I have rationally discerned as the team who should win.

Cal over Fresno State. Cal coach Ben Braun got Eastern Michigan to the Sweet 16 in 1991 as a 12 seed. He's an outstanding tourney coach, and he guided Cal to the Sweet 16 in 1997.

Tennessee over UNC-Charlotte. The Vols have big-time talent. They should show it, now that they're in the Dance.

St. Joe's over Georgia Tech. The Hawks have better shooters and are underseeded anyway.

Missouri over Georgia. Kareem Rush's return to Mizzou is a difference maker here.

The 7-10 games

Mortal locks: Arkansas and Providence. The pressure defense of these teams will destroy Georgetown and Penn State (and their shooting percentages).

Butler over Wake: Two teams headed in opposite directions.

Creighton over Iowa: Creighton's fresh; Iowa has to be a bit drained from their Big Ten run.

The 6-11 games

Oklahoma State over USC: a coach's game. I trust Eddie Sutton, not Henry Bibby.

Xavier over Notre Dame: The Irish, and Troy Murphy in particular, look really flat and sluggish. Xavier was arguably the last at-large team to get in, based on their seeding. This often inspires a team in round one.

Wisconsin over Georgia State: I'm betting GSU won't display the level of patience on offense they'll need to win the game.

Temple over Texas: another coach's game. John Chaney trumps Rick Barnes.

Selected second-rounders

Iowa State over Arkansas: Jamaal Tinsley will need to be at his best here, in a game that offers a great chance for a 2 seed to be knocked off.

Illinois over Tennessee: if the good Volunteer team shows up--and not its evil, mercurial twin--this is a regional final-level game in the second round. Take Illinois, but with reservations.

Virginia over Oklahoma. This game will be so physical, bodies will be carted off left and right. For the 6,284th time, I like Pete Gillen in the Tournament. Advantage Hoos.

Regional Semifinals

Kentucky over Boston College: Tubby Smith and the Wildcats look like the 1998 and '99 teams from Lexington. They'll get to the Elite Eight over a BC team that lacks experience in the NCAAs, much less the prime-time glare of the Sweet 16.

Florida over North Carolina: The Gators were superior to the Heels last year, and with the Tar Heels struggling, things shouldn't change. Florida will miss Brent Wright, but if everyone else is fresh and focused, the Gators have enough depth and scoring punch to handle Carolina.

Kansas over Illinois: Roy Williams' team didn't win either the regular season or tournament titles in the Big XII, but remember that Williams has done his best work in the Dance when Kansas has not been a #1 seed. If Kansas can escape Syracuse in the second round, the dynamics of the Midwest Region could shift in the Jayhawks' favor. Illinois is the most vulnerable 1 seed in the field (because Michigan State got a great draw through the first three rounds).

Iowa State over Maryland. Remember my Gary Williams column from a few weeks ago? I appreciate much of what Gary Williams does, and I will treat him with dignity forevermore. But until he gets past the Sweet 16, I have to pick his opponent, even if Maryland is playing extremely well right now. The Tournament shows us how quickly things can change.

Regional finals

Duke over Kentucky. Jason Williams is making great progress. The Wildcats better hope he re-injures himself.

Florida over Michigan State: I said at the beginning of the year that the Spartans would not make the Final Four. While MSU has a great draw, the regional final will offer a stiff test, and Florida's season-long maturation process makes the Gators a tougher team than Tom Izzo's crew at this point of the season. Being in the Georgia Dome, a frequent SEC Tournament venue (including last year), will help Florida.

Arizona over Kansas. Want one more reason why Arizona is the people's choice to win the Midwest (judging from what I've seen and heard)? Notice that the Midwest Regionals are in San Antonio, the Southwest. That will be an enormously friendly--and loud--venue for Arizona.

Stanford over Iowa State. If Stanford doesn't win this truly red carpet of a bracket, it will be a long off-season for Casey Jacobsen and his mates.

National Semifinals

Arizona over Florida: Arizona has better talent 1-5. If it's a bench game, UF could have a chance, but the Wildcats have horses.

Duke over Stanford: I love both teams, and it's a shame that this is a semi and not the title game. Ultimately, Jason Williams is the difference maker here. He will destory Mike McDonald at the point. If Carlos Boozer can be reasonably effective and simply neutralize the Collins twins, Duke will win this game.

National Championship

Duke over Arizona: In a spotlight game like this, I have to like Shane Battier's leadership and mental toughness as a key catalyst (and intangible edge) for Duke. Should be every bit as good as Duke-Stanford.

Good luck with your brackets. I'm sure that after Maryland beats Oklahoma in the title game, I'll consider blindfolded dart throwing when the 2002 Tournament comes around.