Middle East envoy returns with eyes on broader picture

America's previous foray into Middle East peacemaking resulted in one of the bloodiest weeks of the Palestinian uprising, and the auguries for today's visit by Washington's envoy are even more dismal - 163 Palestinians and 59 Israelis killed in the last 13 days.

But such calculations are only part of the reasoning behind the mission by General Anthony Zinni, and the reactivation of the Bush administration's on-off approach towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Although Palestinian officials yesterday said openly that Gen Zinni's efforts to impose a truce were bound to fail, Washington is operating on a larger canvas - the need to assuage Arab states as it seeks to rebuild its coalition, this time for a possible strike on Iraq.

The US vice president, Dick Cheney, was in Egypt yesterday seeking the support of President Hosni Mubarak for the second phase of America's "war on terror". But, as on his first stop in his 11-nation tour - Jordan - his trip was dogged by Arab concern about Israel's unrelenting military offensive against the Palestinians.

Joseph Alpher, an Israeli strategic analyst, said: "I am inclined to see Zinni's visit more as a tactical move, the timing of which was determined by lots of important factors, but not the need to make peace in the Middle East."

America's efforts to win over Arab opinion have gained greater urgency with the convening of an Arab League summit in Beirut later this month.

It is uncertain if Israel will lift its siege on Ramallah so that Yasser Arafat can attend - an eventuality that could rebound on America's coalition-building efforts.

However, such diplomatic considerations are entirely removed from the mayhem in the West Bank and Gaza. In his besieged Ramallah headquarters, Yasser Arafat dismissed outright the chances that Gen Zinni could halt the violence. Yesterday, his officials were equally gloomy, saying there was no prospect of a ceasefire until Israel pulled back its tanks from the Palestinian capital.

The Palestinian negotiator, Saeb Erakat, told the Voice of Palestine radio station: "If he is coming to talk about a truce [without an Israeli withdrawal], then there is nothing to talk about."

There was little prospect of withdrawal yesterday, as Israel's defence minister, Binyamin Ben Eliezer, said the assault on Ramallah would go on after Gen Zinni's arrival - in direct contradiction of earlier statements by his deputy that the tanks would pull out before this morning.

Despite that standoff, Gen Zinni is better prepared for this mission than on his last disastrous visit - whose fate was sealed when Israel assassinated a senior Hamas commander. Gen Zinni had barely got his feet on the ground when there was a horrific Palestinian retaliation - 25 Israelis killed in a weekend of suicide bombings in Jerusalem and Haifa.

Diplomats say the former marine corps commander will have slightly more clout this time. He arrives as a direct emissary of President Bush, not of the secretary of state, Colin Powell. He will thus be able to bring more pressure to bear on the two sides to agree a truce.

Such thinking has fed speculation that Gen Zinni delayed his arrival at Israel's request, letting Ariel Sharon pursue his strategy of pounding the Palestinians into submission.

But so long as Gen Zinni pursues his mission with a narrow focus on security - ignoring the political elements of a deal that the Palestinians have demanded - it is doubtful that his change of status can have any effect on the ground.