Horse Racing: Cheltenham Betting Tips

What to do

Pay close attention to previous course form. It is worth its weight in gold at Cheltenham where the undulations, stiff fences and punishing uphill finish provide a unique test. Festival form is strong in the championship races. The last seven winners of tomorrow’s Champion Hurdle had won at the Festival before, while seven of the last eight winners of Friday’s Gold Cup had been placed at the Festival before.

Check the Tote odds before having a bet. Normally, the Tote only publishes its payout price for the winner of each race, but the Guardian has obtained exclusive access to Tote returns for all runners at last year’s Festival, and they show compelling reasons for getting involved in pool betting. The average Tote return was a shade over 56-1, compared to an average Starting Price of 40-1. The winners averaged just shy of 14-1 on the Tote against just over 11-1 SP, and the Tote’s returns for all other placed runners also averaged better than SP. At shorter odds, though, you might be better advised to take a price with a bookmaker, since the average Tote payout was shorter than SP on all runners returned 5-1 or under.

Take note of Martin Pipe’s "second-string" runners in handicaps. The leading trainer at the Festival with 34 winners, Pipe has won five handicaps over the last five Festivals with the likes of Maximize at 40-1, Blowing Wind (25-1) and Ilnamar, another 25-1 shot who paid over 90-1 on the Tote.

Note runners from the Willie Mullins stable in the Class 1 races, of which there are 10 this week - all the Irish trainer’s nine Festival winners have come at the highest level. His favorite race is Wednesday’s National Hunt Flat race, the Weatherbys Champion Bumper, which Mullins has won a staggering five times.

Look for value, but also respect strong favorites. Over the last five Festivals, backing favorites that started shorter than 2-1 has yielded a 13% profit. There have been 23 such horses in that time, of which only three didn’t make the frame.

Consider backing outsiders in the Gold Cup each-way or to place, particularly in an open year such as this. Stamina counts for plenty here, and there has only been one Gold Cup since 1986 which did not feature a placed horse at 20-1 or bigger. Runners-up in six of the last eight Gold Cups have figured between 66-1 and 25-1.

Take heart that Friday’s "getting out stakes", the County Hurdle, has been reasonably kind to backers given the competitive nature of this big-field handicap. Three of the last seven winners have started favorite and three others were well backed 8-1 and 10-1 (twice) shots.

What not to do

Steer clear of five-year-olds in tomorrow’s Champion Hurdle. Most horses are just too weak at that age to do themselves justice in such a tough race. The last winning five-year-old was the exceptional See You Then, in 1985, and 67 have been beaten since, which illustrates the task facing Admiral, Faasel and Penzance in tomorrow’s big race.

Be wary of Sky’s The Limit, one of the favorites for Wednesday’s Coral Cup. He is a five-year-old, and no horse of that age has won this competitive handicap from 55 runners.

Martin Pipe has provided some spectacular results in handicaps at the Festival, but not in tomorrow’s William Hill Trophy, in which Korelo is a leading fancy for the meeting’s top trainer. No winners from 26 runners is Pipe’s dismal record here. The champion trainer has also drawn a blank in Friday’s two-mile Grand Annual Handicap Chase.

Don’t be in a hurry to back top weights in the handicap chases this week. Of the last 26 such races, 23 have been won by horses carrying no more than 11st.

Don’t be swayed by sentiment when assessing the prospects for 12-year-old Moscow Flyer or 11-year-old Baracouda this week. The former’s Queen Mother Champion Chase win last year was the exception to the rule - he was only the fifth horse in double figures to win in the last 66 Festival races.

While stopping short of saying don’t back Kauto Star, favorite for Wednesday’s Queen Mother Champion Chase, he is a six-year-old and punters should take note that no horse this young has won since Inkslinger in 1973.

Don’t be put off by Irish trainers’ claims in recent weeks that their horses are at a disadvantage in handicaps when sent to race in Britain. Xenophon, Spirit Leader, Oulart, Youlneverwalkalone, Fota Island and Fadoudal Do Cochet have all been well-backed handicap winners for Ireland at the Festival in recent years, and they struck with Victram in the Imperial Cup at Sandown on Saturday.

Don’t be tempted to chase early losses if things go badly on the opening day tomorrow. There are still 18 races to go.