Spring Training preview -- AL West (Pt. 3)

By Peter Friberg Sports Central Columnist

With Spring Training now in session and the Boys of Summer awaking from their winter hibernation, it's time to start thinking baseball. In part three of our series, we'll take a look at the American League Western Division.

Anaheim traded Mo Vaughn (.272/.365/.498 - batting average/on-base percentage/slugging - in 2000) to Mets this offseason for RHP Kevin Appier (3.57 ERA in 206.2 innings). Vaughn, who missed 2001 with a torn bicep, could have been this team's offensive savior. However, he cost too much ($13+ mil) and was a malcontent playing on the left coast.

The Angels also signed Aaron Sele (3.60 in 215.0) from Seattle. And while it escaped a lot of people's attention, the Angels already had a very solid pitching staff last year. This year, after adding Sele and Appier to Scot Schoeneweis (5.08 in 205.1), Jarrod Washburn (3.77 in 193.1), and Ramon Ortiz (4.36 in 208.2), the Angels look to have one of the top five to seven starting rotations in baseball. Unfortunately for the Halos, two of those that are better reside in the same division.

The Angels' Achilles heel is their offense, or lack thereof. A look at the starting lineup - the player's OPS (on-base + slugging) - shows just weak this team's offense is:

SS Eckstein .712 CF Erstad .691 3B Glaus .898 DH Fullmer .809 LF Anderson .792 RF Salmon .748 DH Wooten .798 C B. Molina .660 2B Kennedy .690

And while Angel fans will likely and correctly point out that this team had a lot of bad luck in 2001, only a major flop by Seattle, Oakland, and Texas could get this team into the playoffs. Now Angel fans, don't get upset with me. Remember what I said in my preview. This team is still probably seventh best team in baseball.

But before this team reached the playoffs, they will have to address a lineup that has only one big threat, Troy Glaus (.250/.367/.531).

Oakland probably has the best pitching rotation in baseball. With Tim Hudson (3.37 in 235.0), Mark Mulder (3.45 in 229.1), and Barry Zito (3.49 in 214.1) anchoring the front of the rotation, it looks like MLB finally has an answer to the Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz troika the Braves have had for the last eight years. Not to mention that Corey Lidle (3.59 in 188.0) is solid, and they have Billy Koch (4.80 in 69.1) as their closer.

While Koch's ERA from last year is not impressive, his 36 saves are adequate, and he had one fewer blown save (9 to 9) than Oakland's 2001, Jason Isringhausen.

"Sure," you say, "but they lost Jason Giambi (.342/.477/.660). How can they possibly replace that kind of production?"

Short answer: they can't. However, with rookie 1B Carlos Pena (.288 with 23 HR in 431 AAA at-bats) will take over at first and is expected to become a star. He should be in the running for the AL Rookie of the Year award. While Carlos won't make anyone forget about Jason, he will lessen the pain of Jason's departure.

Oakland GM Billy Beane also picked up LF/DH David Justice (.241/.333/.430) who played significantly below his career levels and was injured for much of last year.

Eric Byrnes (.237/.326/.500 in 38 AB) led the Dominican League (winter ball) in HR with 11, and was second in batting average at .345. Byrnes is giving Manager Art Howe and Beane a nice problem; too many quality hitters and not enough positions for them. Anyone watching Game 5 of the ALDS between Oakland and New York surely remembers seeing RF Jermaine Dye (.282/.346/.467) foul a pitch off his leg, breaking it. Jermaine isn't ready yet, but when he is, Beane and Howe will have to find at-bats for 1B Pena, LF/DH Justice, RF Dye, OF Byrnes, LF/CF Terrance Long (.282/.335/.412), LF/1B/DH Jeremy Giambi (.283/.391/.450), C/1B/DH Scott Hatteberg (.245/.332/.345), and LF/1B/DH Adam Piatt (.211/.300/.284) - who is recovering from a horrible illness.

In case you weren't counting, that's five positions, and eight players. And except for Hatteberg, each of them has a starter-quality bat. Once Dye is ready, RF is his, Long will start in CF, and Justice should get most of the LF playing-time. Pena will be the everyday starter at 1B and Jeremy Giambi will get the nod at DH. Byrnes will play RF until Dye is ready, and once Dye returns, Byrnes will be the fourth outfielder and late-inning defensive replacement. Piatt, who needs at-bats, will probably start the season in AAA.

From past experience, we can be fairly confident that Billy Beane will find this teams' need(s) and make a trade(s) to remedy that situation. The above stockpile will be the most likely source of trade-bait. And we can be fairly certain whatever move Beane makes, it will be the right move. And again, Beane and will leave the other GMs scratching their heads wondering how he did it.

Even though Seattle won 14 more games than Oakland last year, and even though Oakland's loss (Giambi) is greater than any Mariner defection, Oakland still has to be the favorite in this immensely loaded division. But that's why they play 'em. I'm glad I live on the West Coast, this is going to be fun!

Seattle isn't missing a single vital cog from last year's 116-win team. Yes, I know, 3B David Bell (.260/.303./.415) is now a San Francisco Giant ... As I said, Seattle isn't missing anything ... 3B import Jeff Cirillo (.312/.364/.473) will be a significant boost from Bell's offensive performance.

I don't want to rain on your parade, Mariner fans -- and I know, the bluest skies you ever seen are in Seattle -- but, so many things went right for the Mariners in 2001, that by the law of averages, this team won't be able to match last year's team. Furthermore, this is a pretty old team. Will they be good? Absolutely! Will they be better than A's? Well, my money is on the A's, but this has to be closest two teams in baseball (close second to the Braves and Mets - but that's next week's column).

Brett Boone (.331/.372/.578) had one of the best seasons for a second baseman in the history of the sport; putting up 37 HR and 141 RBI. While it is highly unlikely that he'll duplicate those numbers, it would be reasonable to expect a (.290/.330/.515) season with 30 HR and 110 RBI.

DH Edgar Martinez (.306/.423/.543) is 39. While Father Time will catch up with Edgar and erode his hitting skills, it would not be wise to predict that it will happen this year. I won't compare Edgar to Ted Williams (in terms of hitting skills), but when Ted's career was waning, he knew it was time to hang it up because he realized he couldn't turn on the fastball like he used to. He retired before the pitchers got wind of his demise. Likewise, expect Edgar to hang up his spikes before you or I realize that the magic has left his bat.

AL Rookie of the Year and AL MVP Ichiro Suzuki (.350/.381/.457) was very, very good in 2001. His .350 batting average was particularly impressive, especially for his first time facing MLB pitching. His 56 stolen bases paced the league. It's likely that he'll walk more in '02 and hit more HR in his second go-round. While the physique doesn't match, nor does the speed, Ichiro's game reminds me of Tony Gwynn; high average, low strikeout total, lower walk total, and just a few homeruns. Look for Ichiro to hit more jacks, and walk more as he adapts to the American version of the game.

As for the pitching, Seattle is developing one of the best young aces in the game. Freddy Garcia (3.05 in 238.2) is quickly becoming one of the more dominant pitchers in the AL.

After Freddy, the rotation fills out with Jamie Moyer (3.43 in 2092), Paul Abbot (4.25 in 163.0), John Halama (4.73 in 110.1), and Joel Pinero (2.03 in 75.1).

Young hurlers Gil Meche and Ryan Anderson are still mending from surgeries each had last year. Seattle had hoped to get them into big league action this year, but it is looking highly unlikely for either candidate. Both should join the AAA team once they are completely healthy (probably mid-to-late April). Meche, since he has already reached the big league team, could join Seattle around the All-Star break. I would be surprised if Anderson is called up this year, unless he's called up for September to get his feet wet.

Seattle is probably the third best team in the AL. Unfortunately for Mariner fans, Oakland is in their division. But pick either team, and you could make a great case for each. As I said before, this is going to be fun!

Texas had huge expectations for 2001 after the signing SS Alex Rodriguez to the largest contract in sports history. Alex (.318/.391/.622) didn't disappoint, but his teammates sure did (73 wins) ... especially the pitching staff.

Texas' accumulative 5.71 ERA was fully seven tenths of a run worse than any other team in the AL. And while last year's pitching staff did manage more strikeouts than five other AL teams, they also walked more and gave up more hits than any other staff. Not a recipe for success.

This article isn't intended to be long enough to talk about all the changes the Rangers made this offseason. However, neither would it do a fan any service if I didn't at least cover the highlights. The first change brought in former Indians GM John Hart to be their GM. Hart has never been shy about pulling the trigger. Hart didn't disappoint. I don't know the exact number, but Hart signed so many people to minor league contracts with non-roster invitations, Texas followers won't just need a roster list, they'll need a phone book.

Hart signed free agent OF slugger Juan Gonzalez (.325/.370/.590) to a two-year deal. Juan should bat fifth, forming a righty-lefty-righty pitcher's-invitation-for-trouble with A-Rod and 1B Rafael Palmeiro (.273/.381/.563) batting three and four, respectively.

The Rangers also have the best catcher in the game. While Ivan Rodriguez (.308/.347/.541) hasn't been healthy for the duration of either the 2000 or 2001 season, his presence is huge. When he's behind the dish, he shuts down the opposing team's running game (important when you have to face Ichiro and the Mariners 19 times). He also adds another potent bat to a very dangerous lineup.

As if offense was their problem, Hart also traded Darrin Oliver (6.02 in 154.0) to Boston for switch-hitting CF Carl Everett (.257/.323/.438). While Everett's 2001 numbers are less than impressive, he did play only 102 games last season, and wasn't healthy for a large portion of them. Texas may be a last chance for Mt. Everett. If Carl can prove his volcanic personality can remain dormant, he has the ability to be one of the most potent hitters in baseball. However, if he erupts again, he might just blow the top off any chance of remaining a major league ballplayer.

The Rangers also signed several pitchers this offseason. And since we're discussing volcanic personalities, let's start with John Rocker (4.32 in 66.2 with 23 saves between the Braves and Indians).

We all know that Rocker isn't exactly the guy you want to build a team's chemistry around. But what he is, is a talented left-handed pitcher who can bring his fastball at around 100 mph. He does struggle a bit with his command. But reportedly he's been pitching in winter leagues to sharpen up and develop another pitch. If Rocker is able to harness his combative nature (as well his control), he could challenge Marino Rivera as the best closer in the game. For now, Rocker will be Jeff Zimmerman's (2.40 in 71.1 with 28 saves) lefty setup guy. A good first step for Rocker would be to embrace that role and dominate at it like he did with the Braves when he set up for Kerry Lightenberg.

Hart also signed RHP Todd Van Poppel (2.52 in 75.0 with 90 K) to be Zimm's righty setup guy. To help matters, the Rangers also got Van Poppel's pitching coach from the Cubs last year, Rudy Jamarillo.

Jamarillo teaches his pitchers to really go after the hitter. It worked very well with most of the Cubs pitchers last year as they led the NL in strikeouts. He should be comparably successful with Rangers as well.

One more acquisition I want to discuss. The Rangers signed RHP Chan Ho Park (3.50 in 234.0). Park should be solid, but his 218/90 K/BB ratio leaves room for concern. To be successful in a hitters park such as The Ballpark, Park will need to cut down on his free passes. It's a virtual given that his ERA will climb a bit, but if he can be a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher, the Ranger's will be ecstatic.

So if you've been paying attention, I told you that Oakland should win the division, but that Seattle is about Oakland's equal. But it also seemed that I talked glowingly of all of Texas' acquisitions.

Texas could be the surprise team in the AL this year. With all the offense they acquired, they may finally make good on their 1,000 runs scored prediction (of course they made that prediction prior to the 2001 season). And with their much-improved bullpen, they will follow what has been the Cleveland mold; amazing hitting, decent starting pitching, and a deep bullpen to finish things off.

If either Seattle or Oakland struggles, it would not be a stretch for this team to finish second. But, a third place finish is more likely.

I'll say it again, this is going to be fun!

Article courtesy of Sports Central.