Mid-Majors get the shaft again
Gonzaga, the sixth ranked team in the country, is a sixth seed. Three deserving teams did not get in, while Charlotte did. I propose radical changes to the current format, but yet the changes do appear to work out. Read on for a great source of information on the NCAA Tournament.
OK, this article was supposed to be the final regular-season rankings of the NCAA Men's Basketball Mid-Major teams. Then a funny thing happened along the way. The mid-majors got screwed again!
Gonzaga, ranked sixth in the entire country get a sixth seed in their region. For those of you not familiar with seedings, there are four regions. So if you are sixth in the country, you should get a second seed. Even given the fact that Gonzaga is from a small conference would allow a third or fourth seed to be respectable. But a sixth seed is absolutely ludicrous!
It had been stated on a few websites and publications by experts that if Gonzaga got in the right bracket, they could make a trip to the Final Four. But, Lee Fowler and the Tournament Selection Committee made sure that wouldn't be easy.
If they make it to the Final Four, here is a listing of teams (with records) the Zags will have likely beaten to get there. Their first game is against 11th-seeded Mountain West regular season champion Wyoming (21-8). And the game is in Albuquerque, a high-altitude locale that favors Wyoming, whose home games are played above 7,000 feet.
Should they win against the Cowboys, they should face third-seeded Arizona (22-9), the Pac-10 conference tournament champions. So now, they make it to the Sweet 16 after two tough games. They get rewarded with Oklahoma (27-4), the Big 12 conference tourney champs who handed Kansas their only Big 12 loss in the championship game. They also knocked off Maryland early in the season, and the Terps just happen to be another top seed.
If they get by Oklahoma, they get to likely face top-seeded Cincinnati (30-3). The Bearcats happen to have the best record in the field, winning the regular season and tournament crowns in Conference USA.
And to add insult to injury, should they want to go all the way, they would likely get Duke in the first semifinal, followed by the winner of a likely Maryland-Kansas showdown. It seems to me that not only did the Tournament Selection Committee have no idea what they were doing, but they decided to try as hard as they could to stick it to the Mid-Majors.
Another couple of examples lie in the Horizon League and the Mid-American Conference. The teams in question are Butler, Bowling Green, and Ball State. Before we get into this, let me allow for a couple of disclaimers and rebuttals to possible arguments. I don't want to hear about strength of schedule or RPI. It is not the school's fault that the conference's RPI is so low. These teams are well above the rest of their respective conferences as far as talent, even the MAC teams.
Also, ask a major conference to go play on the road at a mid-major school and you will likely be greeted with a hearty laugh, a door slammed in your face, or a hang-up of the phone. Mid-majors shouldn't be forced to play the big boys on the road all the time, but the big boys won't do a home-and-home contract. So the mid-majors are forced to play other mid-majors.
Finally, when the mid-majors do play on the road against a major conference school, should that team have a down year, the game is discounted. Are the schools supposed to know who is going to have a bad record before the season starts? Cases in point are Hampton and Davidson, who won at North Carolina, and Penn, which won at Georgia Tech, Iowa State and Temple, all of which were down this year.
The NIT wasn't exempt either, leaving two teams with 20 wins out of its field of 40, that was expanded, supposedly to help the mid-majors. Yet, Vermont (21-8) and Virginia Commonwealth (21-11) were snubbed, while teams like Arizona State (14-14) and Vanderbilt (16-14) got in.
Plus the NIT was nice enough to pit Butler (25-5) and Bowling Green (24-8) in the First Round! Even with trying to cut travel, there is no way they should face each other right away with one team going home. Have Bowling Green play Detroit, Butler play Dayton, and move LSU at Iowa to an opening-round game, rather than a first round game.
So, now an even more radical solution to the problem is to expand the fields of both tournaments. The NCAA field could be expanded to 80 teams rather easily (in four regions of 20 teams), and the NIT jumps to 48 teams. That allows 128 teams out of 324 to play in the postseason, a percentage of 39.5 percent, still well lower than the NBA (55.1 percent) or the NHL (53.3 percent).
That would necessitate four opening-round games in each region, but that would be a workable scenario for travel.
I did try and follow all the rules the Tournament Committee uses as far as placing teams from the same conference as well as teams that have played each other. I have a feeling I missed one or two, however. Taking a look at this year's bracket, here is how the seeds would change under my plan, followed by NIT matchups:
NCAA East Region Opening Round 13 Central Connecticut (27-4) vs. 20 Siena (16-18), St. Louis, MO 14 Boston U. (22-9) vs. 19 Holy Cross (18-14), Chicago, IL 15 Ball State (20-11) vs. 18 Syracuse (20-11), Washington, DC 16 Rutgers (18-12) vs. 17 Yale (20-10), Washington, DC
First Round 1 Maryland (26-4) vs. 16-17 winner, Washington, DC 2 UConn (24-6) vs. 15-18 winner, Washington, DC 3 Georgia (21-9) vs. 14-19 winner, Chicago, IL 4 Kentucky (20-9) vs. 13-20 winner, St. Louis, MO
5 Marquette (26-6) vs. 12 Tulsa (26-6), St. Louis, MO 6 Xavier (25-5) vs. 11 Southern Illinois (26-7), Chicago, IL 7 Texas Tech (23-8) vs. 10 Michigan State (19-11), Washington, DC 8 Wisconsin (18-12) vs. 9 St. John's (20-11), Washington, DC
Midwest Region Opening Round 13 Valparaiso (25-7) vs. 20 Illinois-Chicago (20-13), Chicago, IL 14 Boston College (20-11) vs. 19 South Carolina (18-14), Dallas, TX 15 Memphis (22-9) vs. 18 BYU (17-11), Sacramento, CA 16 Dayton (20-10) vs. 17 Alcorn State (20-9), St. Louis, MO
First Round 1 Kansas (29-3) vs. 16-17 winner, St. Louis, MO 2 Oregon (23-8) vs. 15-18 winner, Sacramento, CA 3 Mississippi State (26-7) vs. 14-19 winner, Dallas, TX 4 Illinois (24-8) vs. 13-20 winner, Chicago, IL
5 Florida (22-8) vs. 12 Butler (25-5), Chicago, IL 6 Western Kentucky (28-3) vs. 11 Stanford (19-9), Dallas, TX 7 Texas (20-11) vs. 10 Wake Forest (20-12), Sacramento, CA 8 Pepperdine (22-8) vs. 9 Creighton (22-8), St. Louis, MO
South Region Opening Round 13 Bowling Green (24-8) vs. 20 Winthrop (19-11), Albuquerque, NM 14 UNC-Wilmington (22-9) vs. 19 Murray State (19-12), Pittsburgh, PA 15 Charlotte (18-11) vs. 18 Georgetown (19-11), Greenville, SC 16 Tennessee Tech (24-6) vs. 17 McNeese State (21-8), Greenville, SC
First Round 1 Duke (29-3) vs. 16-17 winner, Greenville, SC 2 Alabama (26-7) vs. 15-18 winner, Greenville, SC 3 Pittsburgh (27-5) vs. 14-19 winner, Pittsburgh, PA 4 USC (22-9) vs. 13-20 winner, Albuquerque, NM
5 Indiana (20-11) vs. 12 Hampton (26-6), Albuquerque, NM 6 California (22-8) vs. 11 Utah (21-8), Pittsburgh, PA 7 Oklahoma State (23-8) vs. 10 Penn (25-6), Greenville, SC 8 Notre Dame (21-10) vs. 9 Kent State (27-5), Greenville, SC
West Region Opening Round 13 Utah State (23-7) vs. 20 Montana (16-14), Albuquerque, NM 14 Davidson (21-9) vs. 19 Florida Atlantic (19-11), Sacramento, CA 15 Virginia (17-11) vs. 18 Minnesota (17-12), Dallas, TX 16 UC-Santa Barbara (20-10) vs. 17 San Diego State (21-11), St. Louis, MO
First Round 1 Cincinnati (30-3) vs. 16-17 winner, St. Louis, MO 2 Oklahoma (27-4) vs. 15-18 winner, Dallas, TX 3 Gonzaga (29-3) vs. 14-19 winner, Sacramento, CA 4 Arizona (22-9) vs. 13-20 winner, Albuquerque, NM
5 Ohio State (23-7) vs. 12 Missouri (21-11), Albuquerque, NM 6 Miami FL (24-7) vs. 11 Wyoming (21-8), Albuquerque, NM 7 N.C. State (22-10) vs. 10 Hawaii (27-5), Dallas, TX 8 UCLA (19-11) vs. 9 Mississippi (20-10), St. Louis, MO
Teams that benefit with seed/location rearrangements: Gonzaga goes from 6 to 3 in West and moves from Albuquerque to Sacramento. Western Kentucky goes from 9 to 6 in Midwest. Hampton goes from 15 in East to 12 in South. Arizona, despite dropping a seed line, now gets Ohio State second round rather than Gonzaga.
Teams that make field that did not in current format: East: Ball State, Rutgers, Yale, Syracuse. Midwest: Butler, BYU, Memphis, Dayton, South Carolina. South: Bowling Green, Tennessee Tech, Georgetown. West: Utah State, Virginia, Minnesota.
Now for the new, 48-team NIT opening and first round matchups:
Opening Round Nevada (17-13) at Montana State (19-9) Eastern Washington (17-13) at Pacific (20-10) Weber State (18-11) at New Mexico State (20-11) New Mexico (16-13) at UC-Irvine (21-10)
Marist (19-9) at Vermont (21-8) Princeton (16-11) at Wagner (19-9) Monmouth NJ (18-12) at Rider (17-11) Manhattan (20-8) at Villanova (17-12)
Ohio (17-11) at Northwestern (16-13) UNC-Greensboro (20-10) at Gardner Webb (19-8) Morehead State (18-11) at College of Charleston (21-9) Maryland-Baltimore County (20-9) at American (18-12)
Alabama A&M (19-10) at South Florida (19-12) Georgia State (20-10) at E. Tennessee St. (18-10) Houston (18-14) at Texas-San Antonio (19-10) Troy State (18-10) at Arkansas-Little Rock (18-11)
First Round Temple (15-14) at Fresno State (19-14) Arizona State (14-14) at UNLV (20-10) Nevada-Montana State winner vs. E. Wash.-Pacific winner Weber St.-NM St. winner vs. New Mexico-UCI winner
St. Joseph's (18-11) at George Mason (19-9) Brown (17-10) at St. Bonaventure (17-12) Marist-Vermont winner vs. Princeton-Wagner winner Monmouth-Rider winner vs. Manhattan-Villanova winner
Vanderbilt (16-14) at Louisville (18-12) Ohio-Northwestern winner vs. UNCG-Gardner Webb winner Virginia Commonwealth (21-11) at Richmond (19-13) Morehead State-C of C winner vs. UMBC-American winner
UL Lafayette (20-10) at Louisiana Tech (20-9) Alabama A&M-S. Fla. Winner vs. Georgia St.-ETSU winner LSU (18-14) at Texas-Pan American (20-10) Houston-UTSA winner vs. Troy State-UALR winner
Teams that get into postseason with this scenario: Nevada, Pacific, Weber State, New Mexico State, Marist, Vermont, Wagner, Monmouth NJ, Rider, Manhattan, Ohio, Northwestern, Gardner Webb, Morehead State, College of Charleston, UMBC, American, Alabama A&M, ETSU, UTSA, Troy St., UALR, Brown, VCU, Texas-Pan American.
There are too many advantages to this scenario, and the expansion would not dilute either tournament. The only difference would be that the NIT winner gets to claim "We're No. 81!" rather than "We're No. 66!"
The travel didn't work out to be as great as planned either for the NCAA, but neither did it in the field of 65. But, the NIT is nice and compact and would allow it to survive with mid-majors and lower-ranked major conference schools. Additionally, in the NIT, more of the regular season mid-major conference champions get in, as do some second and third place teams with appropriate records. The ironic thing is that expanding the NIT from 32 to 40 teams was supposed to do that this year, however, Vermont, Rider, Marist, and American may beg to differ.
And since you asked, I'll give you my Final Four picks based on the 2002 format, not the format I am proposing.
In the east, look for UConn. The Huskies have a much easier road to the Final Four than does Maryland, who will have to beat the winner of Wisconsin-St. John's, then likely Kentucky or Marquette just to get to the regional final.
In the midwest, mark my words Kansas will not even make the Sweet 16. The Jayhawks' NCAA collapses are bordering on legendary. Look for either Florida or Illinois to come out of the 4-5 game to make a run. Kansas will fall to the winner of an 8-9 game between Stanford and Western Kentucky. Ouch!
In the south, it is easy. Duke has their road paved in gold, and it will go as smoothly as a Mike Dunleavy jumpshot or a Jason Williams drive.
Finally, in the west, unfortunately Gonzaga's run of three straight Sweet 16 appearances appears to be over. Look for an Arizona win over Gonzaga in the second round in a game that should have been a regional final. Cincinnati is being doubted in this region, and tends to respond when they are doubted. So look for Steve Logan shooting bombs in Atlanta.
So, there you have it, Connecticut, Florida/Illinois, Duke, and Cincinnati. If you use my advice and happen to win your office pool, I won't ask for any of the proceeds, I promise.
Gonzaga, ranked sixth in the entire country get a sixth seed in their region. For those of you not familiar with seedings, there are four regions. So if you are sixth in the country, you should get a second seed. Even given the fact that Gonzaga is from a small conference would allow a third or fourth seed to be respectable. But a sixth seed is absolutely ludicrous!
It had been stated on a few websites and publications by experts that if Gonzaga got in the right bracket, they could make a trip to the Final Four. But, Lee Fowler and the Tournament Selection Committee made sure that wouldn't be easy.
If they make it to the Final Four, here is a listing of teams (with records) the Zags will have likely beaten to get there. Their first game is against 11th-seeded Mountain West regular season champion Wyoming (21-8). And the game is in Albuquerque, a high-altitude locale that favors Wyoming, whose home games are played above 7,000 feet.
Should they win against the Cowboys, they should face third-seeded Arizona (22-9), the Pac-10 conference tournament champions. So now, they make it to the Sweet 16 after two tough games. They get rewarded with Oklahoma (27-4), the Big 12 conference tourney champs who handed Kansas their only Big 12 loss in the championship game. They also knocked off Maryland early in the season, and the Terps just happen to be another top seed.
If they get by Oklahoma, they get to likely face top-seeded Cincinnati (30-3). The Bearcats happen to have the best record in the field, winning the regular season and tournament crowns in Conference USA.
And to add insult to injury, should they want to go all the way, they would likely get Duke in the first semifinal, followed by the winner of a likely Maryland-Kansas showdown. It seems to me that not only did the Tournament Selection Committee have no idea what they were doing, but they decided to try as hard as they could to stick it to the Mid-Majors.
Another couple of examples lie in the Horizon League and the Mid-American Conference. The teams in question are Butler, Bowling Green, and Ball State. Before we get into this, let me allow for a couple of disclaimers and rebuttals to possible arguments. I don't want to hear about strength of schedule or RPI. It is not the school's fault that the conference's RPI is so low. These teams are well above the rest of their respective conferences as far as talent, even the MAC teams.
Also, ask a major conference to go play on the road at a mid-major school and you will likely be greeted with a hearty laugh, a door slammed in your face, or a hang-up of the phone. Mid-majors shouldn't be forced to play the big boys on the road all the time, but the big boys won't do a home-and-home contract. So the mid-majors are forced to play other mid-majors.
Finally, when the mid-majors do play on the road against a major conference school, should that team have a down year, the game is discounted. Are the schools supposed to know who is going to have a bad record before the season starts? Cases in point are Hampton and Davidson, who won at North Carolina, and Penn, which won at Georgia Tech, Iowa State and Temple, all of which were down this year.
The NIT wasn't exempt either, leaving two teams with 20 wins out of its field of 40, that was expanded, supposedly to help the mid-majors. Yet, Vermont (21-8) and Virginia Commonwealth (21-11) were snubbed, while teams like Arizona State (14-14) and Vanderbilt (16-14) got in.
Plus the NIT was nice enough to pit Butler (25-5) and Bowling Green (24-8) in the First Round! Even with trying to cut travel, there is no way they should face each other right away with one team going home. Have Bowling Green play Detroit, Butler play Dayton, and move LSU at Iowa to an opening-round game, rather than a first round game.
So, now an even more radical solution to the problem is to expand the fields of both tournaments. The NCAA field could be expanded to 80 teams rather easily (in four regions of 20 teams), and the NIT jumps to 48 teams. That allows 128 teams out of 324 to play in the postseason, a percentage of 39.5 percent, still well lower than the NBA (55.1 percent) or the NHL (53.3 percent).
That would necessitate four opening-round games in each region, but that would be a workable scenario for travel.
I did try and follow all the rules the Tournament Committee uses as far as placing teams from the same conference as well as teams that have played each other. I have a feeling I missed one or two, however. Taking a look at this year's bracket, here is how the seeds would change under my plan, followed by NIT matchups:
NCAA East Region Opening Round 13 Central Connecticut (27-4) vs. 20 Siena (16-18), St. Louis, MO 14 Boston U. (22-9) vs. 19 Holy Cross (18-14), Chicago, IL 15 Ball State (20-11) vs. 18 Syracuse (20-11), Washington, DC 16 Rutgers (18-12) vs. 17 Yale (20-10), Washington, DC
First Round 1 Maryland (26-4) vs. 16-17 winner, Washington, DC 2 UConn (24-6) vs. 15-18 winner, Washington, DC 3 Georgia (21-9) vs. 14-19 winner, Chicago, IL 4 Kentucky (20-9) vs. 13-20 winner, St. Louis, MO
5 Marquette (26-6) vs. 12 Tulsa (26-6), St. Louis, MO 6 Xavier (25-5) vs. 11 Southern Illinois (26-7), Chicago, IL 7 Texas Tech (23-8) vs. 10 Michigan State (19-11), Washington, DC 8 Wisconsin (18-12) vs. 9 St. John's (20-11), Washington, DC
Midwest Region Opening Round 13 Valparaiso (25-7) vs. 20 Illinois-Chicago (20-13), Chicago, IL 14 Boston College (20-11) vs. 19 South Carolina (18-14), Dallas, TX 15 Memphis (22-9) vs. 18 BYU (17-11), Sacramento, CA 16 Dayton (20-10) vs. 17 Alcorn State (20-9), St. Louis, MO
First Round 1 Kansas (29-3) vs. 16-17 winner, St. Louis, MO 2 Oregon (23-8) vs. 15-18 winner, Sacramento, CA 3 Mississippi State (26-7) vs. 14-19 winner, Dallas, TX 4 Illinois (24-8) vs. 13-20 winner, Chicago, IL
5 Florida (22-8) vs. 12 Butler (25-5), Chicago, IL 6 Western Kentucky (28-3) vs. 11 Stanford (19-9), Dallas, TX 7 Texas (20-11) vs. 10 Wake Forest (20-12), Sacramento, CA 8 Pepperdine (22-8) vs. 9 Creighton (22-8), St. Louis, MO
South Region Opening Round 13 Bowling Green (24-8) vs. 20 Winthrop (19-11), Albuquerque, NM 14 UNC-Wilmington (22-9) vs. 19 Murray State (19-12), Pittsburgh, PA 15 Charlotte (18-11) vs. 18 Georgetown (19-11), Greenville, SC 16 Tennessee Tech (24-6) vs. 17 McNeese State (21-8), Greenville, SC
First Round 1 Duke (29-3) vs. 16-17 winner, Greenville, SC 2 Alabama (26-7) vs. 15-18 winner, Greenville, SC 3 Pittsburgh (27-5) vs. 14-19 winner, Pittsburgh, PA 4 USC (22-9) vs. 13-20 winner, Albuquerque, NM
5 Indiana (20-11) vs. 12 Hampton (26-6), Albuquerque, NM 6 California (22-8) vs. 11 Utah (21-8), Pittsburgh, PA 7 Oklahoma State (23-8) vs. 10 Penn (25-6), Greenville, SC 8 Notre Dame (21-10) vs. 9 Kent State (27-5), Greenville, SC
West Region Opening Round 13 Utah State (23-7) vs. 20 Montana (16-14), Albuquerque, NM 14 Davidson (21-9) vs. 19 Florida Atlantic (19-11), Sacramento, CA 15 Virginia (17-11) vs. 18 Minnesota (17-12), Dallas, TX 16 UC-Santa Barbara (20-10) vs. 17 San Diego State (21-11), St. Louis, MO
First Round 1 Cincinnati (30-3) vs. 16-17 winner, St. Louis, MO 2 Oklahoma (27-4) vs. 15-18 winner, Dallas, TX 3 Gonzaga (29-3) vs. 14-19 winner, Sacramento, CA 4 Arizona (22-9) vs. 13-20 winner, Albuquerque, NM
5 Ohio State (23-7) vs. 12 Missouri (21-11), Albuquerque, NM 6 Miami FL (24-7) vs. 11 Wyoming (21-8), Albuquerque, NM 7 N.C. State (22-10) vs. 10 Hawaii (27-5), Dallas, TX 8 UCLA (19-11) vs. 9 Mississippi (20-10), St. Louis, MO
Teams that benefit with seed/location rearrangements: Gonzaga goes from 6 to 3 in West and moves from Albuquerque to Sacramento. Western Kentucky goes from 9 to 6 in Midwest. Hampton goes from 15 in East to 12 in South. Arizona, despite dropping a seed line, now gets Ohio State second round rather than Gonzaga.
Teams that make field that did not in current format: East: Ball State, Rutgers, Yale, Syracuse. Midwest: Butler, BYU, Memphis, Dayton, South Carolina. South: Bowling Green, Tennessee Tech, Georgetown. West: Utah State, Virginia, Minnesota.
Now for the new, 48-team NIT opening and first round matchups:
Opening Round Nevada (17-13) at Montana State (19-9) Eastern Washington (17-13) at Pacific (20-10) Weber State (18-11) at New Mexico State (20-11) New Mexico (16-13) at UC-Irvine (21-10)
Marist (19-9) at Vermont (21-8) Princeton (16-11) at Wagner (19-9) Monmouth NJ (18-12) at Rider (17-11) Manhattan (20-8) at Villanova (17-12)
Ohio (17-11) at Northwestern (16-13) UNC-Greensboro (20-10) at Gardner Webb (19-8) Morehead State (18-11) at College of Charleston (21-9) Maryland-Baltimore County (20-9) at American (18-12)
Alabama A&M (19-10) at South Florida (19-12) Georgia State (20-10) at E. Tennessee St. (18-10) Houston (18-14) at Texas-San Antonio (19-10) Troy State (18-10) at Arkansas-Little Rock (18-11)
First Round Temple (15-14) at Fresno State (19-14) Arizona State (14-14) at UNLV (20-10) Nevada-Montana State winner vs. E. Wash.-Pacific winner Weber St.-NM St. winner vs. New Mexico-UCI winner
St. Joseph's (18-11) at George Mason (19-9) Brown (17-10) at St. Bonaventure (17-12) Marist-Vermont winner vs. Princeton-Wagner winner Monmouth-Rider winner vs. Manhattan-Villanova winner
Vanderbilt (16-14) at Louisville (18-12) Ohio-Northwestern winner vs. UNCG-Gardner Webb winner Virginia Commonwealth (21-11) at Richmond (19-13) Morehead State-C of C winner vs. UMBC-American winner
UL Lafayette (20-10) at Louisiana Tech (20-9) Alabama A&M-S. Fla. Winner vs. Georgia St.-ETSU winner LSU (18-14) at Texas-Pan American (20-10) Houston-UTSA winner vs. Troy State-UALR winner
Teams that get into postseason with this scenario: Nevada, Pacific, Weber State, New Mexico State, Marist, Vermont, Wagner, Monmouth NJ, Rider, Manhattan, Ohio, Northwestern, Gardner Webb, Morehead State, College of Charleston, UMBC, American, Alabama A&M, ETSU, UTSA, Troy St., UALR, Brown, VCU, Texas-Pan American.
There are too many advantages to this scenario, and the expansion would not dilute either tournament. The only difference would be that the NIT winner gets to claim "We're No. 81!" rather than "We're No. 66!"
The travel didn't work out to be as great as planned either for the NCAA, but neither did it in the field of 65. But, the NIT is nice and compact and would allow it to survive with mid-majors and lower-ranked major conference schools. Additionally, in the NIT, more of the regular season mid-major conference champions get in, as do some second and third place teams with appropriate records. The ironic thing is that expanding the NIT from 32 to 40 teams was supposed to do that this year, however, Vermont, Rider, Marist, and American may beg to differ.
And since you asked, I'll give you my Final Four picks based on the 2002 format, not the format I am proposing.
In the east, look for UConn. The Huskies have a much easier road to the Final Four than does Maryland, who will have to beat the winner of Wisconsin-St. John's, then likely Kentucky or Marquette just to get to the regional final.
In the midwest, mark my words Kansas will not even make the Sweet 16. The Jayhawks' NCAA collapses are bordering on legendary. Look for either Florida or Illinois to come out of the 4-5 game to make a run. Kansas will fall to the winner of an 8-9 game between Stanford and Western Kentucky. Ouch!
In the south, it is easy. Duke has their road paved in gold, and it will go as smoothly as a Mike Dunleavy jumpshot or a Jason Williams drive.
Finally, in the west, unfortunately Gonzaga's run of three straight Sweet 16 appearances appears to be over. Look for an Arizona win over Gonzaga in the second round in a game that should have been a regional final. Cincinnati is being doubted in this region, and tends to respond when they are doubted. So look for Steve Logan shooting bombs in Atlanta.
So, there you have it, Connecticut, Florida/Illinois, Duke, and Cincinnati. If you use my advice and happen to win your office pool, I won't ask for any of the proceeds, I promise.

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