Fantasy Sports: 2004 Draft Preview -- For Fantasy Pts. Leagues

It's the greatest season in sports -- spring-time, March Madness, office pools, golf and Spring Training.

Yes, baseball is around the corner and so are Fantasy Drafts.

With so many leagues and scoring systems to choose from, it is even difficult for the most prized Fantasy Owner to keep track of what to do as the clock ticks down on the draft board.

The 2004 Fantasy Draft Preview is your free ticket to the Fantasy Points title!

2004 Fantasy Draft Preview March 11-17: Catchers, First Baseman, Second Baseman March 18-24: Shortstops, Third Baseman, Outfielders March 24-30: Starting Pitchers, Closers, and Relievers March 31: Overall Rankings April 1st: Projected Team-by-Team Lineups, Starting Rotations, and Statistics April-October (each Tuesday, during the Season): Each week, my editorial focus will be devoted to providing the most in-depth Fantasy Baseball coverage around, finding out who's hot, who's not; rumors on the mill; and giving professional insight and comprehensive analysis you need for your team. Yes, I will keep a running track of the top 10 Fantasy Points leaders at each position as compared to my 2004 Fantasy MLB Preview Rankings.

Catchers

The 2003 season proved to be the year of the catcher highlighted by Javy Lopez who set a MLB record for single season homeruns (43) to go with his personal highs in RBI (109) and Batting Average (.327) in just 128 games behind the plate. As usual, Jorge Posada and Ivan Rodriguez put up their yearly ho-hum terrific numbers while first time All-Star Ramon Hernandez, Ben Molina, veteran Greg Myers, and Mike Lieberthal stunned Fantasy Baseball owners with solid play across the board.

Last season also illustrated how fragile the catching position is with injuries to future Hall of Fame backstop Mike Piazza and budding star Michael Barrett. And, yes there were several players that went from sleeper to fluke in just one season, including: Paul Lo Duca, Charles Johnson, Toby Hall, Jason Larue, and Ben Davis. Each hope to bounce back with a better season.

One warning, avoid drafting your backstop too early. Many owners paid the price in drafting Mike Piazza in the first three rounds last season and are still looking for his Debt to be paid in full. The catching position is demanding; one foul tip or home plate collision could be the end of the season and your then looking for a Brad Ausmus or a Dan Wilson off the waiver wire. Proceed with caution. Very few backstops except for Posada, "Pudge" Rodriguez, Jason Kendall, Jason Varitek, Paul Lo Duca, and Ramon Hernandez will give you more than 140 games played. Other than these guys there are no guarantees when it comes to durability.

The fantasy catcher will take on a younger look in 2004, especially in the AL Central and keeper leagues, with the likes of former Twins first overall pick Joe Mauer, 2-time minor league MVP Victor Martinez, and second-year backstop Miguel Olivo. There is no sure things at the catcher position, but each of these youngsters are legitimate and the impact may be Fantasy gold in 2004.

An average catcher should (based on 2004 Preview Rankings)...: 125G / 415AB / 48 R / 23 Doubles / 1 Triple / 13 Homeruns / 56 RBI / 2 SB / 37 Walks / .269 AVG

***Using Fantasy Points System*** "1 Point" for every Run, Single, RBI, and Walk; "2 Points" for every Double and Stolen Base; "3 Points" for every Triple; and "4 Points" for every Homerun;

Total points achieved for an average catcher in 2004 is 321 (or 2.56 pts/game)

Catcher Rankings

1. Jorge Posada, NYY (493 Total Fantasy Points, 3.40 Pts/Gm) - Best fantasy catcher hitting eighth top lineup and best positional player on the NYY not named A-Rod. Posada is in the prime of his career and you can safely pencil him for.285-25-90 fantasy line.

2. Ivan Rodriguez, DET (465, 3.21) - Comerica and the Tigers lineup won't help his numbers, but Pudge is a great bet to reach .300 with 40+ Doubles, five triples, 15 long balls, and 80+ RBI in 2004.

3. Mike Piazza, NYM (457, 3.51) - Shift to 1B would help his durability and numbers, but don't be surprised if he still reaches 30 homeruns with 90-100 RBI again this season as the Mets' everyday catcher. When healthy, Piazza is the best all-around hitting catcher in the game. Although, at 35, I would let another take the injury risk and go after a Jason Varitek, Jason Kendall, or Mike Lieberthal in later rounds.

4. Jason Kendall, PIT (442, 3.04) - Doesn't still as many bases since his '99 ankle injury but he is as tough as they come and will find his way on base, score some runs, hit for a high average (.324 in 2003), and get close to 600 AB's.

5. Jason Varitek, BOS (409, 2.92) - Best #9 Hitter in Baseball and by hitting in one of the most productive lineups, Varitek will post some quality numbers in '04. By the way, this is his contract year while in the prime of his career, .Look for his average to climb into the .280's with perhaps even better power numbers than last year's 25 HR and 85 RBI.

6. Javy Lopez, BAL (395, 2.93) - Weight was down in contract year and signed FAT long-term contract this off-season. Was last year a fluke? Moving to the AL should help numbers but I would air on the side of caution: expect .280 with 23 HR and 85 RBI's. Not bad, for a quality hitting catcher but not worth the buck he will command.

7. Mike Lieberthal, PHI (388, 2.98) - The Bad News, Lieberthal hit just 13 homeruns in 130 games last season. The Good News, he stayed healthy for a second consecutive season and hit .313 with 81 RBIs. Lieberthal will not hit for that kind of average again but he will safely be productive batting .285 with 15-20 homeruns and 75-85 RBIs in an excellent lineup. If you miss out on the top three (Posada, Rodriguez, and Piazza), you won't lose much here.

8. Matthew LeCroy, MIN (348, 2.78): Likely will begin the season as the Twins everyday DH and his real fantasy value is that he qualifies at the catching position in many leagues. In just 343 at bats, LeCroy hit .284 with 17 homeruns and 63 RBI. Those numbers make him a nice sleeper, however the Twins are stocked with ML talent that could split time with him limiting his Fantasy Value. The next Edgar Martinez should easily reach a .285 average with 20+ HR and 65+ RBI's this season.

9. Paul Lo Duca, LA (377, 2.60): Fantasy owners always seem to overvalue Lo Duca because of his "fluke" '01 season which he became a fantasy sensation with 25 homers and 90 RBIs. He did put up decent numbers at .273, 7 homers and 52 RBIs in 2003, and he has added more than 20 pounds in the off-season. Obviously, he is motivated to improve upon his numbers in 2004, but he is no more than strictly a gap hitter and history suggests that he will continue his slide with a mediocre .268, 8 homer, and 50 RBIs stat line. At this point in his career, Lo Duca is no more than a second tier catcher.

10. Benito Santiago, KC (337, 2.59): The 39-year-old backstop moves from PacBell National Park to hitter-friendly Kaufmann Stadium in Kansas City, and Santiago is a good bet to surpass his 2003 numbers. .274-14-64 are not bad numbers for a 18-year vet who by the way, is one of the finest conditioned athletes in the game. You will not find too many second level catchers better then Benito.

11. Toby Hall, TB (342, 2.53): 2004 is a make or break season for the former Devil Rays prospect. Hall has the credentials to be a top five catcher: very selective hitter that rarely strikes out, 20-25 homerun power, can hit for average (.298 in 2001), above average defense, and durability. He played in a career-best 130 games last season, hitting just .253 with 12 homers and 47 RBIs. This season, Hall should get close to 500 at-bats this season, and if so, look for his average to climb in the .270 range with 15-20 homers and 60 RBIs.

12. A.J. Pierzynski, SF (333, 2.46): At 27, Pierzynski is just entering the prime of his career and an astute fantasy owner would expect his numbers to rise. However, playing in spacious PacBell will not do his power numbers any favors and adjusting to National League pitching should take a toll on his average. A solid second catcher, that will have plenty of RBI opportunities with Bonds hitting in front of him. .285-6-60 with 30+ doubles and very few walks is a safe bet.

13. Jason LaRue, Cin (326, 2.60): LaRue struggled last season hovering in the .230's. You will never mistake LaRue for a Johnny Bench, however he could surprise this season in Coors East (Cincy). An improved .250 average with 15-20 homers and 55-65 RBIs is not out of the question. If your looking for power at the catcher position LaRue can be had at a low price.

14. Charles Johnson, Col (324, 2.81): Johnson's best Fantasy days are behind him, however he may make a decent second tier catcher in deep mixed or NL-only leagues simply because half his games are at Coors Field. He no longer can catch up with a good ML fastball, but he still is a dangerous mistake hitter as indicated by his .306 average and 12 homers in just 180 at-bats at home last season. Bench him on the road, start him at home, and live with a .245 average with 20-25 homers and 60-70 RBIs and, he's yours.

15. Michael Barrett, Cubs (311, 2.39): For several years, the Cubs have coveted Michael Barrett and this season he comes to The Friendly Confines with low expectations among Fantasy owners. Barrett's '03 season was a complete disaster with injuries and batting average that hovered near the Mendoza Line. Now that he is flying under the radar of most draft boards, Barrett should have a breakout season of .265, 15 homers, and 45-50 RBIs and is an excellent late-round sleeper.

Others

16. Jason Phillips, NYM (310, 2.38): Heads into 2004 as the Mets first baseman and could see significant time behind the plate if Piazza is permanently moved to 1B or injured. But, with the signing of Todd Zeile and Mike Piazza's motivation to silent his critics, Phillips figures to produce numbers in the neighborhood of around .280-10-55. Not bad for a second tier catcher, but nor good enough to warrant as your first catcher option.

17. Ramon Hernandez, SD (309, 2.20) : Solid backstop moving from the heavy air of Oakland to a new pitcher's park in San Diego. Look for his numbers to drop considerably . ..249-12-54. Stay away, Hernandez will not help in any fantasy category except in games played, although he will be a valuable asset to a young Padres pitching staff.

18. Craig Wilson, PIT (309, 2.78): "Just give him a chance" is this year's rally cry from Fantasy owners looking for a sleeper in Craig Wilson. If he gets more than 400 AB's he may be worthy of selection, however the signings of Orlando Merced, Daryl Ward, Raul Mondesi, and Randall Simon translates to the Fantasy dreaded word---"Platoon." Anything above .270-18-52 will be remarkable.

19. Victor Martinez, CLE (285, 2.38): Future star that has been mentioned in the same breathe as a young Mike Piazza that can actually play the catcher position. Martinez will hit for a high average in 2004 and should be at the top of your sleeper list.

20. Joe Mauer, MIN (279, 2.33): More career walks than strikeouts in the minors, and the former first overall pick will make an immediate impact in 2004. Should eventually grow into a 20-25 HR guy that hits for a high average, but don't look for anything but a high average in 2004.

21. Ben Davis, SEA (284, 2.33): It looks as though Davis will be the everyday catcher for the Mariners and with improved discipline. 270 with 15-20 homers, and 55-65 RBIs is not out of the question for 2004.

22. Miguel Olivo, CWS (277, 2.21): Hit just .237 with 6 homers and 27 RBI as a rookie, but did raise overall average with a .260 clip in the second-half. He will be a good ML player that can steal some bases, how good of Fantasy player remains to be seen.

23. Johnny Estrada, ATL (275, 2.20): Will be the Braves' everyday catcher following a fantastic Braves Triple A MVP 2003 season. Good potential, but tough "Javy Lopez" act to follow. Not worth a draft pick unless your playing in NL-only leagues.

24. Ben Molina, ANA (241, 1.97): On the surface, looks like a solid pick after career season. But, following wrist surgery and his inconsistent Fantasy history I would air on the side of a typical Molina season ..250-8-47 and 15 base on balls. Yuck!!!

25. Robby Hammock, AZ (238, 2.26): Warning! Pleasant surprise in 2003, will struggle in '04, not because he isn't talented but off-season knee surgery set back his progress and he may not be available until after the season begins.

26. Ramon Castro, FLA (237, 2.39): Could be a tremendous fantasy catcher as early as this season, but pending legal matters may set back his progress, forcing the Marlins to go with Mike Redmond.

27. Eli Marrero, ATL: Tremendous athlete who will play several positions this season. Not worth drafting but may be a valuable pick-up during the season. Keep you eye on him!

28. Chad Moeller, MIL (210, 2.59): Has improved with experience as a part-timer with the D-Backs in each of the past three seasons, and now a starter with the Brewers he will see a great deal more playing time which could translate into a fantasy steal for 2004.

29. Greg Myers, TOR (177, 1.96): Hopefully, this will be Myers last season so that young prospect Guillermo Quirez can get his chance. Look for a 2003 repeat in '03---that is, Myers poor second half. With talent biting at the bit, Myers does not make sense for any team.

30. Damian Miller, OAK (244, 1.95): Quality major league backstop in reality. One of the worst catchers in Fantasy. Look elsewhere.

31. Brian Schneider, MON: Excellent discipline which could translate into surprising numbers as the Expos everyday catcher. Late round only selection for deep mixed or NL-only leagues.

32. Einar Diaz, TEX: Not worth a pick in any League despite playing half of his games at the Ballpark in Arlington.

33. Mike Redmond, FLA: One of the ML's best backup catchers that could be the defending World Series Champions starter. Watch Ramon Castro's status closely before considering Redmond.

34. Koyie Hill, LA: Solid prospect that will start this season if Paul Lo Duca is permanently moved to first base or the outfield. Hit .300 in Triple A last season and has shown discipline for a young hitter.

35. Guillermo Quirez, TOR: Minor league prospect with power and outstanding athletic ability. Only Greg Myers and Kevin Cash stand in his way. Look for him to be a late-season sleeper and as early as mid-season.

36. Jeff Mathis, ANA: Another minor league top prospect waiting in the wings for the Ben Molina's fall.

Sleepers: Worth Your Time and Dime

Matt LeCroy, MIN: Everyday DH, that may hit cleanup in a good offensive lineup.

Toby Hall, TB: Hall will finally put together consistent Fantasy season!

Jason LaRue, CIN: A healthy lineup with Griffey, Kearns, Dunn, and Casey can only improve his numbers in great hitter's park.

Michael Barrett, Cubs: The Cubs will be happy that Pudge went to the loveable losers in Detroit, as Barrett is what the doctor ordered for the loveable winners in Wrigley.

Victor Martinez, CLE: Top catching prospect, two-time minor league batting champion and MVP, and Indians' everyday catcher -- expect .290 BA - 9 HR - 49 RBI.

Joe Mauer, MIN: Like Martinez, a top ML catching prospect that has hit well above .300 at every level. Projects as a future 20-25 homer catcher but has just nine in three minor league seasons -- expect .280 BA - 5 HR - 49 RBI

Ben Davis, SEA: Spent previous two seasons backing up Dan Wilson and the M's are giving Davis every chance to win the job in '04. He hit near .300 with glimpses of power the during the first half of last season, and projects a .268 BA - 14 HR - 54 RBI this season as the full-timer.

Busts: Let me to you about the Dangers Craig Wilson, Pit: Is expected by many experts to surprise as a full-time regular this season. With a log-jam at 1B and in the OF, Wilson projects to have a quite similar season to last year's campaign and will find it difficult to find consistent at-bats.

Robby Hammock, AZ: Still hampered by off-season knee surgery and will be overvalued because of his solid first season in the majors appearing at catcher, 3B, and in the OF. Versatile, good athlete who may need another season before making a significant Fantasy Impact.

Ramon Hernandez, SD: Former A's catcher who earned his first all-star appearance last season heads into 2004 with lofty expectations as the Padres everyday catcher. Ramon will not have the luxury of hitting in front of the leadoff hitter this year and will find very little protection batting 7th in front of a rookie shortstop and the pitcher. Look for his typical numbers to revere it's ugly self .

Ben Molina, ANA: Enjoyed his best season in 2003, but a broken hand wrist ended the mirage prematurely. Molina is healthy heading into '04, but if you look at his career averages and production --.it is all over the valley. After a career year, look for more of the same --.a career-worst year in his valley.

Greg Myers, TOR: At 37 and coming off a career year, this vet is at the end of the line. An average closer to his .252 2nd half mark would be a better indicator with what to expect in 2004. Stay away!

Mr. Consistency: Expect more of the same in 2004

Jorge Posada, NYY: Quite possibly the Yankees MVP last season, that provided stability to a injury-prone, underachieving line-up. His numbers will not change and may even get better despite moving to the 8th spot in the ML's best offensive lineup.

Ivan Rodriguez, DET: Every year experts and ML teams devalue "Pudge", quite simply he is a winner and will give you nice stats across the board to go along with his .300 average.

Jason Kendall, PIT: Jason Kendall is a gamer and a move to a contender would skyrocket his value. He will never hit 20 homeruns but you can count on him playing every game, hitting around .300, swiping 10 or more bases, and finding a way to get on.

Jason Varitek, BOS: Steady catcher in his prime that hits near the bottom of the potent Sox lineup and is a safe bet for another 20+ HR and 80+ RBI campaign in contract year.

Mike Lieberthal, PHI: Now that Lieberthal is healthy for the third consecutive year, Fantasy owners can expect a very productive season. Look for is power numbers to increase to go along with is .290-.300 average in the middle of the dangerous Phillies lineup.

A.J. Pierzynski, SF: Another catcher with very little power, but is a doubles, all field hitter that drives in clutch runs. Excellent combination, in spacious PacBell while batting in the vicinity of Barry the Great.

Article courtesy of Fantasy Information Central.