Upsets on the way

On the Saturday night before the NCAA basketball selections come out, I always come up with mock brackets. That way I get to see how close I was on Selection Sunday, the most anticipated time in the college hoops season, and, quite possibly, the entire sports season.

When Sunday rolls around, I'm filling out the brackets on notebook paper. That's how much of a college hoops junkie I am. The time between Sunday night and early Thursday afternoon is an eternity for me. I spend most of it looking at brackets while I should be studying for exams or writing term papers.

But, year after year, I never can find the right mix of teams to win a pool. Sure, in the ninth grade I picked the Jaspers of Manhattan College over Oklahoma, and Miami of Ohio over Arizona on the same day to go undefeated and finish third overall in the '95 tourney pool. In 1999, Michigan State came up short of putting 75 extra dollars in my pocket.

For one year, I would like to find some key upsets that would come through for me. Let's start in the East Region. The first one to scream out UPSET is Kentucky-Valporaiso.

The Wildcats were embarrassed by in-state foe Western Kentucky early in the season and most recently by NIT participant South Carolina. They are having the type of year that would make Coach Adolph Rupp roll over in his grave.

Valpo has been a popular upset pick for several years in the NCAA tournament. After missing the field last season, the Crusaders are back in the dance with close road losses to Arizona and Kansas. Both UK and VU campuses are close to the St. Louis site so that should be a non-factor.

In the other St. Louis matchup, Marquette and Tulsa isn't your average No. 5 - No. 12-seed game, with the Golden Hurricane bringing experience to the tournament. I expect Valpo and Marquette to move on. Tubby Smith's squad is due for a first round shocker after near losses to St. Bonaventure and ahem... Holy Cross the last two seasons.

As we head up I-55 to the midwest region in Chicago, a matchup between No. 5 Florida and No. 12 Creighton looks very intriguing to me. The Gators are the type of team that could get hot and go straight to the Final Four or lose in the first round.

In 2000, fifth-seeded Florida lost to Michigan State in the national title game, but narrowly escaped a first-round battle with No. 12 Butler. I don't think these Gators are as good as the '00 team and Creighton is a Butler-esque type of team. They are a mid-major from the midwest looking for a little bit of exposure.

Creighton Coach Dana Altman, who led the Blue Jays and Kansas State to NCAA appearances, has his team playing at the top of its game.

I also like Pepperdine to beat Wake Forest in a No. 7 - No. 10-seed game in Sacramento, but, of course, that wouldn't be a major upset. It seems like former NBA Coach Paul Westphal's team would benefit from playing on the west coast. A Sweet 16 appearance would not be out of the realm of possibility for the Waves, who defeated Gonzaga, USC, and UCLA.

Also in Sacramento, Rick Majerus should lead his 12th-seeded Utes past fifth-seeded Indiana. Utah won't be lucky enough to get by the more athletic USC Trojans.

In Pittsburgh, the Big East regular season champion Panthers will play Central Connecticut State. Look for Pitt to eke by the Blue Devils, but don't expect them to beat California. Things won't go as usual for Ben Howland's club if Brandin Knight is hampered by the injury he suffered late in the UConn game.

Seventh-seeded Oklahoma State has been overrated all season long. The Cowboys lost at Kansas State and sleepwalked in a quarterfinal loss to Texas Tech. They also didn't play inspired basketball when league powerhouse Kansas visited Stillwater in January. This team doesn't have much heart and Kent State will become the second K-State to deal the Pokes a loss this season.

Surprise teams in the west could be Missouri and Hawaii. The Tigers were clearly selected as one of the last teams in the tourney. Mizzou started off at the top of the national polls and didn't live up to its billing. Lucky for the Tigers, both Miami and Ohio State are beatable foes within their bracket.

Tenth-seeded Hawaii hasn't received much attention from the mainland press, but the Warriors have an impressive record and a good chance to defeat Atlantic 10 Champion Xavier.

The upsets will keep rolling as second round play begins, so stay tuned for another column about the uncertainty of those matchups.

I leave you with my Sweet 16, Elite Eight, Final Four Picks:

Sweet 16: Cincinnati, Missouri, Arizona, Oklahoma, Maryland, Marquette, Texas Tech, UConn, Kansas, Illinois, Mississippi State, Pepperdine, Duke, USC, California, Kent State.

Elite Eight: Cincinnati, Arizona, Marquette, Texas Tech, Illinois, Mississipi State, Duke, California.

Final Four: Arizona, Marquette, Mississippi State, Duke.

Championship: Duke over Arizona repeat.