The Hook -- NL East Breakdown (Part 2) - Marlins and Expos

By James Meyerriecks FantasyInfoCentral.com Cardinals Correspondent

For previous division previews, click the following links: * AL East Part 1 - Division overview/Baltimore Orioles * AL East Part 2 - Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees * AL East Part 3 - Tampa Bay Devil Rays/Toronto Blue Jays * NL East Part 1 - Division overview/Atlanta Braves

During our season previews, we will be accompanying players with ratings as to where they belong in a typical twelve team 5X5 rotisserie league draft with 25 rounds. The breakdowns will be as follows...

******, Rounds 1-3 *****, Rounds 4-6 ****, Rounds 7-10 ***, Rounds 11-15 **, Rounds 16-20 *, Rounds 21-25

No stars will be for players who are likely to (and should, in my opinion) go undrafted

Florida Marlins

Projected Rotation

A.J. Burnett **** Brad Penny **** Josh Beckett **** Carl Pavano ** Mark Redman **

Closer

Braden Looper ** Tim Spooneybarger ***

Starters

Burnett remained a bit wild last season, but he was one of the better hurlers in the league. After going 12-9 with a 3.30 ERA and striking out 203 in just his second season in the big leagues, Burnett seems to be on the fast track to stardom as one of the league's best power pitchers for years to come. The problem, however, is that he's the poster boy for Florida's pitcher abuse, as he threw over 100 pitches in 20 of his 29 starts last season, while finishing the season with 5 shutouts and 7 complete games.

The Hook: Provided that Jeff Torborg learns to ease up on his young power arms, Burnett's a solid pickup anywhere after the fifth with his filthy stuff.

Penny took a step back last year, struggling with inconsistency most of the way. After a breakout 2001 season where he finished with 10 wins, a 3.69 ERA, and a 1.16 WHIP, Penny looked very hittable throughout the 2002 season, allowing a .286 average against. He should put it back together this season and still has the potential to be a fantasy ace. Penny has the stuff to strike out about 200 while keeping a low 3 ERA and a solid WHIP.

The Hook: Knock him back towards the tenth round and pounce on him if he's available.

Beckett suffered through his first season because of a chronic blister on his right middle finger. Originally projected as a four-category stud, Beckett was grabbed as early as the third round in some drafts last season as a rookie. Provided that he can keep the blisters under control, Beckett is a kid who will strike out more batters than a batter an inning while posting a strong low-three ERA and an amazing WHIP. The Hook: His win total will only come along if the Marlins give him some support, but he's a steal somewhere in the lower half of the top ten rounds. Some people will back off because of the blisters last year, but don't let him slide too far.

Carl Pavano hasn't looked quite the same since surgery in 2000. Originally projected to be a #2 or 3 starter in the majors, Pavano has struggled in recovering from his elbow surgery and has gone 7-17 with an ERA over 5 and a WHIP over 1.55 the past two seasons. He did finish strong, going 3-0 in September.

The Hook: While he may be someone to keep an eye on, don't bother unless he shows he's healthy.

Mark Redman figures to benefit tremendously from the trade with the Tigers in the offseason. He'll remain in a pitcher's park and should see a bit more support from a scrappy Marlins bunch than he did in Detroit last season. Despite posting solid secondary numbers in Comerica (4.21 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), Redman is coming off of an 8-15 season. Look for him to hit double digits in wins this year with the fish.

The Hook: A solid sleeper who could win 10-12 games with a decent ERA and WHIP. He's more of a finesse guy, so don't expect him to rack up the strikeouts, but he's a solid filler at the back of a fantasy rotation.

Bullpen

Braden Looper should break camp as the closer for the second consecutive year, but he's suspect at best. After a poor start, Looper took on a little less pressure in a setup role and finished with a respectable 3.13 ERA in just over 80 innings. He brings the heat, but really doesn't have anything to go with it. Don't count on him for more than 25 saves, assuming he holds onto his job.

The Hook: Looper is better suited for a setup role. His secondary numbers are decent, but they don't blow you away like most closers should. His inability to develop a strikeout pitch should hinder him, and you shouldn't bank on him holding his job past midseason. As he'll still at least see anywhere from ten to twenty save opportunities, he's worth a late pick, but nothing more.

Tim Spooneybarger was the centerpiece of the second Mike Hampton deal in the offseason. At just 23, Spoon has already mastered three dominant pitches and will eventually replace Looper, possibly as soon as this season. He still needs to work on his control (4.5 walks per 9 IP), and his strikeouts should come as he gains better command. The potential is there, but look for him to break camp as the primary setup man.

The Hook: An excellent mid-late sleeper, Spoon is a solid pickup anywhere after the fifteenth round. He should be taken ahead of incumbent closer Looper in a lot of drafts.

Sleepers

Michael Tejera should still be in the mix for a shot at the rotation. After Redman was acquired from the Tigers, his value took a bit of a hit, but he'll be first in line to fill in for an injured starter. He doesn't have any dominant pitches, but mixes them well and was pretty effective last season, especially early on. He may not have the stuff for any long-term success, but he could surprise.

Montreal Expos

Projected Rotation

Javier Vazquez **** Tony Armas, Jr. *** Tomokazu Ohka *** Orlando Hernandez *** Sun-Woo Kim *

Closer

Scott Stewart ** T.J. Tucker * Joey Eischen *

Starters

After a breakout year in 2001, Vazquez took a major step back last year, adding .49 to his ERA and .19 to his WHIP in a year where pitching numbers across the board improved. He relies mainly on two pitches, but has some breaking balls that he adds to the table and has excellent command (walked less than 2 per 9 IP last year). The pressure of being this team's ace was removed from him last season with the Bartolo Colon deal, but he struggled as soon as it was removed. At just 26 (hard to imagine that he's been the Expos ace four years running at the start of the season), he's entering his prime and may improve on his 2001 numbers, but should definitely improve on last year.

The Hook: An ace who may slip past the fifth round. Vazquez shouldn't really go any lower, but may end up sliding down into the lower half of the top ten rounds. He's a lock to challenge 200 strikeouts and should bag 15+ wins.

Armas has the stuff to be the #2 starter on this staff, but will likely break camp in the three or four hole. With a hard fastball and a nice change, Armas has the potential to strike out anywhere from 175 to 190 hitters and garner plenty of wins. He's had issues with his control since joining the big club three years ago, and could drastically improve his ERA and WHIP if he manages to improve his command. Despite battling back pain for much of the season last year, he finished 12-12 with a 4.44 ERA.

The Hook: Armas should garner at least another 12 wins this season with a low four ERA and a decent WHIP. He's a solid pick in the early-to-mid teens.

Tomokazu Ohka finally broke out last season, posting a 3.18 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in just under 200 innings. He garnered the most wins of any returning starter (13) and may continue to grow a bit. He'll never really develop into much of a strikeout pitcher, which limits his fantasy value, but he has excellent control and should improve if he can learn to get righties out (1.40 WHIP vs. righties as opposed to 1.04 vs. lefties).

The Hook: If nothing else, Ohka is consistent. It would seem that 2002 was pretty close to his high-water mark, but he should put up similar numbers for a few years. Ohka's a solid pick after the tenth round.

Orlando Hernandez brings his 33 (well... somewhere under 43) year old arm over to the Expos as part of the three-way deal that sent Bartolo Colon to the White Sox. Hernandez is coming off of his best season since 1998, but he's not reliable enough to recommend for a fantasy squad. When he pitches, he's an effective four category performer, but Hernandez has dealt with nagging injuries in four of his five seasons in the league, and started just 22 games last season. Anything more than eight wins will be a bonus, but he'll post solid secondary numbers. Cross your fingers that he'll give you more than 120 innings if you draft him.

The Hook: El Puque is one of those players that always seems to go in the lower half of the top ten or the early teens. As often as he actually pitches, he's worth nothing more than a late flyer, but will be in the Expos rotation as long as he's healthy.

Sun-Woo Kim is the front-runner for the fifth spot in the Expos rotation, and could thrive if he wins the role. He has three above average pitches and has made great adjustments to hitters in the minors over the last two seasons. While he struggled when called up in Boston, he was dominant in three starts at the end of last season after being traded to Montreal.

Kim is a solid late-round sleeper who could find a way to win ten games if everything breaks right. Don't count on a ton of strikeouts.

Bullpen

Scott Stewart will likely remain the primary closer for the Expos despite an up and down year in 2002. He was lights-out at times last year, but struggled through July and September. While he's far from a sure thing, Stewart should garner 20 save opportunities or more unless the team finds a way to deal for a closer with their strapped budget.

The Hook: Strapped budget are the key words here. With a better bullpen last season, the Expos probably could have challenged the Braves a bit more in the East. The team can't afford to improve their bullpen situation, so Stewart's owners will enjoy another year of him being the de facto closer. He's a good pick after the fifteenth round, and could be an excellent third closer on most teams.

T.J. Tucker was viewed as the closer of the future in Montreal for the first half of last season, but fell apart in the second half. He doesn't have phenomenal stuff, but should get a crack at the role if Stewart struggles, and should pick up the occasional save in a bullpen-by-committee either way.

The Hook: Not necessarily worth a pick, but he's as good a longshot as any after all of the primary closers are gone.

Joey Eischen produced his best year in professional ball last year, suddenly emerging with a Chris Hammond-like 1.34 ERA in 53 innings. Not to be overlooked, though, is his 1.32 WHIP, which is far from closer material. Eischen is already 32, and the fact that he's a career journeyman should point out that he won't likely have a ninth-inning role. He should be in line for some holds as the primary lefthanded setup man, though.

The Hook: Watch him, but don't draft him.

Sleepers

Tim Drew was effective after coming over in the (first) Bartolo Colon trade last season. A middling prospect, Drew could either win the fifth spot in the rotation with a good Spring or earn himself a spot in the closer-by-committee.

Rocky Biddle (acquired in the recent Colon deal) should fit into the same situation as Drew. With a good Spring, he could bump Kim from the rotation, but he'll most likely end up as a long reliever. If he wins a spot in the rotation, he could win 7-10 games.

Be sure to check back tomorrow, when we complete our look at the NL East with an in-depth look at the staffs of the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies.

Article courtesy of Fantasy Information Central.