The Hook -- NL East Breakdown (Part 1)

By James Meyerriecks FantasyInfoCentral.com Cardinals Correspondent

Spring Training is right around the corner and baseball fans are getting set for another great season. In the next few weeks, we'll preview the pitching staffs for the 2003 MLB season. Today, we'll begin our look at the National League East with a divisional overview and a look at the Atlanta Braves.

Links to last week's AL East preview are listed below: * Part 1 * Part 2 * Part 3

During our season previews, we will be accompanying players with ratings as to where they belong in a typical twelve team 5X5 rotisserie league draft with 25 rounds. The breakdowns will be as follows...

******, Rounds 1-3 *****, Rounds 4-6 ****, Rounds 7-10 ***, Rounds 11-15 **, Rounds 16-20 *, Rounds 21-25

No stars will be for players who are likely to (and should, in my opinion) go undrafted

Starters

Kevin Millwood ***** Greg Maddux ***** A.J. Burnett **** Javier Vazquez **** Randy Wolf **** Tom Glavine **** Josh Beckett **** Al Leiter **** Brad Penny **** Vicente Padilla *** Russ Ortiz *** Paul Byrd *** Tomokazu Ohka *** Tony Armas, Jr. *** Pedro Astacio *** Orlando Hernandez *** Mike Hampton ** Bret Myers ** Steve Trachsel ** Mark Redman ** Jason Marquis ** Brandon Duckworth ** Carl Pavano ** Sun-Woo Kim * Jason Middlebrook

Relievers

John Smoltz ***** Armando Benitez **** Jose Mesa *** Scott Stewart ** Tim Spooneybarger ** Braden Looper ** T.J. Tucker * Joey Eischen *

Sleepers

Michael Tejera Tim Drew Rocky Biddle Mike Bacsik Aaron Heilman Terry Adams

N.L. East Breakdown

Amazingly enough, the N.L. East is home to as many as nine pitchers who are worth a serious look in the single digit rounds of your draft. There's not a single bad staff in the East, with a good mix of veteran studs and potential future aces throughout the division. The problem to take into consideration is that these same pitchers will face each other an awful lot head to head, and someone's going to have to pull through in those games.

Let's start out with the wiley veterans who just won't go away. Greg Maddux will anchor the Braves staff for the tenth consecutive year, and has shown little indication of yielding his spot amongst the elite after his 16-6, 2.62 campaign in 2002. He'll likely miss former #2 Tom Glavine, who will join another veteran lefty, Al Leiter, atop the Mets rotation. Glavine and Leiter each kept low-three ERAs last season and each posted double digit win totals for what seems like the umpteenth year in a row. Even the supposedly 31-year-old Orlando Hernandez will join the fold this year, as a starter with the potential to win 15 games if he should remain healthy for the whole season.

Entering their prime, we have Kevin Millwood, who was possibly the most dominant hurler in the National League after June 1 last season as he won fifteen of sixteen decisions between late May and early September. Joining Millwood would be his new teammate, Randy Wolf, who has lowered his ERA three years running and seems ready to bust out in a big way after his 11-9, 3.20 ERA season in 2002. Javier Vazquez will look to rebound after taking a step back last season, but he should just be entering his prime years as a starter in the bigs at the age of 26.

Kids? Florida's Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, and Brad Penny's ages don't even add up to 70 combined, but they've all been in the majors for over a year and could be as devastating a 1-2-3 punch as Hudson-Mulder-Zito if they all remain healthy. Brett Myers may not have a world of experience, but, at just 22, has been described as the next Curt Schilling. He could start dominating major league hitters as early as this season, and should crack the Phils rotation.

Atlanta Braves

Projected Rotation

Greg Maddux ***** Mike Hampton ** Russ Ortiz *** Paul Byrd *** Jason Marquis **

Closer

John Smoltz *****

Starters

Greg Maddux threw GM John Schuerholtz a curveball when he accepted arbitration in December, meaning he'll be back with the club for the eleventh straight year. Despite the fact that Maddux will turn 37 in April, he remains an elite hurler who has a few good fantasy years left in him. Though he's always been more of a finesse pitcher, his strikeouts were way down last season (118) and his durability finally seemed to take a hit, as he threw under 200 innings (199.3) for the first time since 1998. He's still someone that you can pretty much bank on getting fifteen wins with an ERA around 3 and a solid WHIP. Maddux will go high in some drafts, but many fantasy owners will back off of him because of his age.

The Hook: If he slips anywhere after the first five rounds, he's a solid pickup.

Hampton will be out to prove all of the doubters wrong this season, as many think that he's not the same guy he was before he went to Colorado. In truth, he doesn't look like he is. Over the last two seasons, Hampton has actually maintained a better ERA in Coors than he did on the road (5.73 at home, 5.77 on the road). Many will try and grab him solely based on name recognition, but even during Hampton's consecutive career years in 1999 and 2000, he was still no better than an average pitcher in two categories (WHIP - 1.32... average of 164 strikeouts) that upper tier starters should be carrying.

The Hook: Considering that he's coming off of a season in which he walked more batters (91) than he struck out (74), let someone else waste a pick on him.

Russ Ortiz has been phenomenal at home the last two years. Do not, however, make the mistake of drafting him expecting the same ERA and WHIP that he had in the friendliest pitcher's park in the majors. While he allowed just four homers over the past two seasons in Pac Bell, Ortiz was very mortal on the road, allowing almost a homer per start. A few more balls will clear the fence in Turner Field, but Ortiz should adjust and keep his ERA in the high-three's to low-four's. He'll remain a solid second-tier starter who could move up to elite status if he could just improve his command. He's averaged 4.4 walks per nine innings over his career, which he has cut to about 3.5 in the last two years.

The Hook: Ortiz is a solid pickup somewhere around the tenth round.

Paul Byrd has pitched well for the past season and a half with a team that's not expected to contend, but he may struggle a bit with the pressure of pitching for a division front-runner. Byrd adds yet another finesse pitcher to the Braves rotation, as he gets by mainly because of stellar control and trickiness. He'll likely remain somewhere around last season's 3.90 ERA with a solid WHIP, despite a more pitcher-friendly park, and should see another 15+ win season. Just don't count on him for more than 130 strikeouts.

The Hook: Like Ortiz, he's solid anywhere around the tenth round.

Jason Marquis can feel free to break out at anytime. He regressed a bit after a strong 2001 trial in the rotation, and runs very hot and cold. Just 25, Marquis has a great fastball that can touch the high 90's which he complements with a good slider. As he continues to develop his command, he should become a force in strikeout leagues and could pile up the wins in Atlanta.

The Hook: Jump on him late if he's there after the 17th round or so.

Bullpen

Converted starter John Smoltz proved that he can be effective for a full season out of the bullpen last season, and then some. His 55 saves fell just two short of Bobby Thigpen's record as he finished the season with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP with more strikeouts than innings pitched. Removing his second outing of the season from the equation, Smoltz was flat-out dominant, allowing just 21 runs in 80 innings (2.36 ERA).

The Hook: Smoltz will likely be one of the first three closers gone in your draft, and is one of the few closers who is worthy of a selection before the fifth round when the closer runs usually begin.

Ray King will hold down the setup role, a spot which he held down effectively in Milwaukee for the past couple of seasons. King doesn't exactly have dominant stuff, but he's brutal on lefthanded hitters and is learning to get righties out as well.

The Hook: He should be a lock for 20 holds if your league uses them.

Be sure to check back tomorrow when we continue our look at the National League East with an in-depth look at the staffs of the Florida Marlins and Montreal Expos.

Article courtesy of Fantasy Information Central.