Olympic Preview (Part 2 of 2)

In Part 1, of this speedskating preview, we looked at the USA Olympic men's team. In Part 2, we will look at the women's team.

It took a lot longer for the International Olympic Committee to get around to the conclusion that women could speedskate, too -- and well.

Three-and-a-half decades after the Games began and 24 years after its first world championships, women were welcomed into the Olympic speedskating fold in 1960.

Of late, the sprint distances have been the domain of North American skaters, while the Germans kicked tail on the all around.

That does not figure to change when the first 3,000m skaters take the line on Sunday.

It also doesn't figure to decrease the drama quotient, as you have women who have served their sport proudly, face their swan songs; where one in her mid-20's has the potential to go where only one other skater of her gender has gone before -- three gold medals.

And where an illness may KO the hopes of this country's most experienced medal winner since Bonnie Blair's retirement before she even takes a stride.

Oh yes, and for the first time since 1988, no one named Gunda Niemann will be skating in a Winter Olympics.

A fairly huge development since she is awaiting the birth of her first child in early summer.

All women's events start at Kearns at 3:00 p.m. eastern, save for the 500 and 1,000 (7:00 p.m.).

Races will be analyzed in date order. All Olympic records are from Nagano, and the winners of the 2001 World Single Distance (WSD) Championships are listed since that was the first international event at the Kearns Olympic venue. As always, WR=world record, while OR=Olympic record.

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3,000 (Sunday)
WR: 3:59.27 (Claudia Pechstein, GER, 3/2/01, Calgary)
OR: 4:07.29 (Niemann-Stirnemann, 2/11/98)
Team USA: Jennifer Rodriguez, Catherine Raney
2001 WSD Champion: Niemann-Stirnemann

Analysis: A great deal of speculation ensued when Gunda withdrew from the Games as to who would challenge German supremacy -- for third place. Friesinger's first of four races begins here, and there is a legitimate contender on the horizon; Gretha Smit of the Netherlands, a marathon skater (one who competes in races around 100 kilometers (yes, you read that right), has posted some exceptional times of late, and may give Friesinger a scare. Pechstein, her German teammate, just can't cut a break; she was Niemann's foil all these years, and now Friesinger has been on a supreme tear.

At times, it hasn't been all sweetness and light between Friesinger and Pechstein. According to Time magazine's European website, at the 1995 German all around championships, Friesinger no-showed due to illness; Pechstein suggested she was faking it. At last month's European Championships in Erfurt, Germany, Pechstein was ill, but stayed in the competition -- and beat Friesinger on the 5,000. Friesinger after the races were over: "She couldn't really have been that ill." Pechstein, upon hearing this: "She speaks like she is in kindergarten."

Other candidates for third are Dutchwoman Renate Groenewold, Japan's Maki Tabata, Canadian Cindy Klassen, and our own Rodriguez, who was fourth in Nagano in 1998. From here, though, J-Rod will have to wait until the 17th for her first real shot at the podium.

Prediction:
Gold: Friesinger
Silver: Pechstein
Bronze: Smit in an upset

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500 (next Wednesday and Thursday)
WR: 37.22 (Catriona Lemay Doan, CAN, 12/9/01, Calgary)
OR: 38.21 (Lemay Doan, 2/14/98)
Team USA: Becky Sundstrom, Elli Ochowicz, Amy Sannes, Chris Witty
2001 WSD Champion: Lemay Doan

Analysis: There has been since the 1984 Sarajevo Games, a span of five consecutive Olympics, a top 10 finish by an American woman on the 500m. But, that successful run took a staggering, mortal blow with the revelation that Witty is battling mononucleosis for the past couple of months, a condition which can take up to a full year to recover. It does not appear she will be anywhere near full fitness for a pair of races. The advice here was that she ditch the 500 and wait until next Sunday (for the 1,000). Witty will, nonetheless, give it a go here. At any rate, this is Catriona Lemay Doan's yard, and Andrea Nuyt (the latest woman to go under 38 seconds in a pre-Olympic meet in Calgary) of the Netherlands, Monique Garbrecht-Enfeldt and Sabine Volker of Germany, and the fast-on-their-heels Anzhelika Kotyuga of Belarus will battle for silver and bronze. Not on the short list is two-time defending silver medalist Susan Auch of Canada, who has had a dreadful pre-Olympic campaign. It sadly appears she opted for one Olympics too many.

Prediction:
Gold - Lemay Doan
Silver - Nuyt
Bronze - Garbrecht-Enfeldt

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1,000 (February 17)
WR: 1:14.06 (Volker, 12/2/01, Kearns)
OR: 1:16.51 (Marianne Timmer, NED, 2/17/98)
Team USA: Rodriguez, Witty, Sannes, Sundstrom (1,500m team as well)
2001 WSD Champion: Garbrecht-Enfeldt

Analysis: Timmer, who shockingly upset then-world record holder Witty for her second Nagano Games gold, doesn't figure to be in the mix here, as she has been fighting a hip problem. This is the widest-open field of the women's races by far. Contenders abound; Lemay Doan's kilometer improved to the point she regained the world sprints title she won last in 1998. Volker set the world record on the second day on the Kearns Olympic ice, 24 hours after Rodriguez's first career world cup victory. And Kotyuga's 1,000 victory on the first day of the sprints was the first medal by a Belarus skater in almost a decade, followed by Volker's second day win in the final 1,000 before the Games. Sannes did score a fourth place on the Sprints' second 1,000, but is spotty at best. Witty will race this one even if she has to be propped up on the starting line. But, it will take the race of her life, I fear, just to get in the top 5.

Prediction:
Gold - Volker
Silver - Rodriguez
Bronze - Lemay Doan

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1,500 (February 19)
WR: 1:54.35 (Friesinger, 3/4/01, Calgary, 2001 WSD Champion)
OR: 1:57.58 (Timmer, 2/15/98)

Analysis: The woman-o-a-woman-o showdown of the Games occurs here; Friesinger vs. Rodriguez. They have a history, going back to last March's WSD, where Rodriguez had the German on the ropes the most in any race last season, but Friesinger rallied to win and J-Rod ran out of gas and finished out of the medals. Friesinger has owned the metric mile, but Rodriguez has never let up, and will most certainly improve on her 8th place finish from Nagano. Klassen, Groenewold and Tabata are also not to be overlooked. Pechstein is a longshot, and Timmer, with her back trouble, more so. So what to do -- pick with one's heart or one's head?

Prediction:
Gold - Friesinger
Silver - Rodriguez
Bronze - Tabata

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5,000 (February 23, final speedskating event of the Games)
WR: 6:52.39 (Niemann-Stirnemann, 3/11/01, Kearns, WSD Champion)
OR: 6:59.61 (Pechstein, 2/22/98)

Analysis: Here, Rodriguez (the lone U.S. skater) isn't the best North American -- Klassen is, and she drove the point home with a stunning sub-seven minute skate at the Canadian Olympic Trials in Calgary less than seven weeks ago. She is one of only three women to accomplish that, Pechstein the other who will skate here. This will be Dutchwoman Gretha Smit's best shot at a top five finish, since she seems to be most comfortable at this distance. Friesinger has yet to skate below seven minutes on any 5,000 she's done, and that will be necessary, it looks from here, to get the gold. So the possibility exists her drive for a gold medal triple crown could end here. Groenewold and Tabata are definite contenders as well.

Prediction:
Gold - Pechstein
Silver - Klassen
Bronze - Friesinger or Smit

So the only prediction left then is this -- how many world records will fall? Not as many as some are predicting, if WSD and the Kearns world cup in December are any barometer. I do believe all four 500 and 1,000m current records are toast, and burnt at that. Of the remaining six (men's and women's 1,500 and 5,000, women's 3000 and men's 10,000) only Niemann-Stirnemann's epochal 5K effort yielded a world record for Kearns on a distance above 1,500, even with the above-sea-level advantage Kearns has over Calgary (almost 400 meters higher up). On January 27, Erben Wennemars of the Netherlands set an unofficial world record on the men's 1,500 in a test race, so maybe the metric milers have a fighting chance. Figure, perhaps one other world record, or a barrier-breaking feat like Romme going under 13 minutes on the 10,000, who if he brings his "A" game on the ice is certainly capable of doing that, and no less than six world records -- seven, tops -- would be as good a number to guesstimate.

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Speedskating, when you get down to it, is a matter of splits. Split times, that is.

As you're watching the races over the next fortnight, and since the commentators probably won't think of announcing split times if they're close to a particular race's world record, note those times. Knowing how close skaters come to a world record on a particular race can heighten the drama as you're watching.

For example, on the 500, there is only one split time, the opening 100 meters. In the 1,000, there are two (200 and 600 meters). A metric mile has 300m, 700m, and 1,100m intervals. The women's 3,000 checkpoints are 200, 600, 1000, 1400, 1800, 2200 and 2600 meters. Both 5,000m races have those splits, and add stops at 3000, 3400, 3800, 4200 and 4600 meters. A 10,000m's lap times occur after every 400 meters (400-800-1200-1600-2000-2400-2800-3200-3600-4000-4400-4800-5200-5600-6000-6400-6800-7200-7600-8000-8400-8800-9200 and 9600m)

Here are the current world record split times in each race, and let this be your guide as skaters challenge the ice -- and each other:

Men
500 (Shimizu: 9.45 - 34.32)
1000 (Wotherspoon: 16.26 - 40.97 - 1:07.72)
1500 (Lee: 23.22 - 49.08 - 1.16.54 - 1.45.20)
5000 (Romme: 18.36 - 46.95 - 1.15.99 - 1.45.59 - 2.15.29 - 2.45.16 - 3.15.00 - 3.45.11 - 4.15.42 - 4.45.90 - 5.16.69 - 5.47.68 - 6.18.72)
10000 (Romme: 33.70 - 1:04.07 - 1:34.56 - 2:04.85 - 2:35.36 - 3:05.67 - 3:36.15 - 4:06.79 - 4:37.54 - 5:08.46 - 5:39.79 - 6:11.07 - 6:42.33 - 7:13.82 - 7:45.37 - 8:16.73 - 8:47.98 - 9:19.49 - 9:50.95 - 10:22.19 - 10:53.96 - 11:26.29 - 11:58.86 - 12:31.39 - 13:03.40)

Women
500 (Lemay Doan: 10.21 - 37.22)
1000 (Volker: 17.87 - 44.96 - 1:14.06)
1500 (Friesinger: 25.54 - 54.39 - 1:23.85 - 1:54.38)
3000 (Pechstein: 19.95 - 51.08 - 1.22.40 - 1.53.66 - 2.24.75 - 2.56.06 - 3.27.60 - 3.59.26)
5000 (Niemann-Stirnemann: 20.59 - 52.26 - 1:25.03 - 1:58.01 - 2:30.57 - 3:02.65 - 3:34.73 - 4:07.21 - 4:39.67 - 5:12.51 - 5:45.61 - 6:18.90 - 6:52.44)

So now that the table has been set, let the feast begin. Complete recaps of the day's racing, and pairings for the next race will be the order of the day with each column to follow. Short track news will also be reported as well.

Let the Games begin (and let's hope Picabo Street brings our flag into Rice-Eccles Stadium tomorrow night!)