Braves reign nearing end despite Sheffield acquisition

As the 2001 off season begins drawing to a close, the Hot Stove perspective of the upcoming campaign has a decidedly split personality.

Through early January the talk centered around Steve Philip's startling restructuring of the Mets, which saw the transformation of an 82-80, third place product into a divisional powerhouse supported by a "Murderers Row" lineup boasting Elgardo Alphonzo, Roberto Alomar, Mike Piazza, Mo Vaughn and Jeremy Burnitz.

The Amazins were crowned, perhaps prematurely, as the "Off Season Champions" and were viewed by a solid representation of the baseball media as a near certainty to bring Atlanta's decade long domination of the National League Eastern Division to a close.

Then the Braves, surprisingly dormant during November and December, pulled the trigger on a deal that brought Gary Sheffield to Atlanta.

Sheffield, arguably one of the top three talents in baseball, came to the Braves from Los Angeles in exchange for Brian Jordan and Odalis Perez.

The perception of this trade was immediate! With one fell swoop the Braves had rendered the Mets busy winter to the back burner.

Columnist after columnist began uttering a familiar refrain.

"The Braves are not only the team to beat in the NL East, they are now the clear cut favorites."

Mets fans who have suffered the inferiority complex of playing second fiddle to Atlanta, a 2000 trip to the World Series notwithstanding, saw their month long psychological advantage stricken in an instant.

The Braves assumed their accustomed role as divisional favorites and the Mets acquisitions began losing flavor with many baseball scribes.

Vaughn, and now Burnitz, were dismissed as more of a strikeout threat then offensive gain, and a few noteworthy writers opined that the Mets, for all of their activity, were not yet a wild card certainty.

Bear in mind that the 2001 Mets staggered a dozen lengths behind Atlanta and Philadelphia all summer.

Hindered by a weak attack, a station to station defense and virtually no speed, they still charged headlong into the thick of the NL East race at the 11th hour, only to fall short by virtue of a pair of Armando Benitez ninth inning Atlanta nightmares.

The Sheffield deal reinforced a mindset of Atlanta divisional invincibility that has become more of a knee jerk reaction than a sober analysis of the power structure within the division.

The Braves are in visible decline! Their playoff performance in recent Octobers, never a strong suit to begin with, is a clear reflection of the reality that it has been some time since the Atlanta Braves could truthfully lay claim to being the class of the National League.

The foundation of Atlanta success, their stellar starting rotation, is diminished and the final vestiges of Braves NL East superiority lay in the performance of stalwarts Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine.

Glavine, still an elite hurler in his prime, is the true ace of the Atlanta rotation.

Maddux still glitters, yet has become a poor September and October performer, mirroring the ball club.

There are subtle indications that Maddux may be on the cusp of decline and anything less than a vintage Maddux year and the Braves will fade quickly.

Remember this is a club that dropped eight games out of first place by Memorial Day 2001 and had the cushion of knowing the Phillies were certain to return to the pack and the Mets were a shadow of the club that dueled the Braves for league supremacy in 1999 and 2000.

To imply that the Braves are now a divisional lock ignores the fact that Sheffield didn't come free.

Parting with the proven September and October bat of Brian Jordan, who was a centerpiece of the recent Atlanta run of divisional crowns, will impact Atlanta in a tight divisional race.

Sheffield, despite feel good pronouncements to the contrary, is no jewel in the clubhouse.

If Atlanta falls six or seven games off the pace by early June, Jordan's balance and professionalism will be missed.

It is an intangible lost in the Sheffield hysteria.

The Braves will score. Chipper Jones, Sheffield and Andruw Jones are all likely to hit over 30 home runs and drive in 100 or more.

With the evolution of Rafael Furcal and the sturdy Javy Lopez behind the plate the run scoring drought of last season will be a distant memory.

Yet, it is the Atlanta rotation where fair question can be raised.

With a starting rotation in question behind Glavine and Maddux, and a bullpen that is pedestrian at best in middle relief, the pressure will be on John Smoltz surgically repaired arm to keep the Braves on top.

They will need Sheffield's big stick to keep them on the right side of many of those 12-9 punch outs that loom on the 02' horizon.

Atlanta lost seven games off of their 95 win mark of 2000, when they retained the division by one length over the Mets.

In 2001, New York lost 12 victories off of their 94-68 mark of 2000.

You have to figure Sheffield will recover those seven games and a 95 victory campaign is a fair statement for Atlanta this season.

The Mets will be at least as potent in the victory column as in 2000 and if they put together any type of pitching 100 triumphs is clearly within reach.

Ten consecutive divisional championships is an astonishing achievement, yet it has become as much an albatross as an accomplishment for the perennially underachieving Braves.

Atlanta gave up against the Yankees in 1999, bowing out meekly in four games after their epic NLCS struggle against the Mets.

The following October they were slaughtered by Mark McGuire and company in three brutal games to be followed by a five game humbling at the hands to the Champions to be Diamondbacks last fall.

Conventional wisdom still rates Atlanta ahead on the merit of their pitching and the power afforded to their lineup by Sheffield.

The Mets are viewed as pitching thin with Leiter, always vulnerable to a lengthy stint on the DL.

He remains the ace of a rotation viewed as weakened after the Mets busy winter.

Interestingly, a year ago Kevin Appier was viewed widely as a poor mans Mike Hampton and considered a fair acquisition at best.

Now you would have thought Steve Philips dealt away Don Drysdale when Appier is compared to Shawn Estes.

Estes is as capable of assembling a 15 victory season as Appier was last year.

Bruce Chen and Pedro Astascio will be more than serviceable and can be relied upon for 25 to 30 in the "W" column with the offense that will be supporting them.

Granted, Traschel can't be trusted, and if he lurches out of the gate 3-10, by June the Mets will be looking northward at Atlanta again. Yet, he may have found himself with his stellar second half performance in 2001.

Not too long ago he helped pitch the Cubs into the postseason. He is fully capable of making a major contribution to this rotation!

Wishful thinking!

I don't think so. The Braves are on the precipice and barely survived in the division for the past two years.

They can't count on a Mets collapse in 2002 to sustain their dynasty and a return to contendership by Philadelphia is not completely out of the question.

People won't believe it until they see it yet look for post season baseball to elude Atlanta come this October.

The reign is about to end!