NCAA: Champaign dinner theater and Rupp's rupture of rapture

Michigan State and Illinois figured to duke it out for the Big 10 championship (and a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament, along with... well... Duke) before the season started. Now that the two teams will finally meet tonight, and for the only time in the regular season this year, the matchup is acquiring even greater stakes than anyone could have previously imagined.

With North Carolina's victory over Duke, the battle for the number one seed in the East Region has become a toss-up between the Heels and Blue Devils, who share the same geographical area. The possibility also exists that each team could get a top seed, but that the second-place team would get shipped elsewhere.

In the heartland, an amazingly similar scenario is unfolding, as the Spartans and Illini are vying for the number one spot in the Midwest Region. Michigan State has the better pedigree and a slightly better record, but the Spartans' two losses have both come in conference road games. If the Illini can turn back Tom Izzo's team tonight, it will become (Bill) Self-evident that Illinois will have a legitimate shot at playing in its own region as a 1 seed. This will especially be the case if the Illini win the regular season and conference tournament titles in the Big Ten.

But before looking too far down the road, the Illini must take care of business tonight against a supremely talented Spartan team that is battle-tested but still green at key positions. With the loss of Morris Peterson and Mateen Cleaves to graduation, Michigan State lacks the same big-game experience and poise it had last year. It is that very quality that has made the Spartans a vulnerable road team in their own league. Tonight at Illinois, the Spartans will need a huge performance from their backcourt, particularly Jason Richardson, to offset the Illini's more seasoned backcourt tandem of Frank Williams and Cory Bradford.

If Izzo can escape Champaign with a win, his chances of being the top dog in the Midwest Region (and thereby preventing UNC or Duke from getting a second number one seed in the ACC) will grow considerably.

As though the MSU-Illinois matchup isn't enough for one night, another fascinating and important game will take place in the SEC. If the Spartans and Illini rate five stars, then the matchup in Lexington between the ever-confident Florida Gators and the unshakable Kentucky Wildcats rates 4.9 stars.

The overall quality of the two teams is a slight notch below their Big 10 counterparts, but the storylines surrounding this Battle in the Baron's Barn of the Bluegrass are more than compelling.

Both the Wildcats and Gators have had their share of hardships this year, the Gators especially. The Wildcats were 4-5 at Christmastime, but a win over Indiana propelled them on a winning binge that has them atop the SEC Eastern Division. The Gators were a team in big trouble--and in the midst of a free fall--just three weeks ago. With point guard Teddy Dupay and forward Brent Wright out for extended periods of time, and with guard Justin Hamilton out for the year, a Gator team that stood 1-3 in the conference, and at the bottom of its division, saw the season passing away into oblivion.

Then the Gators managed to pull out a two-point win at Auburn, halting their slide and putting a winning feeling back into the program. Aided by the surprisingly quick return of Dupay, the Gators, who also got Wright back before Dupay's remarkable recovery, started to finish games strong and reverse their fortunes in the SEC. After double-digit wins over division rivals Tennessee and Georgia, the only divisional foe left for the Gators to conquer is Kentucky.

Tonight's game in Lexington sets up, then, as a matchup between an incredibly confident Florida team playing against a resilient Kentucky team in a place, Rupp Arena, that has broken the swagger and winning streaks of many a formidable visitor. And oh yeah, the stakes are almost as big as the main storyline itself.

With each team having suffered several losses, it will take at least a division championship, and quite possibly an SEC Tournament title as well, for either Florida or Kentucky--especially Kentucky--to get a top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament. A loss in tonight's game will dash Kentucky's hopes of a high seed, and it will put Florida's hopes for a better tournament draw in jeopardy.

Aside of the conference and postseason ramifications, Florida-Kentucky will entertain because the two coaches in this contest, besides being enormously good and successful at what they do, also worked together at Kentucky under Rick Pitino. Both Billy Donovan and Tubby Smith are used to handling the pressure, at Rupp Arena or anywhere else. The two Pitino proteges, who have already reached the national title game at their respective schools (with Smith winning and Donovan losing), will be working the sidelines harder than ever during this fascinating meeting of the irresistible force, Florida, and the immovable object, Kentucky, sometimes known as "Big Blue," an immovable entity in its own right.

Even though March is weeks away and a lot of games remain to be played, tonight's pair of showdowns will carry particular resonance throughout the rest of the season, possibly all the way to Minneapolis.