Super Bowl look-back

By Brad Oremland Sports Central Columnist

Predictions and Analysis

"The Panthers just aren't good enough to beat New England."

They didn't beat them, but in retrospect, the statement above was wrong.

"New England's defense will contain the Carolina rushing game and dare Jake Delhomme to beat Ty Law one-on-one."

That is exactly what happened. I'm just surprised it took Carolina so long to start passing.

"The Patriots will be surprised by how good Carolina's defense is -- everyone else has been -- but will create plays by stretching the field vertically and horizontally. They'll get the edge in field position because their defense will do more against the Panther offense than the Carolina defense will do against Charlie Weis' offense."

Yeah, except that New England didn't throw downfield as much as I expected -- or thought they should. Tom Brady's arm wasn't up to the challenge at least once. On Sunday, he joined Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw, and Joe Montana as the only two-time Super Bowl MVPs in history, and his young career looks very promising, but if he makes it to the Hall of Fame, it will be with smarts and savvy -- like Bob Griese -- not with spectacular natural skill like Dan Marino.

"For the Panthers to win, they'll have to force turnovers ... [and] at least two sacks ... They'll need to be really good in the red zone, on offense and defense, because the difference between field goals and touchdowns could easily decide this game. On offense, Davis and Foster will need to combine for at least 80 yards -- probably more -- and the team will need to get a couple of long plays."

Defense: one interception, no sacks. Allowed four TDs in the red zone. Offense: 92 rushing yards, but 33 came on one play. Carolina never got its rushing game going. The Panthers only reached the red zone once, and Ricky Proehl scored a touchdown. The team made a living on long plays (four over 30 yards).

"The Patriots will also need to do well in the red zone, and they can't let the Panthers beat them with special teams."

Special teams were probably about even. Troy Brown's first punt return was terrific, Adam Vinatieri hit the winning field goal, and they got a couple lucky bounces on kicks. On the other hand, Vinatieri missed a chip shot, had a kick blocked, and made that awful squib kick at the end of the first half. The Panthers shot themselves in the foot with that out-of-bounds kickoff at the end of the game.

"Patriots 20, Panthers 10."

I meant 32-29. At the end of the first quarter, when neither team had scored, my roommate asked me if I thought it would be lowest-scoring Super Bowl ever (the record is 21). After some squirming, I said yes. Shows what I know.

Plays and Players

How hard was it to pick an MVP for this game? If defeated players are eligible, Steve Smith, Jake Delhomme, and Muhsin Muhammad all have a case. From the Patriots, Brady was a very reasonable choice, but Antowain Smith and Deion Branch were also major difference-makers. And how about the offensive line that protected Brady all day and opened up gaps for Smith and Kevin Faulk? Kris Jenkins got so frustrated -- or overexcited -- that he kept jumping offsides to try to make a play. I actually voted for a defensive player, Richard Seymour. Ted Washington and Mike Vrabel had nice games, too.

Troy Brown and Washington were clearly the difference-makers at the beginning of the game. Brown did something terrific every time he touched the ball, and Washington and Seymour shut down Carolina's offense so thoroughly that the Panthers only had 13 net yards at the end of the first quarter, with their only first down coming on a penalty.

New England's defensive dominance continued into the beginning of the second quarter. When the Patriots tallied the game's first score with 3:05 left in the half, Carolina actually had negative net yardage and Delhomme had only completed one pass, for one yard. They finally started passing downfield at that point, and New England's defense looked completely unprepared for it.

Meanwhile, Brady, Smith, and Branch had taken control of the game on the other side of the ball. Smith's effectiveness set up two easy touchdowns for the Patriots, and the playaction made things easier for Smith. That's why being effective early in the game is so important for an offense. When you've got the defense trying to prevent you from doing one thing, you hit them from the other direction with something else.

The Panthers were down by four at halftime and by three at the final gun, but I thought Carolina made much better adjustments at the half than New England did. Romeo Crennel kept Tyrone Poole (instead of Ty Law) on Steve Smith and he got burned for several big plays. New England also didn't blitz much, almost playing a "prevent" defense at the end of the game. Even if they didn't get to Jake Delhomme, maybe the pressure would have limited his passes to 15 yards or less instead of so many deep strikes. The linebackers dropping into middle coverage didn't do anything, because Carolina stopped running short pass routes and just torched the Pats deep.

New England controlled time of possession in the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth, and I think they tired out Carolina's defense just enough to help themselves move the ball at the end when they needed to. The third quarter, like the first, was scoreless, but New England dominated field position and seemed poised to take control of the game. Brady and Smith kept the Patriots creeping down the field, and the New England offensive line deserves a lot of credit.

Carolina came right back on its first possession of the second half, scoring on DeShaun Foster's 33-yard TD run, the longest New England allowed all season. The Panthers had two incomplete passes and four plays that all went for more than 10 yards. If there's a downside, it's that the Pats got the ball back after only two minutes and immediately went on a five-minute drive that left Carolina on its own 10-yard line.

Phil Simms and Boomer Esiason went after John Fox for attempting a two-point conversion after Foster's touchdown. I wouldn't have gone for it, but I don't think it was a terrible call.

The Panthers scored again after Brady's interception, but this drive -- and I use that term loosely since it only lasted three plays -- lasted 45 seconds, putting Carolina's defense right back on the field. I don't want to overemphasize this, because I think the defense did a pretty good job of fighting exhaustion, but it certainly made some difference. The Patriots immediately drove down the field again -- their third trip in a row to the red zone -- and scored on Brady's pass to Vrabel.

Showing the kind of poise they have all season, Carolina put together its own drive and tied the score on Ricky Proehl's touchdown. Rodney Harrison was injured earlier in the drive, and the Pats looked confused on defense. Harrison was my Defensive Player of the Year for 2003, and he put in a solid game, leading his team in tackles and sacking Delhomme once. It seems fair to say the team missed him even for the couple of plays he was out.

I'm not sure quite what happened on the bad kickoff that followed Proehl's touchdown. I didn't see the ball clearly and, next thing I knew, there was a yellow flag and the announcers said the kick was out of bounds. The resulting field position -- to say nothing of extra time on the clock -- put the Patriots in position to win the game, and I think people will talk about John Kasay's kickoff for a long time, with the discussion getting harsher. I'm talking Earl Morrall (Super Bowl III) and Scott Norwood (XXV) harsh.

Overall, though, Kasay probably had a better day than Vinatieri. His 50-yarder before the half gave the Panthers momentum going into the break, and his earlier kickoffs were fine. Vinatieri had missed an easy 31-yard kick and later had a 36-yarder blocked. His squib kick near the end of the half, while not totally his fault since the orders to squib presumably came from the sidelines, was a thing of ugliness, and probably just as bad as Kasay's kickoff two quarters later.

Vinatieri, though, will be remembered as a hero since he made a game-winning 41-yard FG with :04 left. SuperBowl.com even had a poll posted after the game, asking whether Vinatieri is a future Hall of Famer because of his two Super Bowl-winning kicks. The answer, of course, is no. Two kicks do not make a career, and Vinatieri's has been good but not legendary. If Vinatieri gets in without putting together a Gary Andersen/son-like career, then Gino Cappelleti, Tom Dempsey, Jason Elam, and Nick Lowery should all start writing letters.

Fortunately, the actual HOF voters have much stricter standards than whoever's been voting online. Vinatieri, at this point, would be football's equivalent of Tinker to Evers to Chance -- three men who might not be in Cooperstown except that there's a poem about them.

Anyway, after the kickoff and an incomplete pass on first down, Brady completed five passes in a row (one was called back because of a penalty) to set up Vinatieri's kick, which iced the game. The subsequent kickoff was returned to Carolina's 22, and time expired. A great game. I'll say top-10, but not top-five.

Final Thoughts

The Patriots are the closest thing the NFL has to a dynasty at the moment, but I wouldn't go so far as to actually give them that title yet. In fact, I think New England is going to struggle next season, especially on offense. Whoever wins the Super Bowl gets studied relentlessly during the offseason, and anyone with the Patriots on their schedule is going to come up with a plan to stop New England's one-dimensional offense, which basically lives and dies with short passes.

Developing Bethel Johnson into a consistent deep threat would be a great start, and keeping the line healthy will obviously make a positive difference, but I think a minor overhaul of the offensive personnel might be necessary. And although Bill Belichick's team thrives partially because most of its players are team-driven rather than ego-driven, New England's style of play really demands a better running game than Smith and Faulk are consistently able to provide.

There are several appealing veterans who may be available through trades or free agency, and a good running back should still be available at the bottom of the first-round of the draft -- I'm sure most players would be delighted to join the reigning Super Bowl champs.

This short passing thing won't cut it forever, though. The Pats will need a real run game and better downfield passing (not Brady's strength) if they're going to repeat next year. And if they do, I'll sing the praises of the New England dynasty.

The 2004 All-Loser Team

I don't have room to revisit my pre-season picks this week, but I won't deprive you of the second annual All-Loser Team, an all-star team comprised entirely of players whose teams missed the postseason.

QB Jon Kitna, CIN RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD FB Fred Beasley, SF WR Randy Moss, MIN WR Hines Ward, PIT TE Randy McMichael, MIA C Olin Kreutz, CHI G Alan Faneca, PIT G LeCharles Bentley, NO OT Willie Anderson, CIN OT Bryant McKinnie, MIN

DT Marcus Stroud, JAC DT Dan Wilkinson, DET DE Michael Strahan, NYG DE Jason Taylor, MIA OLB Julian Peterson, SF OLB Derrick Brooks, TB ILB Zach Thomas, MIA ILB Keith Brooking, ATL CB Patrick Surtain, MIA CB Ronde Barber, TB FS Brock Marion, MIA SS Tony Parrish, SF

K Shayne Graham, CIN P Shane Lechler, OAK KR Jerry Azumah, CHI

Honorable mentions: RB Deuce McAllister, NO; WR Chad Johnson, CIN; DE Adewale Ogunleye, MIA

Article courtesy of Sports Central.