Fantasy Baseball: On Deck -- NL West Hitting Preview (Part 3)

by Chris Wang Fantasyinfocentral.com

Welcome back to "On Deck" where we are taking a journey through the starting lineups seeing what to expect from a fantasy perspective in 2003. Today, we'll continue our look at the NL West. (To see Part 1, click here: NL West (Part 1). To see Part 2, click here: NL West (Part 2).)

During our season previews, we will be accompanying players with ratings as to where they belong in a typical twelve team 5X5 rotisserie league draft with 25 rounds. The breakdowns will be as follows...

******, Rounds 1-3 *****, Rounds 4-6 ****, Rounds 7-10 ***, Rounds 11-15 **, Rounds 16-20 *, Rounds 21-25

No stars will be for players who are likely to (and should, in my opinion) go undrafted

Colorado Rockies 2002: 73-89 Batting average: .274 (1st in NL) Runs scored: 778 (4th) Home runs: 152 (12th) RBI: 726 (4th) Stolen bases: 103 (5th)

Projected lineup: C: Charles Johnson (30) ** 1B: Todd Helton (4) ****** 2B: Brent Butler (26) 3B: Jose Hernandez (12) *** SS: Juan Uribe (23) * LF: Jay Payton (55) **/Gabe Kapler (93) CF: Preston Wilson (41) **** RF: Larry Walker (14) ******

Catcher Charles Johnson comes to the Rockies in the Mike Hampton deal and he hopes to resurrect his career in Coors. Johnson battled injuries last year to his thumb and back but his offensive decline began in mid-2001. In his last 450 at-bats (1.5 seasons), Johnson is hitting .220 with eight homers and 54 RBI.

On Deck: While many people remember his career best 2000 season (.304,31HR,91RBI), it is important to remember that he is a career .248 hitter with mediocre skills. Here are his second best seasons combined .259,19 HR,75 RBI, if he can put up those numbers he'll be a good fantasy catcher. He's worth a late round pick as insurance.

First baseman Todd Helton is a fantasy monster. From 2000-2001, Helton averaged .354 with 135 runs, 45 homers and 147 RBI. His numbers dipped last year to .329 with 107 runs, 30 homers and 109 RBI! This is a coup for the knowledgeable fantasy player in this year's draft because Helton will bounce back to his '00-'01 form. Last season, he battled a sore back for much of the season. To help alleviate the problem this year, Helton enlisted the services of a physical therapist to strengthen his back muscles in the offseason.

On Deck: Helton should be a first round pick and is a steal in the second round.

The Rockies hope that 2B Brent Butler puts up numbers similar to a Craig Counsell. Butler is a guy that will put the ball in play, which should benefit him playing in Coors. Like many Rockies, his road/home splits are quite shocking. Last season, he hit .308 with seven homers and 32 RBI at home; but only .201 with two homers and 10 RBI on the road.

On Deck: Butler really isn't worth consideration unless your regular second baseman gets hurt and you need a short-term replacement.

Shortstop Jose Hernandez received surprisingly little interest in the free agent market after the best year of his career and I expect him to be shifted to third base. Mr. Whiff had arguably the best offensive season for NL shortstops last season; however in fantasy terms, Hernandez ranked No. 13 on the FIC shortstop rankings basically due to the high stolen base totals of many of the other shortstops.

On Deck: Hernandez will likely start the season at third making him more versatile for your fantasy squad. While a huge offensive jump is unlikely, Hernandez could break the 30-homer mark this season.

After a solid rookie campaign in 2001 (.300,8 HR,53 RBI), SS Juan Uribe struggled with the bat in his sophomore season hitting only .240 with six homers and 49 RBI in twice the game that he played in 2001. He'll need to improve his plate discipline (120 Ks in 155 games) to take a step forward in his career. There's no need to draft Uribe. If he struggles, expect Hernandez to move to shortstop and for Chris Stynes to play third. Stynes joins his fourth team in four years. He struggled with the Cubs last year, as he didn't acclimate well to being more of a role player -- his batting average, on-base percentage and slugging all declined for the second straight year.

On Deck: Neither of these players warrants much thought.

If you know baseball, you know that OF Larry Walker, 36, is always an injury risk and thus you have to have a good backup on your bench at all times. But even with Walkers propensity to miss games (he played 136 games in 2002), Walker still puts up incredible numbers. He's probably past his days of double-digit steals but if he plays 130 games, he'll hit at least .320 with 30 homers and 100 RBI. Expect a stronger year for Walker as Rockies management is moving back to the strategy of offense winning games in Coors while moving away from the Hampton/Neagle pitching strategy, which clearly didn't work.

On Deck: 130 games of Walker are better than a lot of healthy outfielders. Just have a solid backup.

Outfielder Preston Wilson has got to be happy leaving Florida and moving to the thin Colorado air. He'll be a nice middle of the order compliment to Helton and Walker. After a 30-30 year in 2000, Wilson has battled injuries and has averaged 23 homers, 67 RBI and 20 steals over the past two seasons. The move to Colorado should boost Wilson back to the 30-homer (and possibly 40) realm, but he may see a dip in his steal production if he hits in front of either Walker or Helton. Definitely move Wilson up on your draft sheets. Last year, Wilson's power dipped due to a wrist injury.

On Deck: Don't get too aggressive, but a 30 homer, 100 RBI, 15 steal season should be easily attainable for the 28-year-old Wilson.

The final outfield spot will shared between Jay Payton and Gabe Kapler. All the Rockies outfielders are known to be injury risks so hopefully they don't all get injured at once. In college, Payton was considered a better hitter than Nomar, but two serious elbow injuries slowed Payton's progress to the majors and he's never fulfilled his potential as a hitter. His problem with the Mets, besides injuries, was his inability to get clutch hits and thus his RBI totals were hurt (in 2001, Payton hit just .184 with runners in scoring position). He thrived upon his arrival to Coors and he's really a player that could succeed in Colorado as he has a very level stroke and has gap power. Kapler is one season removed from a 17 homer, 23 steal season. However, last year was brutal for him as he hit just two homers in 315 at-bats -- his plate discipline dropped significantly.

On Deck: Left field will be a battle of unfulfilled talent. These guys will likely be good short-term free agent pickups during the season. Also in the mix will be Jack Cust, who hit .265 with 23 homers at Triple-A last season. While Cust is expected to be a good hitter in the majors, his attitude was called into question and his fielding ability is suspect.

San Diego Padres 2002: 66-96 Batting average: .253 (T-12th in NL) Runs scored: 662 (14th) Home runs: 136 (16th) RBI: 627 (14th) Stolen bases: 71 (T-14th)

Projected lineup: C: Mike Rivera (NR)/Wiki Gonzalez (NR) 1B: Ryan Klesko (9) ***** 2B: Mark Loretta (NR) 3B: Sean Burroughs (NR) * SS: Ramon Vazquez (33) LF: Phil Nevin (3B: 24, OF: 79) ***** CF: Mark Kotsay (47) *** RF: Bubba Trammell (89)

The Padres will likely platoon Mike Rivera and Wiki Gonzalez at catcher to begin the year. Gonzalez is a contact hitter with a little pop that hits lefties well -- .306 vs. lefties, .212 vs. righties over the last three years. Rivera has shown virtually no ability to hit major league pitching so far in his career (43 games), but he's still young for a catcher, 26, and had a great year at Double-A Erie in 2001 hitting .289 with 33 homers and 101 RBI.

On Deck: Neither of these players should be near your roster.

1B Ryan Klesko was one of the few bright spots for the Padres in 2002. While he put up solid numbers, his stolen base total dropped from 23 (in '00 and '01) to six in '02. But still, Klesko put up 29 homers and 95 RBI despite playing with virtually no supporting cast behind him. With a healthy Phil Nevin in the mix things should be a bit better for the Padres, but the rest of the starters are pretty suspect.

On Deck: Expect Klesko to put up pretty much the same numbers as in 2002.

To be honest, I really don't know much about 2B Mark Loretta, but when I looked at his numbers I expected much less. He's clearly a contact hitter that hits for a solid .293 career average. He hits for very little power but did drive in 67 runs in '99. He can play 2B, 3B and SS and will likely start at 2B for the Padres.

On Deck: Though his .791 OPS was actually good for a 2B, his fantasy value is virtually nil. Even his best season ('99) would put him below my fantasy radar.

The Padres remain so high on 3B Sean Burroughs that they tried to trade Phil Nevin in the offseason for Ken Griffey Jr. Burroughs was supposed to be a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2002 but he suffered though a shoulder injury for much of the year and hit only .221 for the first two months. After he rested the shoulder, he came back and hit .377 in 61 September at-bats. Burroughs lack of power has him better suited to be a second baseman, but after a brief try at Triple-A that doesn't appear likely.

On Deck: While Burroughs remains a promising young player, who may challenge for a batting title one day; he has minimal fantasy value because he hasn't developed much power. Third base is a power position and even if Burroughs hits .350, if he hits less than 10 homers, he won't stack up against the rest of the league.

Shortstop Ramon Vazquez was tabbed as the Padres starting shortstop heading into spring training last season, but lost his job to Devi Cruz. He played several positions last year and hit a respectable .274 and a solid .344 OBP. Vazquez will be the Padres starting shortstop this season and should put up decent numbers.

On Deck: Vazquez can't match any of the shortstops statistically in this era. While he'll be a good for the Padres getting on base in the real world, he doesn't have speed or power to stack up in the fantasy world.

After a tremendous 2001 (41 homers, 126 RBI), Phil Nevin struggled through a broken arm and a sprained elbow in 2002. Nevin was shifted from 3B to 1B to make room for Burroughs and this spring he is expected to be asked to move to left field, which he isn't happy about. You would think that the Padres would want their best player to be happy, but apparently they think more highly of Sean Burroughs.

On Deck: The Nevin situation is one to watch. One thing for certain is that you should try to snatch him up before your competition does. His injury-affected numbers will let him fall a few rounds this spring. He's a great hitter who'll hit .300 with 35 homers and 100 RBI.

Center fielder Mark Kotsay is still a relative unknown, but he puts up solid, yet unspectacular numbers. He's a line-drive gap hitter that uses the whole field to his advantage. At 27, he still could progress to better numbers, but for now he's consistent and can be counted on to hit .290, 80 runs, 15HR, 60 RBI, 10 steals.

On Deck: Kotsay will help you across the board and should be a mid to late round pick. As a positive, Kotsay has improved his numbers for each of the past three years.

After finally landing a starting job in 2001 and hitting 25 homers in the process, RF Bubba Trammell looked overmatched in 2002. He got off to a horrible start hitting only .200 for the first two months. He hit much better in the second half but he was played more sparingly -- he hit .271 with 10 homers and 30 RBI in 170 at-bats.

On Deck: Trammell isn't worth a roster spot. If he gets off to another bat start, Xavier Nady could be waiting in the wings. Nady is a promising, young power hitter that has struggled with injuries in the minors. Keep a watch on this during the spring.

Check back later in the week for Part 1 of the AL West preview...

Article courtesy of Fantasy Information Central.