Fantasy Baseball: On Deck - NL West Hitting Preview (Part II)

by Chris Wang Fantasyinfocentral.com

Welcome back to "On Deck" where we are taking a journey through the starting lineups seeing what to expect from a fantasy perspective in 2003. Today, we'll continue our look at the NL West. (To see Part 1, click here: NL West (Part 1).)

During our season previews, we will be accompanying players with ratings as to where they belong in a typical twelve team 5X5 rotisserie league draft with 25 rounds. The breakdowns will be as follows...

******, Rounds 1-3 *****, Rounds 4-6 ****, Rounds 7-10 ***, Rounds 11-15 **, Rounds 16-20 *, Rounds 21-25

No stars will be for players who are likely to (and should, in my opinion) go undrafted.

San Francisco Giants 2002: 95-66 Batting average: .267 (T-3rd in NL) Runs scored: 783 (3rd) Home runs: 198 (2nd) RBI: 751 (3rd) Stolen bases: 74 (13th)

Projected lineup: C: Benito Santiago (5) ** 1B: JT Snow (35)/Damon Minor (37) 2B: Ray Durham (3) ***** 3B: Edgardo Alfonzo (16) *** SS: Rich Aurilia (18) **** LF: Barry Bonds (2) ****** CF: Marquis Grissom (67) * RF: Jose Cruz Jr (62)

Last year, soon to be 38-year-old catcher Benito Santiago had his best offensive season since '96. You have to wonder if he can maintain his production because at last year's pace he's definitely worth a roster spot. If you're looking for evidence of a drop in production late in the season, you're not going to find it. Santiago's first and second half numbers are virtually identical and his August and September were above average months.

On Deck: Santiago is in great shape, but my guess is that he'll go undrafted in most drafts because of his age and the likelihood of a decline in his performance this season. Expect a drop in his numbers across the board. A .260 batting average with 10 homers and 50 RBI is a likely scenario.

The Giants first base picture is an interesting one. JT Snow has put together two consecutive terrible years, especially given how much talent there is at the first base position. Over the last two seasons, he's hit just .246 with 14 homers and 87 RBI - most first basemen can produce that in one season and then some. Damon Minor should get his shot at playing everyday despite producing mediocre numbers last season at the big league level.

On-Deck: JT Snow has no fantasy value. Minor is a player that you should keep an eye on, as his minor league numbers point to a hitter with good plate discipline and power. Last season, he hit only .237 but his 24 walks gave him a decent .333 OBP.

Second baseman Ray Durham crosses to the other side of the bay and gives the Giants a great replacement for Jeff Kent. Though Durham won't produce the same power, he gives the Giants a well-rounded top of the order threat. He finished last season as the No. 3-ranked second baseman fantasy wise. An added dimension to Durham's move is the possibility that Durham will move to the outfield as the Giants currently employ only Barry Bonds, Marquis Grissom and Marvin Bernard on the roster.

On Deck: Durham will easily put up .280 with 100 runs, 15 homers, 60 RBI and 25 steals. He's a great player at a thin position.

During the 2000 Subway Series, some suggested that 3B Edgardo Alfonzo was the best all-around player in New York; however, two weak seasons later and he's found his home at Pac Bell. Fonzie has battled back problems since his rookie season in 1995 and there's no doubt that he's an injury risk long term. It doesn't help that he doesn't seem to like to train hard as he showed up a bit heavy in 2001. That said, Fonzie appeared to turn the corner last season and finally looked healthy in the second half where he hit .313 with 12 homers and 31 RBI.

On Deck: It's not clear where Fonzie will hit in the Giants order, but he could get a boost batting in front of Bonds. If healthy, Fonzie should be good for .300 with 20 homers and 100 RBI. Move him up on draft day. Fonzie could also shift to second if Durham moves to the outfield.

With the loss of several key hitters this offseason, Giants fans can find some solace in the fact that SS Rich Aurilia should bounce back hard from a sub-par 2002. Last season, Aurilia had surgery during the season to remove bone chips from his right elbow. He came back earlier than expected and was a key to the Giants offense.

On Deck: Don't expect his 2001 season, but Aurilia should be a good pick, as he'll slip in the draft due to his 2002 numbers. He should hit .280 with 25 homers and 90 RBI. Move him up your sheets for draft day.

Sorry, but I can't control myself here as Neifi Perez has got to be the worst free agent signing of the year. The Giants gave him a two year $4.25 million contract! What are they insane? Virtually every at-bat he's given is wasted. "Neifi can hit for average (huh?), run well and play on either side of second base," Giants general manager Brian Sabean said. While I like a couple of Sabean's moves this offseason, this one makes me wonder if the general managers should be drug tested. Since leaving Coors, Perez has hit .238 with a .569 OPS.

On Deck: If you even consider Perez for you squad, you should call me so I can call the asylum for you.

The most feared hitter in baseball right now is obviously OF Barry Bonds; however, on the fantasy circuit he's not quite as valuable. His incredible number of walks is going to make his batting average count for less of your team average as he won't get as many at-bats as an Ichiro. But, still Bonds will put up huge numbers once again in 2003 and if your league counts OBP, SLG or OPS, then Bonds is an absolute fantasy monster.

On Deck: Have you seen a more devastating hitter than Bonds right now? Last season he walked 198 times while striking out only 47 times. His OBP was close to .600. Amazingly with 198 walks and 149 hits (46 homers), Bonds scored only 117 runs -- expect a better run total in 2003. While Bonds won't steal you 20-30 bases anymore, he's still a first round pick.

Of the moves the Giants made this season, Marquis Grissom's signing has me shaking my head. I will say that Grissom had a solid year in 2002, his walk year. He hit .277 (his highest average since '96) and his .510 SLG was the highest of his career! I'm sorry, but the soon to be 36-year-old is bound to snap back to his .250-15-60 days and now without the speed. Grissom does punish lefties, but the Giants may have him as their everyday center fielder.

On Deck: In NL-only leagues, Grissom provides some bench help for your club with some pop. While the Giants may not platoon him that doesn't mean you can't -- play him against lefties only.

After drawing little interest in the free agent market, Jose Cruz Jr. signed with the Giants to be their everyday right fielder. Last year, Cruz battled several injuries including a pulled rib cage muscle and an injured left ankle. Don't expect another 30-30 season from Cruz but he should return to 30-homer form this season. One weakness to Cruz's fantasy stats is that he has hit above .253 only once in his career.

On Deck: Cruz should benefit from batting behind Bonds this season and should easily drive in 100 runs. Definitely move him up on draft day.

Los Angeles Dodgers 2002: 92-70 Batting average: .264 (5th in NL) Runs scored: 713 (7th) Home runs: 155 (11th) RBI: 693 (7th) Stolen bases: 96 (6th)

Projected lineup: C: Paul Lo Duca (6) *** 1B: Fred McGriff (14) ** 2B: Joe Thurston (NR) 3B: Adrian Beltre (13) *** SS: Cesar Izturis (41)/Alex Cora (35) LF: Brian Jordan (53) ** CF: Dave Roberts (43) *** RF: Shawn Green (8) ******

Catcher Paul Lo Duca is a blue-collar, hard-nosed player, who is a fan favorite in LA. He has good strike zone judgement and is a line drive/gap hitter. While it's pretty clear that he won't replicate his 25-homer season of 2001, Lo Duca puts up solid numbers at the very thin catchers position.

On Deck: Expect slightly better numbers from him this season, as the or der should be stronger this season.

People didn't expect 1B Fred McGriff, 39, to continue to produce at this age, but he still maintains his consistency as he's hit 30 homers and driven in 100 runs for the last two seasons. He's a huge improvement over fan favorite Eric Karros and should help the Dodger offense push a few more runs across this season.

On Deck: McGriff's numbers are likely to drop-off slightly due to his age and his move to Dodger Stadium. He's only 22 homers from 500 and he should make that number as long as he stays healthy. The knock on McGriff is his low runs total, which hurts him in the fantasy world. He's a decent backup for your fantasy squad at a deep position.

Rookie 2B Joe Thurston has earned a reputation for his work ethic and love for the game, thus earning the nickname "Joey Ballgame." While he seems to have average skills all around (throwing arm, speed, bat), he has excelled at every level of the minor leagues. He's been compared to Mark Grudzielanek, who he is replacing; but I'm expecting better than that. Thurston was named Triple-A Player of the Year by Baseball America last season where he hit .334 with 106 runs, 12 homers, 55 RBI and 22 stolen bases. Dave Roberts and Thurston could give the Dodgers a great 1-2 punch at the top of the order this season. Don't expect too much from the rookie but he doesn't have big shoes to fill, as Grudzielanek was the least productive 2B in the NL last year.

On Deck: Thurston is a late round sleeper pick as he should be in the running for Rookie of the Year -- I'd consider .270 with 70 runs and 20 steals a success.

Last offseason, virtually every fantasy magazine had 3B Adrian Beltre as a potential breakout star; however, he looked lost for much of the first half hitting only .238 with seven homers and 29 RBI -- not nearly enough production from a guy that many experts predict will reach 30-30 one day. He turned it on for the second half and helped Shawn Green keep the offense afloat as he hit .281 with 14 homers and 46 RBI; however he wilted in September hitting only .214. Beltre will be 24-years-old this April and this will be his 5th year as starting third baseman for the Dodgers. While his potential is certainly there, his plate discipline has declined from two seasons ago.

On Deck: If he can be more selective with his pitches, Beltre will have the breakout season predicted from last year; but that's a big if. Beltre ranked #13 on the FIC third base ranking in 2002, so he should be a great sleeper pick with little risk in the later rounds of your draft.

The Dodger shortstop situation merits very little fantasy value, if any. Cesar Izturis got most of the at-bats at shortstop last season and was about as sure an out as any in the majors. He hit a measly .232 with a disgusting .556 OPS. A look into the numbers and it actually gets worse, yes worse! In 292 at-bats against righties, Izturis hit .195 with a .467 OPS! There was talk in midseason of Izturis batting right-handed permanently as his hitting from the left-side was a disaster. That led to SS Alex Cora, who had a career high batting average of .238 heading into 2002. After shortening his stroke in the offseason, he hit a solid .291 with 5 homers, 28 RBI and seven steals in 258 at-bats. Cora and Izturis should platoon this season; and Cora will also serve as insurance in case Joe Thurston struggles at second.

On Deck: Avoid Izturis like the plague. Cora will have some value in NL only leagues.

The Dodgers field one of the best outfields in the NL. Shawn Green has established himself as one of the elite sluggers in the game and does so with a quiet and humble approach. He carried the Dodger offense for much of 2002 and was probably the NL MVP in the first half hitting .280 with 26 homers and 68 RBI, including a four homer, 19 total base game.

On Deck: Green has one of the sweetest strokes in the game and the ball just jumps off his bat. He has a chance to better his numbers this year and you should expect his stolen base to climb back up to the double digits in 2003. He's a first or second round pick.

Brian Jordan had a typical season for himself as he battled an injured back and an injured left knee. But Jordan, a former All-Pro cornerback, plays baseball with a football mentality and plays injured if it's up to him. His injuries sapped his power for a good two months, but he led all-NL hitters with 30 RBI in September.

On Deck: If Jordan is healthy he can produce .280 with 25 homers and 100 RBI. He'll probably bat behind Green and should have a better year in 2003.

Many baseball analysts, including myself, questioned manager Jim Tracy's decision to start the year with 29-year-old Dave Roberts, who had a career average of .242 in 75 games, batting leadoff. After a slow start, Roberts proved his critics wrong and gave the Dodgers a solid top of the order threat --finishing with a .353 OBP and 3rd in the NL with 45 steals.

On Deck: Last year, he primarily platooned with Marquis Grissom; however with Grissom now with the Giants, Roberts should get the opportunity to play everyday (last year he went 10-25 against lefties with seven walks). Roberts is a great source of steals and should improve upon his overall numbers this season.

Tune in next time for part 3 of the NL West preview.

Article courtesy of Fantasy Information Central.