Explainer: President Benefits From Unpopular Opposition

With the Philippines teetering on the edge of its third revolution in 20 years, not to mention the 20-odd attempted revolts in the same period, it would be tempting to dismiss it as a banana republic; a country where democratic institutions have failed to take root since the toppling of the dictator Ferdinand Marcos in 1986.

There is some substance to this argument. President Gloria Arroyo finds herself in her current predicament because she stands accused of trying to rig the 2004 presidential election and then using sleight of hand to block three attempts to unseat her legally.

If the national election commission had become a truly independent body, Ms Arroyo would never have contacted a commissioner during the vote count to discuss her chances. She was caught on tape doing this, allegedly to ask him to increase her total, a claim she denies.

Congress has not been able to fully investigate the charges because Ms Arroyo and her supporters have used various technicalities to kill the inquiries. But the Philippine Congress is hardly a bastion of democracy, one of the three pillars of government - along with the executive and the judiciary - it is meant to be.

Parties have little meaning and political alliances, which often have a shelf life of months rather than years, are built on traditional tribal lines. This was demonstrated all too vividly at an anniversary march the government allowed on Friday, despite the state of emergency. Corazon Aquino - the heroine of 1986 who replaced Marcos as president and a key player in the 2001 revolution that toppled President Joseph Estrada - walked arm-in-arm with Mr. Estrada’s wife and Marcos-era figures. These once bitter foes stood united in common cause to unseat the latest unpopular ruler.

Looking down on them from her flat along the rally route was Imelda Marcos, the dictator’s widow who has returned to a normal life despite hundreds of outstanding lawsuits against her. Her children are active in politics.

The survival of the old oligarchy has helped Ms Arroyo survive because the opposition has no credible alternative candidate. For while the elite are continuing the same old games, most Filipinos are struggling to survive in an economy which has slumped. They have little time for the vicissitudes of their leaders’ fortunes.

Professor Randy David of the University of the Philippines says: "People are more educated, they now have higher expectations but the politicians have remained the same. I see it as a positive sign that people are no longer prepared to tolerate the oligarchy any more."