Hot Stove preview - AL East (Pt. 1)

By Peter Friberg Sports Central Columnist

With Spring Training now in session and the boys of summer awaking from their winter hibernation, it's time to start thinking baseball. In the first part of this series we'll take a look at the AL East.

Baltimore continues to struggle to find quality players willing to take Peter Angelos' money. This offseason, the Orioles acquired OF Marty Cordova (.301/.348/.506) from the Indians via free agency and traded for RHP Chris Brock (4.13 ERA in 32.2 innings with the Phillies) and CF Chris Singleton (.298/.331/431 - with the White Sox). Don't worry; you're not alone if you do not believe that those guys are impact players.

While Marty Cordova (his 20 HR in 409 AB would have led Baltimore) will certainly be a welcome addition to a team woefully short on power hitters, he is not a player who will single-handedly strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers.

The Orioles do have a few things to smile about. Sidney Ponson (4.94 in 138.1) should be able to pitch effectively all season, Scott Erickson (missed '01 with Tommy John surgery - 4.43 career ERA), and Pat Hentgen (3.47 in 62.1) should come back at some point, and several of their young guys look promising: RHP Jason Johnson (4.09 in 196.0), RHP Josh Towers (4.49 in 140.1) OF/DH Jay Gibbons (only .236/.301/.480 - but hit 15 HR in only 225 AB), and RF Chris Richards (.265/.335/.435). None of the aforementioned look spectacular, but each will be a solid contributor. Now, if they can just get a couple studs to build around ...

With the changes in Toronto, Baltimore could challenge for third in the East. And with Tampa sharing the division as home, it's unlikely this team will finish last. However, a hands-off approach from Peter Angelos and a GM who isn't afraid to tell him so, will come before the Birds fly to top of this division.

Boston is sort of an odd duck this year. Last year, many experts said that it would be their year; that 2001 would be the year that the Sox knocked the Yankees off their AL East perch. Of course, things don't always turn out like planned (do they ever?) and after injuries to Nomar Garciaparra (who appeared in only 21 games) and Pedro Martinez (who threw only 116.2 innings), the Sox imploded with a 31-43 second half including a 1-13 streak in August/September. With last year's bad finish and the Yankees' plethora of offseason moves, no one is giving Boston much of a chance.

So is there hope? Is there reason for optimism? In a word, yes. Why? Well, basically, because Nomar and Pedro are back (and reportedly healthy). And any team with Manny Ramirez (.306/.405/.609) in their lineup should scare opposing pitchers. But beyond that, GM Dan Duquette, for all his past misgivings, made some shrewd moves this offseason.

First baseman Tony Clark, despite only hitting 16 homers, did post respectable numbers last year (.287/.374/.481). Playing in one of the best hitting parks in AL, Clark should be able to improve on those numbers.

Outfielder Johnny Damon did not have a very good 2001 (.256/.324/.363), but like Clark, moving from a pitcher's park to a hitter's park will help. Furthermore, 2001 was not a typical year for Damon, look for him to rebound in '02.

Right-handed pitcher John Burkett may not impose the fear that Pedro does (does anyone?), but he is crafty and should be solid and serviceable. Remember, with Burkett moving into a hitter's park, there's no question his 3.04 ERA he posted in Atlanta will balloon. The question is, can he eat up innings that the bullpen had to shoulder last year and can he post a respectable (for Fenway) ERA (say sub-4.25)? The long-toss program Burkett started a few years ago has helped; I believe he'll be a solid addition to the Boston rotation.

Right-handed pitcher Dustin Hermanson walks too many (73) and strikes out too few (123 - in 192.1 innings) to be a top-flight pitcher. However, if he can post a sub-5.00 ERA (4.44 in 2001) and give the Sox 180+ innings, I think the Sox' coaching staff will be pleased.

Additional pickups, OF Ricky Henderson and others, look to be serviceable pieces who can help a team by filling holes rather than disrupting a clubhouse due to lack of playing time.

With Derek Lowe (3.64 in 91.2) moving from the bullpen to the starting rotation, there is the obvious question about potential success. But since he was a converted starter in the first place, the adjustment should be minor.

Ugueth Urbina (4.24 in 46.2) has rescinded trade demands and will anchor what should be a competent bullpen.

I'm not ready to go out on a limb and predict a first place finish for the Sox, but be surprised if they don't give the Yankees a run for their money. They should be a lock for the Wild Card (if you disagree, wait till you see what I have to say about the other divisions before you blow a gasket).

On to New York. I promise to be as unbiased as I can - but I just don't like the Bronx Bombers ... while I was rooting for the D'Backs in the World Series, I was kind of hoping the Yankees would win so Big George would try to keep some of the aging players around for one more go and sign them to ridicules contracts. And as much as I dislike the pinstripe bound Yanks, I love a bunch of the guys on this team ... Lord, help me ...

In all seriousness, this is a heck of team: they have average or better power at each position. Also, every member of their starting rotation would make any staff better (a higher compliment than it sounds); and their bullpen is solid with the best closer in baseball anchoring it.

So shall the Yankees start printing their World Series tickets now? No. I will say they have to be the favorite, but first let me nit-pick a bit. Other than Mike Mussina (3.28 ERA in 228.2 innings), their starters aren't great. I know a paragraph ago I just complimented their staff, now it sounds like I'm ripping it. Mike is a true "Ace." Roger Clemons (3.51 in 220.1) used to be. At 39, (he'll turn 40 in August) he will continue to decline, he was "very good," not "great" last year (Cy Young award aside). Andy Pettitte is a solid "No. 3" starter (3.99 in 200.2 - his best numbers in four years), but with his recent history, one has to be curious about what kind of year he'll have. And lastly, Sterling Hitchcock, David Wells, and Orlando Hernandez are all big questions marks.

So if father time finally catches up with Rodger, and if Andy digresses to earlier form, and if two of the three "questions" do not pan out, the Yankees might be in some trouble.

Of course, the '61 Yankees did pretty good without much pitching ... and with the firepower the '02 Yankees bring to the plate, they may emulate the '61 squad all the way to a World Series title.

Last year - I can't remember the game, the channel, or the announcers - but I was watching a Yankee game. Derek Jeter (.311/.377/.480) stepped to the plate to leadoff the game. The announcers praised Derek for all his accomplishments and abilities, but promptly said he probably should not be leading off. Derek responded by opening the game with an HR. The announcers admittedly ate crow.

It looks as if Derek, by default, will be the leadoff hitter for the Yankees all season in '02. His awareness of what his team needs him to do is uncanny. Look for Derek to improve his average and on-base numbers at the expense of some homeruns (he hit 21 in '01).

Okay, this is what all the Yankees fans have been waiting for. Jason Giambi (.342/.477/.660) should win the AL MVP in '02. His easy, yet powerful pull-stroke should allow him to post monster numbers (50+ HR) in a park that favors lefty hitters who can pull the ball. Furthermore, with Derek leading off, and Bernie Williams (.307/.395/.522) batting in front of him, Jason could knock in 150+ RBI.

The Yankees could lose the AL East crown to the Sox, but if you're a betting man (or woman), don't make that bet.

Toronto J.P. Ricciardi takes over as GM of Toronto. So now, on top of Billy Beane's pesky A's the Yankees annually face in the playoffs, AL East is now the home to Beane's protege.

It's no secret that the Blue Jays have shed payroll this offseason. And it's no secret that they intend to shed more between now and the end of the season. What may be surprising, is that will be probably be better despite the payroll shedding ...

Going into the season, the Jays have four everyday caliber outfielders: Jose Cruz (.274/.326/.530), Raul Mondesi (.252/.342/.453), Shannon Stewart (.316/.371/.463), and Vernon Wells (.312/.350/.427 - in 103 plate appearances). Wells is a rookie this year, but won't hurt for playing time in the Junior circuit. With the DH rule, the Jays will rotate their outfielders until they can find a taker for Mondesi's contract.

The sooner they can find a taker for Mondesi's contract, the better. Despite the four previously mentioned outfielders, the Blue Jays position of strength is catcher. Darrin Fletcher is an established Major League catcher. Which is fine and dandy, but he can't hit (.226/.274/.353).

Fortunately, the Jays have stud hitter waiting to take his place ... no, make that two studs. One is a better hitter, and the other is a better catcher. So what they Jays would really like to do, is let Josh Phelps (.292 with 27 HR in AA) play DH, spot-catch, and give Carlos Delgado (.279/.408/.540) a few days off at 1B while Jason Werth would be the full-time catcher. Werth is no slouch with the bat, either, hitting .271 with 20 between A and AA. Most likely, Werth will begin the season in the minors, while Phelps will supplant Fletcher as the everyday catcher. If the Jays do trade Raul at some point, look for them bring up Werth.

The Jays will also be starting a couple young faces on the left side of the infield. Felipe Lopez, who came up at the end of last season, will be a fixture at short. While he may never challenge A-Rod as the best in the business, he may soon be thought of in the same company as a couple other shortstops in the AL East.

Eric Hinske will man the hot corner for the Jays. A pickup from the A's farm system, Eric hit .271 with 25 HR and .373 OBP in AAA last year.

The pitching side of the equation is a bit more complicated. The Jays have Roy Halladay (3.04 in 105.1), Chris Carpenter (4.09 in 215.2), Luke Prokopek (4.88 in 138.1 with the Dodgers), Esteban Loaiza (5.02 in 190.0), and Mike Sirotka (who missed '01 with an injury and surgery, but was 3.79 in 197.0 with the White Sox in '00). And should any of the above falter, the Jays got 11 starts from Brandon Lyon last year (4.29 in 63.0). All six will get starts but Loaiza, Lyon, and Prokopek do not look to be better than 4th or 5th starter quality. The Jays need to significantly upgrade their pitching staff if they hope to climb Mt. Bronx.

The Jays won't challenge for a wild card in '01. But by giving talented youngsters a chance to play and clearing salary room, the Jays will be in a position to land top-of-the-line free agents and will begin to challenge for a playoff bid as early as '02.

Also, look for J.P. Ricciardi to rapidly improve the Jays' minor league teams.

Tampa Bay will once again be cannon fodder for the Red Sox and the Yankees as they attempt to climb to mediocrity. This team seems to have no direction, no path, no hope that fans can point to and say, "See, we're going to be okay." If it weren't for that annoying 26-year lease at Tropicana Field, Bud may have considered contracting this team. Of course, that would have taken Bud swallowing his pride and admitting expanding to Tampa was a bad idea. Yeah, that's going to happen ...

I'm sitting here at my computer watching the cursor blink trying to think what I can talk about, what I can point to, if I can give you anything definitive to look for in '02. And other than predicting another 90-100 loss season, I cannot.

In fact, one good thing I could say, is that like the Blue Jays, the young guys will get an opportunity to play. But then again, if you look at Hal McRae's career as a manager, he isn't known for preaching patience in hitters (in fact, he's known for the opposite) and he does not have a reputation for helping young pitchers develop into quality big-leaguers (again, he's knows for the opposite). I know what I can say that's positive for D'Ray fans - Larry Dierker is still available.

The one good thing I can really point to about the D'Rays, is that have rid themselves of most of the bad contracts they signed prior to the 2000 season. Greg Vaughn is still around, as is Vinny Castilla's contract they're still paying. But this is still good. For a team that has no hope of winning, they need to do everything with the intent of getting to where they can win. Not having large contracts wrapped up in bad players gives them more flexibility. Now if they can just sign a quality General Manager to be this team's rudder, this ship does have the opportunity to be righted before it sinks completely.

Article courtesy of Sports Central.