Gearing up for March Madness

As we approach the end of February, we are only a few weeks away from the most exciting time in college sports, the NCAA Tournament.

Sports enthusiasts are passing the time since the Super Bowl by watching other, more mundane sporting events, such as last weekend's Daytona 500, or using this time to perform much needed tasks around the house the spouse has been begging them to do since the advent of football season in August.

I personally use this time to soak up as much basketball as I can to become prepared for the annual office/school/friends tournament pool. I figure the more I watch, the more apt to pick a first-round shocker or a dark horse Final Four team.

The funny thing is usually it doesn't matter what strategy you have when the games are actually played. Unless for example, you had Kent State, Indiana or Missouri making their improbable runs through the tournament in 2002.

Most years you end up in the "also ran" category with the person who knows little or nothing about basketball and picks teams because they have cool colors or they are a higher seed, etc. Anybody can win.

The last three years in my annual school pool, my girlfriend has finished 1st, 2nd and 2nd, respectively. Of course, I did help her with some of the picks, but you'll never hear that from her.

So how do you stay in the hunt in your respective pool? I will try to give you a historical and personal perspective into being the envy of your office buddies or classmates alike.

The Numbers

Since 1985, when the NCAA expanded the field to 64, 13 times a No. 1 seed has won it all, the 13th being Maryland last year. A breakdown:

Seed Times Won

1 13

2 2

3 1

4 1

6 1

8 1

The No. 8 seed was the magical Villanova team led by Rollie Massimino, who defeated a seemingly unstoppable Georgetown team in the finals.

Only two teams have ended the season ranked No. 1 in the polls and went on to win the title, these were the 1992 Duke and 1995 UCLA teams.

A seed analysis of the 72 teams to advance to the final four since 1985:

Seed Final Fours

1 32

2 15

3 8

4 7

5 3

6 3

8 3

11 1 (LSU, 1986)

It is pretty safe to say that a No. 1 seed (at least one) is a lock to make the Final Four. Actually, every year since 1985, a No. 1 seed has advanced to the final four.

No. 12 Seed

Ah, the mystical No. 12 seed. No other seed in the tournament's history has been more interesting.

Since 1985, 22 teams seeded No. 12 have won first round games with 10 of these advancing to the Sweet 16, and one to the Elite 8 (Missouri, 2002). Only two times has a No. 12 not advanced past the first round (1988, 2000).

Last year's tournament saw a record three No. 12's advance (Missouri, Tulsa, and Creighton) with Missouri coming within a game of making it to the Final Four.

Lately, a No. 12 advancing has become commonplace, as five out of the last 12 years have seen two or more advance past the first round.

Underdogs No More?

In the last six years there has been an abnormal amount of double-digit seeds advancing to the Elite 8, five to be exact. The five:

Year Team Seed

1997 Providence 10

1999 Gonzaga 10

2001 Temple 11

2002 Kent State 10

2002 Missouri 12

Expect this unusual trend to continue due to the overall parity within the NCAA.

This is where you can rack up points in your pool.

The majority will have a high seed, such as Kent State, losing in the first or second round. So, the longer you have the underdog advancing, the more points you will get, while the average player gets nothing because their "can't lose" team is gone.

With this being said, it is also good to play multiple brackets, especially if you just don't have the heart to pick an underdog or two. I usually have three brackets, a low, medium and high risk. Upsets

Some teams throughout the history of the NCAA Tournament have been upset-prone, while there are other teamed who like to dish out the occasional upset.

Five times between 1994-2001, Arizona has lost to a 14th-, 15th-, 12th-, 13th- and a eighth-ranked team, respectively, all while being a No. 5 seed or higher.

Florida is currently on a three-year run losing to an 11th-, 12th- and 10th-seed team since their title loss to Michigan State in 2000.

Gonzaga and Creighton have each beaten teams seeded higher then them three times since 1985, with Gonzaga making an amazing three consecutive Sweet 16's from 1999 to 2001. Assuming Gonzaga can win the West Coast Conference, watch for both these teams come March.

"Home" Teams

The NCAA decided to continue its ill-conceived method of placing lower-seeded teams close to home no matter what region they may end up in, suggesting more fan base and in turn more revenue.

This thinking last year had Pittsburgh playing in the Steel City, Texas playing in Dallas, Illinois in Chicago, and the eventual national champ Maryland in D.C. The combined record of these teams in the first two rounds: 8-0.

In 2003, watch out if Kelvin Sampson and his Oklahoma team end up playing minutes away from campus in Oklahoma City.

Purdue or possibly Indiana could end up playing in Indy, Florida could be close to home in Tampa, or if Tennessee continues their hot streak, they could be playing the first two rounds in Nashville.

Final Four Predictions

I think Kentucky and Texas have excellent shots at making it to the Final Four because UK boasts a top of the line defense and Texas has T.J. Ford along with a strong supporting cast.

Of course, there are plenty of other teams who have a legitimate shot, most namely: Louisville, Notre Dame, Kansas, Arizona and Oklahoma.

However, this may be the first year when a mid-major makes it all the way to the title, depending on the tournament structure.

Creighton, for example, who was ranked as high as No. 13 earlier this season, could make some serious noise. Also, an Atlantic 10 team, such as Dayton or Xavier, who are both extremely talented, could also make a run.