Gambling on a feast of cricket

There are a number of reasons to look forward to next month's cricket World Cup. First, we may be approaching a high point for the one-day game. Nearly every team (including England if Marcus Trescothick or Andrew Flintoff return to form) has a batsman capable of marmalising the opposition and Australia, India and Pakistan have entire batting orders comprised of players who can pull off this feat. The pitches promise to be benign and it may well be the finest batting jamboree ever staged.

Second, there is the politics. Pat Murphy isn't going to Zimbabwe; Aggers is going; but as yet no word from Bloers. Perhaps he is still weighing up the security issues. Perhaps he hasn't been invited.

Third, there is the gambling. Fifty-four games spread over six weeks with each and every one providing a multi tude of betting opportunities. Cricket and gambling are perfectly matched and the timing of the competition couldn't be more congenially timed for office life. Surprise your boss by arriving early, whack on the computer, call up the Cricinfo scorebox, stare at the screen for eight or nine hours, go for a well-earned pint, and still be home early.

All that is needed now is some winners. I am not so unself-aware that I would lumber you so near the start of an article with my own tips and fancies. Instead, I contacted Ed Chamberlin who was Ladbrokes' cricket odds compiler at the last World Cup and can be seen on Sky presenting The Full SP alongside Jeff Stelling. Anyone who works with Jeff is OK with me, except, perhaps, for Rodney Marsh.

At the last World Cup, Chamberlin backed 'Herschelle Gibbs, then pretty much unknown, to be top run-scorer for the tournament at 80-1 or 100-1. He finished fifth or sixth.

His tips for this year's event are as follows:

One - 'West Indies on the spread-betting tournament indices. I think they will do better than expected and can't believe they are longer odds (20-1) than Sri Lanka and England. Any side who goes to India and wins must have a chance. Chris Gayle and Wavell Hinds are coming good, they have a new breed of pacemen, Corey Collymore and Pedro Collins, and Vasbert Drakes is coming back with a bang.

'Most of important of all they are in Pool B and are almost guaranteed to make the Super Six stage. They are certainly a better bet than New Zealand who have been overhyped considering they haven't won a one-day game in South Africa in the last 10 years.'

Two - 'Drakes to be top wicket-taker (50-1 with the Tote). This is a huge price. He is opening the bowling now, was top wicket-taker against India and took 12 wickets in three matches against Bangladesh. What's more, he plays his domestic cricket in South Africa for Border and will know the pitches inside out. A great each-way bet.'

Three - 'Gibbs to be top runscorer (14-1). I'm a massive Yousuf Youhana (33-1) fan but I don't trust Pakistan and I don't trust Pool A. The key to winning this is to cash in against the small fries and, for me, Gibbs is the best flat-track bully in cricket. His foot movement is minimal, he just stands and delivers. I'm hoping he'll get the money back that I lent the bookies in 1999.'

Not only a nice use of 'lent' - 'Where's the housekeeping?' 'I lent it to William Hill' 'Him again. How much does he owe us now?' - but also a fine treble (14,000-1 if conducted with a cashier who doesn't realise Drakes plays for the West Indies) and one given an extra scintilla of credence by the fact that in a re-enactment of the tournament on a PlayStation the West Indies beat Pakistan in the final by six runs. When expert and machine agree....

Only a fool would differ. But so be it.

One - England (20-1) to do better than expected. Usually I would advise betting against England but these are strange times. The FTSE has bottomed out and the national mood is cagey. People have yet to be convinced England can win a war against Iraq let alone a cricket match against Namibia. Their odds are longer than they should be.

Two - Flintoff to be top England runscorer (33-1). England may employ him as pinch-hitter and (admittedly somewhat contrary to my advice above) it may not take much pinching for him to come out on top.

Three - Pakistan to lose to Zimbabwe in the last game in Pool A. Pakistan are likely to have qualified and what better way to show their appreciation to their co-hosts than by losing a meaningless game.

The combined odds on this treble (assuming you can hook up with a mug on the net who will back Pakistan at 20-1 on) are 13,200-1 which is similar to the Chamberlin treble. Let battle commence.