Fantasy Baseball: The Hook -- AL Central Breakdown (Part 3) - Royals/Twins

By James Meyerriecks FantasyInfoCentral.com Cardinals Correspondent

Spring Training is under way and baseball fans are getting set for another great season. In the next few weeks, we'll preview the pitching staffs for the 2003 MLB season. Today, we'll conclude our look at the American League Central with an in-depth look at the staffs of the Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins.

For previous division previews, click the following links:

* AL East Part 1 - Division overview/Baltimore Orioles * AL East Part 2 - Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees * AL East Part 3 - Tampa Bay Devil Rays/Toronto Blue Jays * NL East Part 1 - Division overview/Atlanta Braves * NL East Part 2 - Florida Marlins/Montreal Expos * NL East Part 3 - New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies * AL Central Part 1 - Division overview/Chicago White Sox * AL Central Part 2 - Cleveland Indians/Detroit Tigers

During our season previews, we will be accompanying players with ratings as to where they belong in a typical twelve team 5X5 rotisserie league draft with 25 rounds. The breakdowns will be as follows...

******, Rounds 1-3 *****, Rounds 4-6 ****, Rounds 7-10 ***, Rounds 11-15 **, Rounds 16-20 *, Rounds 21-25

No stars will be for players who are likely to (and should, in my opinion) go undrafted

Much like the Tigers, the Royals seem to be in a perpetual rebuilding mode. Gone from the 2002 rotation are the club's two winningest starters, Paul Byrd and Jeff Suppan. They've been replaced by the latest group of youngsters, including Runelvys Hernandez and Jeremy Affeldt, who will likely make a name for themselves in Kansas City before moving on to greener (literally) pastures when they're eligible for free agency.

The Twins, on the other hand, have built their team around a staff that looks like it will challenge for its second consecutive division title and third consecutive winning season. Although there really isn't a single dominant starter in the bunch, the Twins staff runs six deep with quality starters who would be in the top three on just about any staff in the league. Joe Mays and Eric Milton remain a bit more intriguing than the rest, but few fantasy owners would go wrong if they drafted Kyle Lohse, Brad Radke, Rick Reed, or Johan Santana.

Kansas City Royals

Projected Rotation

Runelvys Hernandez ** Jeremy Affeldt * Miguel Ascensio * James Baldwin Shawn Sedlacek *

Closer(s)

Mike MacDougal ** Jason Grimsley *

Starters

Hernandez is the only guy to get excited out in this bunch. Though he'll turn just 25 a month into the season, Runelvys will likely break camp as the team's ace. Hernandez has dominated minor league hitting and was very effective in a brief stint with the Royals last year. He managed to go 4-4 with a decent 4.36 ERA in a hitter's park on a pretty bad baseball team, and could be in line for a solid ten win season as the ace.

The Hook: If you're itching for a Royals starter, Hernandez should be the guy. He's going to be a good one in the next few years, so bump him up in keeper leagues.

Affeldt was solid when he was healthy in his rookie 2002 campaign. He battled blisters all last season, but isn't to be confused with fellow rookie blister sufferer Josh Beckett. He showed good poise on the hill, and has a solid fastball that he uses to set hitters up for his twelve-to-six hook. Affeldt could develop into a good starter in time, but would be in the high minors for another year or two in most systems.

The Hook: Affeldt really isn't that bad a gamble late. Expect him to improve his win total a bit as a starter, but don't bank on more than seven or eight W's.

Ascensio was solid last season, considering that he had to pitch on the major league roster the entire year. A Rule V draftee from the Phillies, Ascensio won himself a spot in the rotation with a strong showing in May. He's still only 22, and should develop into a decent starter in time, but he's not ready to make a fantasy impact yet. His ERA didn't drop below five after his second appearance last season, and he had a disgusting 58-64 strikeout to walk ratio.

The Hook: Until he improves his command, he's not worth a shot, even in deep leagues.

James Baldwin will likely win the NO. 4 spot just so that the Royals can claim that they have a starter who's over 25 and has more than 100 innings of experience in the majors. He shouldn't really be over the hill, either, at just 31. That said, he hasn't really been effective since the first half of 2000. If he's lucky, Baldwin will strike out 100 batters with an ERA around five and a mediocre WHIP. He'll be lucky to win more than six or seven games with the Royals, and isn't worth your time unless you're in a deep AL-Only league.

The Hook: He'll probably go late because of name recognition and the fact that he should win a starting job. Make sure it's someone else taking the chance on him.

Shawn Sedlacek thrives on deception and control, and did well early on in 2002. He did, however, finish horribly, allowing 46 runs (45 earned) in his last 40 innings. If you need another reason to avoid him, his strikeout to walk (52-36) ratio was horrible in 84 innings.

The Hook: Run.... Fast.

Closers

With the departure of Roberto Hernandez to greener pastures (Atlanta, where he won't close, but could be part of a winning effort) the closer's job will be wide open heading into Spring. Mike MacDougal is the clear favorite, as he throws in the high-90's and has three decent pitches. With just nine games and twenty-four innings under his belt at the major league level, he should be expected to struggle early on. He may have trouble adjusting to the role, as he's primarily been a starter in the minors.

The Hook: Last year, when I doubled as our Royals correspondent, MacDougal was referred to as the top starting pitching prospect in the Royals organization by a number of sources, so he's got the stuff to be dominant. Regardless, this team won't give him many chances, and he won't find the adjustment easy. He's probably worth a look late, but that's about it.

Jason Grimsley is making a living as an on-again, off-again pitcher. In 1999 and 2001, he was flat-out dominant as a setup man, but he struggled in 2000 and was no better than average last season. As the most experienced member of the Royals bullpen, he could be called upon often in a bullpen-by-committee, and is due to turn in one of his "on" years.

The Hook: Grimsley's a career middle-man who could close because of the lack of a better option. If MacDougal totally blows up, expect him to take over. Either way, he won't hurt your secondary numbers much and should be solid in leagues with holds.

Minnesota Twins

Projected Rotation

Brad Radke *** Eric Milton *** Joe Mays *** Rick Reed *** Kyle Lohse **

Closer

Eddie Guardado ****

Sleepers

Johan Santana ** J.C. Romero **

Starters

Radke struggled with a groin injury that put him on the disabled list for the first two times in his career last season, and never really looked as effective as he has in years past. He should be raring' and ready to go this year, and should post his typical 12-15 wins with a low-four ERA and 130 strikeouts.

The Hook: He's nobody you should overspend for, but he's solid, and should go in the early teens.

Big things have been expected out of Eric Milton for about three years now, but he refuses to emerge with a season that's better than what's expected of a #3 fantasy starter. Although he should be good for another 15 wins or so in 2003, the long-ball gives him nightmares. If he can hone that problem, he could finally see his ERA drop below four, but don't bet on it.

The Hook: Milton is still only 27 and should just be hitting his prime, so he could finally break through and become the ace he was expected to be. A more realistic guess is that he'll remain a decent No. 3 in fantasy leagues, and shouldn't go any higher than the tenth round.

For the second time in three years, Joe Mays struggled with elbow problems last season. He never looked anything like the pitcher who went 17-13 and was among the league leaders in ERA in 2001, but did have the same surgery that he had after the 2000 season. The surgery didn't hamper him much the first time, so it should be interesting to see how he bounces back this time. If he regains his confidence, he could be in line for a great year.

The Hook: Taking any pitcher coming off of surgery usually knocks them down a notch or two. After an off-year and the surgery, Mays shouldn't go much higher than the twelfth round in most standard drafts.

Rick Reed brings out that old, familiar word again: deception. Reed doesn't throw very hard, but uses great poise, smarts, and a model work ethic to succeed. A former replacement player, Reed won over ten games for the fifth time last season. Despite the fact that he's aging, Reed looked as good as ever last season in going 15-7 with a 3.78 ERA.

The Hook: Reed should continue to be effective this season, and could be sitting on another 15 win season with the Twins great offense and defense behind him. He usually slips under the radar and fits in somewhere in the early-teens.

Kyle Lohse enjoyed a breakout second half that saw him go 5-3 with a 3.04 ERA in just over 80 innings. Just 24, he should continue to build on his second half last season as he develops confidence in his ability to get major league hitters out. Lohse doesn't have a great fastball, but has a tremendous array of breaking balls, and could eventually provide a decent bonus in strikeout leagues.

The Hook: Lohse is worth a shot anywhere after the thirteenth or fourteenth round, but will probably be overlooked as the No. 5 starter on a veteran staff. Two or three years down the road, don't be shocked if he develops into a quality fantasy No. 2.

Closer

"Everyday" Eddie Guardado doesn't have dominant stuff, but he used his excellent control and solid slew of breaking pitches to dominate hitters in 2002 anyway. Prior to the 2002 season, he was one of the league's better setup men for five years, and had little trouble as he switched his role to an end-game situation. Look for pretty much a repeat of 2002, with a slight rise in his ERA.

The Hook: Guardado should go towards the end of the first closer run, and may save more than 40 games again this season.

Sleepers

Johan Santana will start the season in the 'pen, but will be the first man in if a starter will miss time due to injury. Santana was vicious on hitters last season, and actually led the Twins in strikeouts despite being a reliever/spot starter who only pitched 108 innings. His 2.99 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and eight wins were huge to whichever fantasy owner in your league grabbed him to pitch out of the bullpen. Santana will turn 24 early in Spring Training, and has a tremendous future.

J.C. Romero would be the most likely candidate to replace Guardado in the event of a trade or injury, and notched nine wins to go along with an ERA under two last season. He's big in holds leagues, and should be able to pick up enough garbage wins to help out in leagues without them if he can build on last season.

Be sure to check back Wednesday when we continue our look at the pitching staffs across the league with the staffs of the National League Central!

Do you have any questions or comments about the column or the upcoming Major League Baseball Season? Please e-mail me at royalcards@fantasyinfocentral.com.

Article courtesy of Fantasy Information Central.