Teetering on the brink

By David Martin Sports Central Columnist

At this time of year in college basketball, it's time to measure where the team is headed, and how the next two weeks can affect one's postseason plans. Several dozen teams, especially marginal teams in larger or even mid-major conferences, are in a position to be bubble tournament teams. Those bubble teams, though, have to do everything down the stretch just to avoid NIT invitations, or missing out on the postseason altogether.

When filling the 65 slots of the NCAA tournament, realize that there are 31 conferences that will be represented in the tourney. Each conference sends its champion, whether that champion is determined by a conference tournament in the first week of March, or, in the case of the Ivy League, by regular season conference performance. That leaves 34 "at-large" bids. Because teams never know at this juncture what will happen in the conference tournaments, the absolute importance for teams to work extremely hard to produce over the next two weeks are paramount.

There are generally considered to be six power conferences, just as in college football: Big 10, Big East, Big 12, SEC, ACC, and the Pac-10. I would argue at least one more power conference exists in college basketball: Conference USA. Recent representation in the tournament has been strong, and not always from the same teams. While Cincinnati has been atop the C-USA for some time, teams like Marquette are ritually tough, Louisville sports, by surprise to most, one of the nation's top teams (Wednesday's loss to St. Louis notwithstanding), a strong Memphis squad, and, while quiet this year, a consistently decent (formerly very good) team in DePaul.

So, from seven conferences, give or take no more then four teams from two or three mid-major conferences, 34 other teams must be selected to play for all the marbles. It is for the combined 79 teams of these seven conferences that each game is basketball life or death over the next two weeks. I will review the three biggest of the seven power conferences: SEC, ACC, and Big 12.

SEC

Kentucky and Florida are obvious cinches for the tournament, nearly regardless of their performances over the remainder of February. Georgia is a strong pick, with an 8-3 out-of-conference record against the toughest-ranked schedule in the nation. Tennessee (13-6)and Auburn (17-5) appear to be in, while Mississippi State can't have more league losses. The Bulldogs actually have two potentially huge matchups with Auburn down the stretch, and it seems fair to suggest a sweep of that series wins a bid to the tournament, unless they lose their other games. The Bulldogs also have a game at Rupp Arena left on the schedule. A win there almost guarantees a trip, again barring complete failure in the remainder of the schedule.

ACC

Wake Forest and Duke are perennial locks for the tournament. The conference looks otherwise a touchdown, overall. Looks and records can be deceiving. On the face of it, Maryland, Virginia, N.C. State, and even Georgia Tech (all with six losses or more) appear to be crucial bubble teams. However, none of these teams have lost more out-of-conference games than conference games. The ACC is a clear-cut case of a conference beating up on itself. Wake Forest leads the conference with only two conference losses.

In the average year, at this point, Duke, Wake, or Maryland are counting down sweeping or nearly sweeping the league. Not so this year. Maryland helped itself Wednesday by winning a must-win game over Florida State, but with road trips remaining to Duke and N.C. State, they must play well to be guaranteed a spot. Virginia needs to win games over the next couple weeks to have a chance, something they've failed to do the past two seasons.

Big 12

Oklahoma State has been a surprise in the Big 12 this year, having played its way into the tournament already. Only the most calamitous of collapses could prevent their attendance. Kansas, while not playing well over the last month, is still one of the nation's premier teams. Oklahoma and Texas are near locks, as well. Missouri hold the cards in their hands, and merely needs to play well down the stretch. Texas Tech, Colorado, and even Texas A&M and Iowa State are seeking bubble positions.

While not all eight teams would make the tournament, they each could steal position by taking games from any of the top four teams in the league. Each of the lower four mentioned above face an interesting dilemma, however. While great showings over the coming weeks will raise their stocks and records, each of them have .500 or below conference records.

Article courtesy of Sports Central.