Horse Racing: Silver Birch the One to End Nicholls' National Hoodoo

Silver Birch, at 16-1, looks the pick of the ante-post prices for the John Smith’s Grand National following the publication of the weights yesterday. One of six entries from the Paul Nicholls stable, all of which figure in the top 40 in the weights, last season’s Coral Welsh National winner has had Aintree on April 8 as his sole aim all season.

Nicholls, surely heading for his first trainers’ title, has so far sent out 26 National runners without success. But he looked distinctly unlucky with Ad Hoc, who was going like a winner when brought down four out in 2002, and last year Royal Auclair ran his heart out to finish second behind Hedgehunter when carrying 11st10lbs.

Royal Auclair’s prospects of turning the tables with just a 9lbs pull for 14 lengths are not obvious. He also faces a stiff task conceding a stone to stable companion Silver Birch, who has been given the classic Aintree preparation - a run over hurdles to protect his handicap mark before publication of the weights.

Silver Birch finished upsides Clan Royal, whose connections have adopted a similar approach, in a handicap hurdle at Warwick last month, which was his first outing since winning the 2004 Welsh National. The nine-year-old had previously jumped the big Aintree fences with aplomb when successful in the 3m3f Becher Chase.

Ante-post favorite for last season’s National after his Chepstow win, Silver Birch did not run again owing to a leg injury. But he has been given plenty of time to recover, and shaped well at Warwick. Provided he is fine after his return to chasing - probably at Wincanton on Saturday - Silver Birch will be ideally placed for this.

Fast ground would be a negative for Silver Birch, but that is unlikely in these days of extensive watering to provide "safe" ground at the big jumps meetings. The last three National winners have clocked times of over 9m20secs, indicating softish ground, when on two occasions the going forecast was good, and a far cry from 1990 when Mr Frisk clocked a record 8m47secs on genuinely fast going.

Tempting though it is to go for a really big-priced ante-post wager, the National is not a race for long-shots any more. Of the last 15 winners, 12 have come from the first eight in the betting. Clan Royal, cut to 6-1 by Hill’s yesterday, is a solid favorite given his Aintree record but he will probably start around that price.

Sir Rembrandt, placed in the last two Cheltenham Gold Cups, is arguably the pick of the weights with 10st13lbs - he finished ahead of Royal Auclair at levels when they were third and fourth behind Kicking King at the Festival last season.

However, Sir Rembrandt’s tendency to be off the bridle and get behind in the early part of his races suggests he is not the ideal type for Aintree, where in recent years it has paid to be up with the pace. He goes for the Gold Cup again and a hard race there could leave its mark.

Other early eye-catchers, though, are Lord Of Illusion and Haut De Gamme. The former, with his bold jumping and front-running tactics, is reminiscent of the 1997 Grand National winner, Lord Gyllene. Tom George’s nine-year-old has had the benefit of a light preparation and looked back to form when second behind Joaaci at Cheltenham last month with another display of accurate jumping.

Haut De Gamme, who is proven over the Aintree fences, is another who has been biding his time over hurdles until the publication of the weights. "He has plenty of cross-country experience in France and is the ideal type for the race," said his trainer, Ferdy Murphy, yesterday. "He’ll run at Uttoxeter on Saturday and then go straight to Aintree," he added.