Gordon Brown Can Only Hint at the Direction He'll Take

The ID-cards vote passed: however angry Labour MPs are at this succession of pointless provocations inflicted on them, there is sensible a limit to how much damage they will inflict on themselves. Plenty of them have much to fear in their own constituencies in this low season for Labour.

Those who did spend a freezing wet weekend in Blackpool found the spring conference pretty dismal and dispiriting. It was planned as a rip-roaring celebration of Labour’s glorious centenary, but few people came; there were few MPs, a smattering of ministers drafted in, and the press room was bare. Many constituency parties sent no delegates.

The frail state of the grassroots was whispered often in the Winter Gardens. Hazel Blears and John Prescott, trying to bounce the party into a semblance of life with defibrillator jolts of demented optimism, rashly opined that parties which wither at the roots will die at the top. With most big cities lost and a massacre of remaining councils expected at the May elections, some constituency parties that have recently lost their MP, their council and most councilors are struggling to sustain the will to live. Now add in the Dunfermline result and it’s not surprising that so few went to Blackpool. As the leadership interregnum drags on, it saps the blood of the party.

Tony Blair turned in a below-par speech. But even below par and fading in power to convince, every time he steps up to a lectern he reminds them all of his political genius. It is the same in the Commons: he stands amid swelling backbench rebellion, yet on Wednesday mornings he can rouse his party to whooping glee as he lands punches on the bench opposite, reminding his own that they may miss him when he’s gone. With all that vim and verve, no wonder he can’t let go. So much still to do, so much to stop his successor doing.

It is human instinct to clutch after immortality, leaving a footstep in the shifting sand. But political leaders crave it with unnatural passion. Blair is trying to force his legacy on to his successor, fixing Gordon Brown’s feet in concrete into his own footsteps. The so-called "dual prime minister" scenario described by Charles Clarke looks more like the grizzly embrace of death, the dying man holding the future leader in a deadly grip with his last gasp.

In this terminal phase, Brown has no option but to obey. So out he goes to bat for the ID cards he used to think wildly too expensive. In his speech yesterday on security, he even made a reasonable stab at pretending a pressing need for the "glorification of terrorism" clause, which virtually no one in the Commons believes. His speeches are taking a Churchillian turn as he reprises his Britishness theme, calling for ceremonies in every constituency for Veterans’ Day and new cadet schemes to instill military discipline in state-school pupils. "We will not yield, relax, rest, become complacent or lower our guard but will use every means, every necessary resource..." and more, to fight terror.

The daily taunts from the Tories (and some Blairites) that Brown will abandon "reform" to lead Labour back to its dark days of producer interests and union power seem to be hitting their mark. In response, no flag is big enough, no trumpet loud enough, no dead hero’s memorial tall enough - Brown must add to their patriotic clamor.

It may not gladden the hearts of those hoping that his premiership will herald renewal, optimism and progressive enthusiasm. Every time Brown parrots the need for "reform, reform, reform" as defined by Blair, spirits in the party sink a bit lower. But he has no choice. He is destined to follow Blair’s footsteps every inch of the way - until the old leader finally departs and discovers that no prime minister can ever command the future beyond his time.

All this tells us very little of what to expect when Brown’s day finally comes. Expect no more than a tiny flash of the cardinal’s red lining in what he says now. Whether once in power he will ever give more than the odd tantalizing glimpse, it’s hard to know. But for now he has no choice but tough talking. The success of New Labour was built on the "tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime" slogan that Brown himself devised. Unless Labour can prove itself as patriotic, as ready to fight and as ready to punish wrongdoers as the Tories, it will lose, lose and lose again. True, Blair has taken this game into extreme overkill, fighting more wars and locking up more criminals than any other government. But no Labour leader can survive if they fail the "toughness" test.

With Brown, more lies beneath the rhetoric. Everyone is for "reform": he hints that his might be of a different hue. Tucked into yesterday’s tough speech on security was a balancing thoughtfulness on stronger democratic accountability and shoring up civil liberties, and a seriousness about rights, with radical constitutional proposals to come. There are layers of ideas wrapped inside his flag as he strives to reclaim patriotism and Britishness for the progressive cause. It sounds so counterintuitive and unconvincing to many Labour ears that it may be a hopeless task - but it does make him unassailable by the Tories. He promises more optimistic themes in speeches to follow - easing the hardship of the lives of those "hardworking" families so often extolled by politicians, with more to come on social justice, children and opportunity.

But he can say little while cemented into the Blair footprints. Hints and briefings are not much to go on, leaving his party clutching at straws: some will point despairingly at Brown’s ultra-caution, secretiveness and failure to castigate boardroom greed. The economic dysfunction caused by gross income inequality never draws a murmur of disapproval. Some doubters worry it will be more of the same, but without Blair’s magic appeal to the middle classes.

Just wait until he gets his freedom, say his supporters. There will be a cornucopia of surprises, an opening up of government in a style to confound his critics. Purpose, drive and dynamism will bring the renewal this party needs.

Whichever it is to be, even those wary of Brown now join his enthusiasts in just wanting to get the waiting over. At Blackpool I stopped 15 local delegates in a row, including some Labour party stewards. That’s hardly a significant sample, but every single one said unequivocally that Blair should go by the summer and let the party start again at the autumn conference. Until he goes this will remain a fractious party in a state of suspended animation.