Taiwan Talks Are Not Business As Usual

The British government is mostly ignoring Ma Ying-jeou’s visit to London. As mayor of Taipei, Taiwan’s capital, Mr Ma is officially on a trip to encourage business and investment. The trade minister, Ian Pearson, had agreed to meet Mr Ma purely "in his capacity as trade minister", a Foreign Office spokeswoman said. There would be no discussions of a political nature.

Such delicacy is understandable. For in his other, more important, public capacity, Mr Ma is chairman of Taiwan’s Kuomintang (KMT), the Chinese nationalist party, and linear heir to Chiang Kai-shek, who fought and lost to China’s mainland communists in 1949.

Taiwan has rejected Beijing’s claims to sovereignty over the island ever since. Mr Ma is leader of the opposition to President Chen Shui-bian and is tipped to replace him in elections due in 2008. That makes him a very political figure indeed.

Like the US and most other countries, Britain does not have diplomatic ties with Taiwan, although it maintains business and cultural links. It says it supports a peaceful solution based on dialogue.

Meanwhile, largely in deference to Beijing, Taiwan continues officially not to exist as a separate political entity.

But Taiwan has influential friends who worry that China, which created an "anti-secession law" last year and is pursuing a military build-up, may use force one day to regain its so-called renegade province.

Mr Ma is meeting some of them in London, including members of the all-party parliamentary Britain-Taiwan group. He will also spell out his views on cross-straits relations in an LSE lecture and during visits to other European countries.

In an article this week, Mr Ma cast himself as a pragmatist in contrast to the pro-independence Mr Chen, who he accused of "rocking the boat" in regional waters.

"Neither unification nor independence is likely for the foreseeable future and therefore the status quo should be maintained," he said.

He warned that Taiwan must stay on its guard. "While it seeks to defuse tensions ... Taiwan should also demonstrate its determination to protect itself by maintaining adequate defensive capabilities."

That assertion may strike Mr Chen’s Democratic Progressive party as ironic, given the KMT’s long-running parliamentary obstruction of a proposed multimillion-dollar US arms package.

Taiwanese sources suggested that high-level fence-mending visits by KMT leaders to the mainland last year, in defiance of government policy, also raised questions about the party’s commitment to the status quo.

Mr Ma’s control of the KMT is not total. But his domestic maneuvering and foreign travels threaten to push Mr Chen into a corner and further polarize domestic opinion.

Beset by falling poll ratings and setbacks in local elections, the Taiwanese president’s stance on China has notably hardened.

Mr Chen proposed, in speeches last month, abolishing long-standing unification guidelines and seeking UN membership as the "Republic of Taiwan". And he highlighted the dangers of becoming economically "locked in" with China.

"The ultimate decision on Taiwan’s future must and will be made by the 23 million people of Taiwan of their own free will," he said. It was imperative to consolidate Taiwan’s national identity, national security and national interests.

Worryingly for the government, Mr Chen’s demarche brought a sharp reaction not only from Mr Ma’s KMT but also from mainland China and the US.

‘This again shows that he is a troublemaker and saboteur ... of Asian-Pacific stability," Li Weiyi, a spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said on Wednesday.

The US complained it had not been consulted. Washington "does not support Taiwan’s independence", the state department reiterated.

The American rebuke will underscore Taiwanese worries that as China’s power grows, long-held assumptions that, in extremis, the US would support the island militarily may no longer hold true.

Taiwan must accept it is on its own, General Hu Chen-pu, a senior defense ministry official, told the Taipei Times last week.

He said: "The US has never promised to come to Taiwan’s aid ... [and] we can never be sure it would render us assistance."