The Hook - NL East Breakdown (Part 3) - Mets and Phillies

By James Meyerriecks FantasyInfoCentral.com Cardinals Correspondent

For previous division previews, click the following links:

* AL East Part 1 - Division overview/Baltimore Orioles * AL East Part 2 - Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees * AL East Part 3 - Tampa Bay Devil Rays/Toronto Blue Jays * NL East Part 1 - Division overview/Atlanta Braves * NL East Part 2 - Florida Marlins/Montreal Expos

During our season previews, we will be accompanying players with ratings as to where they belong in a typical twelve team 5X5 rotisserie league draft with 25 rounds. The breakdowns will be as follows...

******, Rounds 1-3 *****, Rounds 4-6 ****, Rounds 7-10 ***, Rounds 11-15 **, Rounds 16-20 *, Rounds 21-25

No stars will be for players who are likely to (and should, in my opinion) go undrafted

New York Mets

Projected Rotation

Tom Glavine **** Al Leiter **** Pedro Astacio *** Steve Trachsel ** Jason Middlebrook

Closer

Armando Benitez ****

Starters

Glavine was the crown jewel of the offseason for the Mets. Not only did they add an upper tier starter, but they signed him away from one of their rivals and outbid another rival for him. As he'll be 37 by the time the season starts, you have to wonder how much longer Glavine can remain as effective as he has been in the past. If 2002 is any indication, he still has a few more seasons left in the upper echelon, and he's now pitching in one of the better pitcher's parks in the National League. His 18-11, 2.96 campaign was his best since 1998. Finesse pitchers tend to find ways to win, even as they get older.

The Hook: Glavine is still worth a look towards the end of the first ten rounds, but his relatively low strikeout totals keep him from warranting a higher pick than that.

Al Leiter has some company in the "wiley old veteran lefty brigade" now that Glavine is aboard. Unlike Glavine, Leiter is capable of pushing 200 strikeouts and has more of a power arsenal. Incredibly consistent, Leiter has notched 10+ wins seven years in a row and has kept an ERA between 3.20 and 3.50 three years running. The downside is that his ERA has risen in each of the last three years, and he's also 37.

The Hook: Leiter may see that ERA continue to rise a bit, but he should continue to keep it under four and may challenge 15 wins with an improved offense to support him. He's a good pick in the lower half of the top ten rounds.

Pedro Astacio flourished early on last season as he made the switch from the two best hitter's parks in the NL to a pitcher's park. However, he was arguably the worst pitcher in the league down the stretch with an 8.55 ERA in eleven August and September starts. At 33, he shouldn't be out of gas, but be wary of him.

The Hook: While Astacio should produce a decent win total and strike out his fair share of batters, he's just too risky to take any earlier than the twelfth or thirteenth round.

Steve Trachsel came through with a career year last season for the Mets, going 11-11 with a 3.37 ERA. He mixes it up with five different quality pitches, none of which are spectacular, and relies on trickery. He'll never strike out the 150+ hitters that you expect out of a fantasy #3 or 4. While he has decent control, he's very hittable, and relies on his fielders behind him to come up with big plays. While that may have worked last season, don't bank on a follow-up from the 32-year-old righty.

The Hook: Somehow "Trash" always seems to find a way to be a solid back of the rotation guy, but his value is minimal. Draft him at your own risk, and expect something more similar to his 2001 numbers (11-13, 4.46 ERA).

Jason Middlebrook was once considered amongst the top pitching prospects in baseball, but elbow surgery has reduced him to someone who will likely just fill the rotation for a little while. He's an extremely hard-worker who has fought through injuries his entire career to get to where he's at, and will probably eventually settle into a long-relief role. For now, look for him to battle with Mike Bacsik for the fifth spot in the rotation. The Hook: Move on.

Bullpen

As quirky as he is, and as much as he loves giving up the long ball, Armando Benitez is still one of the top ten fantasy closers out there. After limiting opponents to a .186 average last season and posting a 2.27 ERA, his 33 saves don't really look so disappointing. Considering that Benitez routinely strikes out about eleven batters per nine innings and that the Mets should have an improved offense to provide him with a few more chances, Benitez should be among the first few closers taken in most drafts.

The Hook: Benitez isn't necessarily a closer who should go before the run on closers starts, but he should fit right in amongst the top 4-10 closers taken. Grab him in the fifth or sixth when the run starts.

Sleepers

Mike Bacsik should challenge Middlebrook in camp for the fifth spot. He's overachieved throughout his minor league career and relies on a great change to go with a decent fastball. His stuff isn't phenomenal, but he could be a solid late pick if he wins the job.

The organization's top pitching prospect, Aaron Heilman, will also head to Florida with a shot at the last spot in the rotation. Heilman was 36-4 over his last three seasons at Notre Dame, and looked solid in the minors last season, posting a mid-three ERA. Most claim that he's ready, but his ceiling doesn't really seem to be too high. If Heilman wins the job out of Spring Training, think about him late, but don't bet the farm on him.

Philadelphia Phillies

Projected Rotation

Kevin Millwood ***** Randy Wolf **** Vicente Padilla *** Bret Myers ** Brandon Duckworth **

Closer

Jose Mesa ***

Starters

After losing out on the Tom Glavine sweepstakes, the Phils managed to acquire Kevin Millwood for a backup catcher from the suddenly financially strapped Braves. In doing so, they picked up a 28-year-old ace as opposed to a 37-year old ace. Millwood improved his command last season (65 walks in 217+ innings as opposed to 40 walks in half that many innings in 2001) and finally showed that he was healthy after two consecutive subpar campaigns. He's a bit of a risk as aces go, but he's among the most dominant starters in the majors if he wants to be.

The Hook: Millwood should be among the top ten starters taken in a lot of drafts, and shouldn't slip below the fifth round. He has the potential to win 20 with a low-three ERA, a solid WHIP, and close to 200 strikeouts. A legitimate fantasy ace.

Randy Wolf continues to put great second halves together, but must learn to pitch at a higher level before the break. Since 2001, Wolf has gone 12-5 with an astounding 2.13 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP after the All-Star Break. Unfortunately, he's a slow starter who has posted a 4.63 ERA before the break the past two seasons. If he can put a full season together, Wolf should be counted on as a strong No. 2 starter with the potential to be an ace. His strikeout totals won't blow you away, but they won't disappoint either.

The Hook: Wolf will probably be taken somewhere between the sixth and eighth round. If he starts slow again, don't give up on him.

Vicente Padilla was one of the most pleasant surprises of last season for the Phillies. Originally projected as a late-inning guy, Padilla won a spot in the rotation with a good Spring and never looked back. He throws hard (high 90's), but doesn't get the strikeouts that would typically be associated with a fireballer, and it would seem that the real Padilla was the one who showed up in the second half (3.60 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) rather than the one who burst onto the scene in April (2.41 ERA, 0.98 WHIP). He's always had a bit of trouble with his command throughout his minor league career, but he's a solid No. 3 starter for any fantasy team.

The Hook: With an improved lineup supporting him, expect another 14-17 win season despite a slight decline in his secondary numbers. Padilla's not an absolute stud, but he's a strong middle of the rotation guy. He belongs towards the end of the first ten rounds or the early teens in a standard league.

Brett Myers has ace potential, but at just 22, he will likely ease into the rotation in the number four slot. Described as a Curt Schilling clone throughout much of his minor league career, Myers has excellent command of his fastball and changeup and also throws a nasty curve. He ran hot and cold in a trial at the end of last season, struggling with his control (34/29 strikeout to walk ratio in 72 innings), but his minor league numbers imply that he'll start hitting his spots in the next year or two.

The Hook: A solid late-round sleeper for this season who could surprise if he develops ahead of schedule. He's gold in keeper leagues.

Brandon Duckworth struggled in his first full season in the majors, watching his ERA balloon over five when all was said and done. His ratio of 167 strikeouts in 163 innings indicates that he could very well develop once he improves command of his pitches, and his 26 homers allowed were a big shock for a pitcher who has never really had trouble with the long-ball. Duck should beat out Joe Roa for the last spot in the Phillies rotation this Spring, and should improve with some more seasoning in the majors.

The Hook: Duckworth's another solid late-round sleeper who will strike out about a batter an inning. A move to the bullpen while he gets his feet wet could actually be a good thing, but expect him to start the year in the rotation.

Bullpen

Jose Mesa just won't go away. After posting his second consecutive 40+ save season in 2002, Mesa will return for a third straight season as the anchor of the Phillies bullpen. While he's kept his ERA down, he doesn't produce typical secondary numbers for a closer, as he strikes out less than a batter an inning and his WHIP is usually over 1.3.

The Hook: He'll make a lot of games interesting, but he should close out 30-40 games again this year, and is worth a look after most of the top closers are gone.

Some people are excited about Carlos Silva, while others seem kind of sour on him. Silva produced a solid season out of the pen last year, and should see plenty of chances at holds again this year. At just 23, Silva has been mentioned as a possibility at closer after Jose Mesa retires or moves on, but most scouts claim that he doesn't quite have the stuff to close ballgames in the majors. Silva went 5-0 with a 3.21 ERA last season, but struck out just 41 in 84 innings and allowed a .272 average against.

The Hook: If he's healthy, he may be the most likely candidate to take over for Mesa if he breaks down. He should be good for 15-20 holds either way.

Sleepers

Terry Adams was very disappointing last season after all the money that the Phils gave him to become their fourth starter. After a move to the bullpen, he was gold, posting a 2.38 ERA. He came up and closed right away for the Cubs, and was mentioned as the most likely candidate to replace Jeff Shaw a few years back in L.A. before signing with the Phillies to try his hand at starting. He has both the stuff and the makeup to be effective in short bursts, and could end up seeing a bigger role than expected this season.

The Hook: Either way, he's an effective setup man who should garner plenty of holds with the Phils this season while keeping nice secondary numbers. In leagues with holds, he's definitely worth a look.

Be sure to check back in the next few days as we continue our look at the staffs of every division in baseball with the American League Central division.

Do you have any questions or comments about the column or the upcoming Major League Baseball Season? Want to know exactly when there's a new edition of "The Hook" posted throughout the season? Please e-mail me at royalcards@fantasyinfocentral.com.

Article courtesy of Fantasy Information Central.