Fantasy Baseball: On Deck -- NL West Hitting Preview (Part 1)

by Chris Wang Fantasyinfocentral.com

This week we begin our six-week journey around the majors, breaking down each starting lineup from the fantasy angle.

During our season previews, we will be accompanying players with ratings as to where they belong in a typical twelve team 5X5 rotisserie league draft with 25 rounds. The breakdowns will be as follows...

******, Rounds 1-3 *****, Rounds 4-6 ****, Rounds 7-10 ***, Rounds 11-15 **, Rounds 16-20 *, Rounds 21-25

No stars will be for players who are likely to (and should, in my opinion) go undrafted

NL West Starters

OF Barry Bonds (2) ****** 1B Todd Helton (4) ****** OF Shawn Green (8) ****** OF Larry Walker (14) ****** 2B Ray Durham (3) ***** OF Luis Gonzalez (19) ***** OF/3B Phil Nevin (3B: 24, OF: 79) ***** 1B Ryan Klesko (9) ***** SS Rich Aurilia (18) **** OF Preston Wilson (41) **** 2B Junior Spivey (7) **** OF Steve Finley (25) **** 3B Adrian Beltre (13) *** C Paul Lo Duca (6) *** SS Jose Hernandez (12) *** 3B Edgardo Alfonzo (16) *** SS Tony Womack (10) *** OF Dave Roberts (43) *** OF Mark Kotsay (47) *** OF Brian Jordan (53) ** C Charles Johnson (30) ** 1B Fred McGriff (14) ** C Benito Santiago (5) ** OF Jay Payton (55) ** 3B Sean Burroughs (NR) * OF Marquis Grissom (67) * SS Juan Uribe (23) * 1B Lyle Overbay (NR) OF Danny Bautista (94) 2B Joe Thurston (NR) OF Jack Cust (NR) 3B Matt Williams (34) OF Gabe Kapler (93) SS Ramon Vazquez (33) OF Bubba Trammell (89) 1B Damon Minor (37) 3B Pedro Felix (NR) SS Alex Cora (35) 2B Brent Butler (26) C Mike Rivera (NR) C Chad Moeller (NR) C Wiki Gonzalez (NR) 2B Mark Loretta (NR) 1B JT Snow (35) OF Marvin Bernard (NR) SS Cesar Izturis (41) C Rod Barajas (NR)

NL West Offseason Overview

In 2002, the NL West boasted one of the tightest races in the majors and also hails the NL Champions for the past two seasons. The offseason was a mixed bag in the west with the D'Backs, Dodgers and Padres basically making minor moves; while the Giants and Rockies made serious changes to their rosters.

The NL West Champion Diamondbacks scored the most runs in the NL, which I still can't full understand. Amazingly, one can foresee a scenario that they can score more runs in 2003 as Danny Bautista (and perhaps Matt Williams) should be at full strength and Lyle Overbay replaces Mark Grace. The key will be Luis Gonzalez's return from his late season shoulder injury -- he is the engine in the D'Backs offense.

The NL Champion Giants were forced to re-tool their offense due to budget restraints and I still believe that they are an outfielder short of a full offense. The Giants replaced Jeff Kent, David Bell, Reggie Sanders and Kenny Lofton with Ray Durham, Edgardo Alfonzo, Marquis Grissom and Neifi Perez - looking at their stats from last season; the Giants have lost 30 homers and 50RBIs, which is actually not as bad as I thought. With some great young pitchers coming up and of course Barry Bonds, the Giants should be right in the hunt once again in 2003.

The LA Dodgers shipped off two of the worst NL regulars (Karros and Grudzielanek) and replaced them with veteran Fred McGriff and rookie Joe Thurston. If Brian Jordan can stay healthy, the Dodgers offense should be improved in 2003. Everyone stills waits for Adrian Beltre's leap to stardom and considering that he'll be a free agent at the end of the year, the time could be now.

The Rockies made some of the most interesting moves of any team and it has gone pretty much unnoticed. After management's strategy to focus on pitching failed miserably, the team has retooled its offense for more home runs and a summer slugfest in Coors. The Rockies shipped Mike Hampton and Juan Pierre to the Fish for Charles Johnson and Preston Wilson. After that they signed free agents Jose Hernandez and Chris Stynes. These changes should help boost the 2003 numbers of Larry Walker and Todd Helton.

The Padres had one of the league's worst offenses in 2002 and they did little to improve their situation in the offseason. A couple of things should help them though. One is Phil Nevin's health -- as long as he accepts his move to the outfield, a full season of Nevin's bat should produce 30+ homers. The other is Sean Burroughs's health -- he battled a shoulder injury in the first half of last season, but he could challenge for a batting title one day. But other than Nevin, Burroughs and Klesko, the Padres offense is a mediocre one at best.

Arizona Diamondbacks

2002: 98-64, 1st place Batting average: .267 (T-3rd in NL) Runs scored: 819 (1st) Home runs: 165 (T-6th) RBIs: 783 (1st) Stolen bases: 92 (8th)

Projected lineup: (FIC 2002 player rankings based on position)

C: Rod Barajas (NR)/Chad Moeller (NR) 1B: Lyle Overbay (NR) 2B: Junior Spivey (7) **** 3B: Matt Williams (34) SS: Tony Womack (10) *** LF: Luis Gonzalez (19) ***** CF: Steve Finley (25) **** RF: Danny Bautista (94)

The duo of Rod Barajas and Chad Moeller replace All-Star catcher Damian Miller, who was shipped to Chicago in the offseason. Neither player has much value, but Moeller is the stronger offensive force of the two. Barajas showed double-digit power in the lower level minor leagues, but he has poor plate discipline and is a backup in the majors. Moeller had a good year at Triple-A Tuscon hitting .318 with 10 homers and 48 RBI in 60 games. Upon his call-up to the majors, he hit .286 with two homers and 16 RBI in 37 games. He should get the bulk of the playing time in Arizona.

On Deck: Neither of these players warrants any fantasy value.

The trade of Erubial Durazo effectively opens the door for rookie 1B Lyle Overbay at first base. Overbay, 25, has excelled at every level of the minors, as he's never hit lower than .332 in any of his four minor league stops. Last season at Triple-A Tuscan, Overbay hit .343 with 83 runs, 40 doubles, 19 homers and 109 RBI. He also drew 42 walks, which put his on-base percentage at roughly .400, while striking out 86 times. While no scouts knock Overbay's ability to hit and use the entire field, some scouts don't believe that he'll generate the power from a position that now demands power production.

On Deck: At this point in his career, Overbay isn't worth picking up (except in NL-only leagues) because there is so much depth at first base.

The D'Backs have a solid 2B in Junior Spivey though looking at his minor league numbers, you wouldn't have expected him to turn out quite the season he did in 2002. Of course it helps to have the league's number one offense around you. Spivey set professional career highs in almost every category last season: runs (101), doubles (34), homers (16) and RBI (78). He's a solid top of the order threat that gets on base and has some gap power.

On Deck: The knock on Spivey is durability as he's spent time on the DL in each of the last four seasons. Expect a slight dropoff in his production in 2003 as he played a bit over his head in the first half.

Third baseman Matt Williams, 37, was in a proposed deal going to the Rockies for Larry Walker. Unfortunately for the D'Backs, they're stuck with Williams for another year. In his prime, he was worth a look but now he is a virtual lock for the DL. He's only played 262 games in the last three years. When in the lineup he actually posts decent numbers; however, he's not worth a roster spot. So who else will play third?

Craig Counsell, who has one of the most annoying batting stances ever, will likely get the call at third as he did last season. He hits for a decent average with no power. He does make the most of his talents and is known for coming up with clutch hits. Not worth a roster spot.

The long-term answer may be Chad Tracy, who was the 2002 Texas League Player of the Year (Double-A). Tracy hit over .400 for the first two months of the season before cooling off. He is a classic line-drive gap hitter with good plate discipline. He'll start the year at Triple-A and may see action in the big show by mid-2003, especially if Matt Williams goes down again.

On Deck: Keep an eye on Tracy in keeper leagues, avoid Counsell and Williams.

Shortstop Tony Womack is consistent, yet unspectacular in comparison to the new breed of shortstops. After a dropoff in 2001, Womack got his numbers back into line with his career averages. While his days of 45+ steal seasons are likely over, he's good for roughly 30 steals at the age of 33.

On Deck: He'll hit around .270, score 90 runs and drive in 50 runs. With Womack, you know what you're going to get so there's little risk.

Outfielder Luis Gonzalez is the center of the Diamondbacks lineup. It was his season ending shoulder injury that put a huge hole in the lineup for the playoffs. Gonzo is expected to be ready to go in spring training but keep an eye on him this spring to make sure that he looks okay.

On Deck: While I don't think he'll ever come close to matching his incredible 2001 season, he's a top 20 outfielder that won't stray far from the following numbers: .300-100-30-100.

Steve Finley is still producing as he turns the age of 38 for the 2003 season. He's still a solid center fielder and he is someone that will likely fall in the draft due to people's concerns about his age. There's no evidence that he's slowing as his first half and second half numbers are virtually mirror images of each other.

On Deck: You have to wonder when age is going to catch up with this entire D'Backs lineup but for now expect Finley to hit around .275-80-20-90-15. Don't shy away from the old man while others do.

Danny Bautista returns as the D'Backs starting right fielder in 2003, after suffering a torn labrum in his left shoulder that cut his season drastically short last year. It was a really bad break as Bautista finally had an everyday job and was hitting the ball as well as he has in his entire career.

On Deck: Bautista will be 31 this season, so to expect a huge breakout a year would be completely foolish. At best Bautista will hit .300 with mid-teens power. Don't worry about him on draft day, as he should be on the free agent wire when all is said and done.

Come back tomorrow for Part 2 of the NL West previews.

Article courtesy of Fantasy Information Central.