Observations of the Patriots

By David Martin Sports Central Columnist

No matter what his numbers are this season, or how they compare to his numbers from a year ago, as much as I liked New England's Antowain Smith a year ago, I dislike him this year.

Last year, he attacked holes and turned corners on the sweep with determination and force, like a power back. This year, he's traded his power for hesitation and no longer attacks the hole. He tiptoes to the line and gets smothered in the backfield. Patriots brass can't be pleased with his performance. This lack of power to the line of scrimmage has forced the Pats to throw an inordinate number of times per game, and allowed Kevin Faulk to start to shed his reputation for being a fumbler. Faulk, as a "change of pace" back, is the greatest improvement on this team's offense from a year ago. However, that's not saying much.

Would the Pats have dropped four in a row if Troy Brown had played in three of those four games? Probably not. Of course, there's no way of knowing, but consider these stats:

Record with Troy Brown: 8-2; record without Troy Brown: 0-3.

Completion percentage with TB: 65; completion percentage without TB: 60.

TDs per game with TB: 2.2; TDs per game without TB: 1.7.

INTs per game with TB: 0.4; INTs per game without TB: 2.3.

Tom Brady clearly counts on Brown on the field. Whether during those three games the Pats went without Brown near the field, Brady felt more pressure to force plays, or the receivers ran bad routes, the TD-INT ratio is clear: the Patriots need Brown on the field, even if he isn't making plays.

The local buzz regarding the Pats' playoff chances is building. The Pats are heading into Monday night's game on a three-game winning streak, and have looked decent in wins against the Minnesota Vikings and the Buffalo Bills. Even some national press is giving the defending Super Bowl champions some respect.

I'm still skeptical, however. The Patriots have beaten teams with a combined 36-54-1 record, while losing to teams with a combined 42-23 record. The Patriots have beaten only three teams with a record currently above .500, those teams only combining for 21 wins.

On the other hand, they are tied with division-rival Miami, whose wins are over teams with a combined 50-54 record, with five wins over teams with a winning record, and three of those teams more than one game over .500. The Patriots have looked like a strong team in only four of their eight wins: over Pittsburgh, over the Jets, and both games against Buffalo. While the Jets have come on of late, neither Pittsburgh or Buffalo have looked like strong teams overall this year.

Beware of the buzz: playing the remainder of the schedule against teams with winning records, the Pats are setting up for a solid 8-8 season. Myth seems to have developed in recent weeks that the Patriots rush defense has solidified. Not quite. Since Week 3, the Pats have held opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards only four times. Twice, the Pats got out to big leads early over Buffalo.

The Bills abandoned the run early in both games. The Lions ran with some success, but opted to throw (unsuccessfully) more often than they should have. The Oakland Raiders beat the Pats while rushing for only 97 yards. That total is one of Oakland's higher this season, so it hardly counts as being held in check. The unimpressive Chicago Bears managed 125 yards in a losing effort, while the Vikings ran for 153 yards on the Pats' home field. The reason the myth exists is the fact that team has been winning. Reality looks to be coming to call on the Pats with games upcoming against Eddie George, Curtis Martin, and a revitalized Ricky Williams.

Next Sunday's game against the New York Jets is likely to be the elimination game for the Jets, and could be for the Pats, as well. A loss to Tennessee on Monday, followed by a loss to the Jets, would leave the Pats 8-7 heading into the final week against a potentially 10-5 Miami team.

Should the Pats make the playoffs, don't expect them to survive beyond the first weekend unless they get to matchup against the Steelers (see below). The only games in which they played solid football for 60 minutes were the first two games of the season, and the early November game in Buffalo. Eons ago in NFL terms. Coach Bill Belichick has had trouble motivating his team, and it shows every week.

Elsewhere in the AFC: Pittsburgh doesn't deserve the division they're in. After the horrible loss to the Texans, an automatic playoff elimination rule should set in. The Steelers will probably make the playoffs, but should be eliminated in the first round. In fact, any playoff team from the AFC North will lose in the wildcard round, Pittsburgh or Cleveland.

The AFC West division winner, who should be Oakland, but with a lot left to do, could also be Kansas City, will earn a bye week. Oakland looks like the strongest team, however, if the Chiefs can continue to win, they will have incredible momentum and be peaking at just the right time.

Does anyone care who wins the AFC South? You should. The Titans have been playing great ball lately, all on the shoulders of Steve McNair. The Colts have a fair shot at getting a wildcard spot, and could be dangerous in the first round.

Playoff predictions for the AFC:

East: Miami West: Oakland South: Tennessee North: Pittsburgh Wildcards: New England, Indianapolis AFC Championship Game: Tennessee at Oakland

As ever, these are all just wild guesses in a season when even the wildest guesses have been pretty inaccurate.

Article courtesy of Sports Central.