UN Fears Tension in Ethiopia Will Turn Into War

Ethiopia's stability was under threat last night after a major troop and tank build-up on both sides of the disputed border with Eritrea and renewed clashes in Addis Ababa between police and protesters which have already left 42 dead.

The UN secretary general, Kofi Annan, has called for "decisive steps to defuse the escalating tension", while Maj Gen Rajender Singh, commander of UN peacekeepers in the border buffer zone, warned that "this potentially volatile situation could lead to a renewed outbreak of war".

At least 100,000 people, mainly conscripts, died in the last war between 1998 and 2000 over a small piece of semi-arid territory, inhabited by only a few thousand people. The war was seen as a surrogate for deeper rivalry between the two countries' rulers over regional leadership, economic issues, and land-locked Ethiopia's access to the sea.

After the war both sides agreed to accept the results of an independent boundaries commission which reported in 2002. It awarded the Ethiopian-occupied town of Badme to Eritrea, but Ethiopia's prime minister, Meles Zenawi, has delayed implementing the report's findings.

In a successful effort to revive international interest and get the UN and foreign governments to press for Ethiopian compliance, Eritrea recently stopped helicopter flights by UN peacekeepers. But this tactic also roused the Ethiopians, who have moved tanks based 25 miles from the demilitarised zone to within 12 miles.

Eritrea has the right to send unarmed militias into the zone but UN observers have seen a growing number of men with guns. Under the peace deal only UN troops are allowed in the 16-mile-wide buffer area.

Reports from Addis Ababa say Ethiopian commanders are waiting keenly for any provocation from Eritrea on the grounds that this time they could capture vast areas of lowland Eritrea, including the port of Assab. Government officials blamed Mr Meles for ending the war in 2000 without taking enough territory.

The protests in the Ethiopian capital are not directly linked. Opposition groups from the Coalition for Unity and Democracy, who claim elections in May were rigged to give Mr Meles a third five-year term, resumed demonstrations earlier this week. Some observers say the government is stepping up tension with Eritrea to win support in Addis.

Three people were shot dead yesterday, according to local doctors, and the overnight death toll among those wounded on Tuesday rose to eight from three.

Witnesses said police opened fire to disperse anti-government protests in several areas of the city. Police have also detained scores of people including human rights activists, residents said. Special forces patrolled the streets, where shops were closed yesterday in part to mark the Muslim Eid al-Fitr festival.

The violence has prompted the Foreign and Commonwealth Office to warn Britons against non-essential travel to Ethiopia.

Mr Meles is well regarded in the West and Washington reacted to yesterday's protests by condemning "cynical, deliberate" attempts to stoke violence.

Washington urged the government to investigate the unrest and release all detainees, while urging the CUD to pursue its grievances peacefully and take up its seats in parliament, something it has so far refused to do.

The opposition groups

Muslim Brotherhood

The Sunni Muslim religious movement, outlawed in Syria. Led by Ali Bayanouni from exile in London, but has members operating secretly inside the country. Probably the largest opposition force.

Secular liberals

A small group, many of whom are leftwing, who campaign for democratic reform. Among them are MPs who took part in an experiment in political openness only to end up in jail.

Kurds

Several Kurdish parties have campaigned for years for civil rights in Syria.

Exiles

Farid Ghadry, a Syrian living in the US, runs the Reform Party of Syria, which calls for democratic change in Damascus but has limited support inside the country.