Bush on Course for Victory

George Bush was this morning on course for another four years in the White House, with Ohio set to fall into the president's camp after a long election night marked by a record turnout.

Two of the three swing states had already been called: Florida for the incumbent, Mr Bush, and Pennsylvania for his challenger, John Kerry. Ohio's 20 electoral college votes would put Mr Bush on 274 - four more than the 270 needed for victory.

The election was as close as predicted, but, by this morning, Mr Bush was heading for another term, with the Republicans also tightening their hold on the Senate and keeping control of the House of Representatives. With the possibility of more changes in the supreme court, a second Bush term would see the Republicans controlling all four key levers of government.

The record turnout - a predicted 121m votes compared to the 106m of four years ago - looked to have provided false hope for the Democratic challenger, Mr Kerry. Democrats thought that an energised electorate would favour them, but that later appeared to be wishful thinking. Americans, it seemed, were reluctant to change horses in midstream while the country was waging what Mr Bush termed the "war on terror".

The Democrats were, however, defiant even with Ohio's 20 electoral votes looking set to swing the contest decisively into the Republicans' favour. John Edwards, Mr Kerry's running mate, appeared before the party's faithful, vowing that every vote would count. Seeking to lift his party's spirits, the youthful senator, said: "We will fight for every vote."

Even before a clear picture of the outcome in Ohio emerged, the writing was on the wall for Mr Kerry when Florida, one of the three key states, was called for Mr Bush. Florida, which Mr Bush won by only 535 votes in 2000, was a more comfortable victory for the president this time.

Calling is not the same as a declaration - the analysis is based on exit polls and early counting - but US media groups insisted their statistical models had been overhauled to avoid the errors of four years ago when Florida was first called for Mr Gore and then for Mr Bush.

In all, Mr Bush carried at least 28 states and was leading in the popular vote by 51% to 48%, so, unlike in 2000, Mr Bush was clearly ahead by some 3.8m.

Exit polls suggested that slightly more voters trusted Mr Bush to handle terrorism than Mr Kerry, probably the decisive point in the president's favour. A majority said the country was safer from terrorism than four years ago, and they overwhelmingly backed the president.

However, among those who said they were very worried about a terrorist strike, Mr Kerry held a slight lead. A majority of voters said things were going poorly in Iraq, and that was another factor in favour of Mr Kerry.

With nearly 1m jobs lost in Bush's term, Mr Kerry was favoured by eight of 10 voters who listed the economy as a top issue. Voters were deeply divided as to whether the country was heading in the right direction.

Voters welcomed an end to the longest, most expensive presidential election on record. "It's the only way to make the ads stop," Amanda Karel, 25, said as she waited to vote at a banquet hall in Columbus, Ohio.

Officials predicted a turnout of 117.5 million to 121 million people, the most ever and rivalling the 1960 election in the percentage of eligible voters going to the polls. Both sides spent a combined $600m (£326.3m) on TV and radio ads, more than twice the total from 2000, as the total costs of the campaign hit a record $2bn.

Mr Bush won among white men, voters with family incomes above $100,000 and weekly churchgoers. Three-quarters of white voters who described themselves as born-again Christians or evangelicals supported the president. The president had hoped to increase his support among the religious right, but exit polls suggested that there was little change since 2000. Mr Kerry retained Mr Gore's margins among black people and union households, key parts of the Democratic base. His voters named the economy and Iraq as top issues.

One in 10 voters were casting ballots for the first time and fewer than 10% were young voters, not quite the groundswell that experts had predicted. Mr Kerry was favoured by both groups.

The chances of a dramatic win for either side diminished through the night as Colorado and West Virginia stuck with Mr Bush and New Jersey stuck with the Democrats.

Mr Bush voted yesterday in Crawford, Texas and Mr Kerry in Boston after both engaged in a spurt of unprecedented last-minute campaigning.

"I've given it my all," the president said after casting his vote. Mr Kerry, a senator for Massachusetts, was teary-eyed as he thanked his staff for their work over the campaign. "We made the case for change," he said.