Kerry Takes Bush to the Wire

George Bush's presidency was hanging by a thread early today, as young and minority voters went to the polls in droves, many for the first time, pushing turnout to record levels.

Early evening exit polls showed the Democratic challenger, John Kerry, running strongly in most of the battleground states. But the signs were that the presidency could ultimately be decided in big swing states like Ohio and Florida, as had long been predicted.

The early polls suggested that Senator Kerry had performed much better than expected among women, securing about 60% of their vote, according to provisional figures.

Mr Kerry had also made inroads into Florida's Cuban-American vote, which has traditionally voted overwhelmingly for Republicans, but Mr Bush was showing strength in the central area of the state, a swing region. Republicans also claimed that the president was well ahead among absentee ballots, which were still being counted last night.

In Ohio, there were still long lines of voters waiting outside city polling stations when they were due to close at 7.30 pm. In Cleveland voting was allowed to continue, and legal injunctions were taken by Democratic and liberal groups in other counties to keep polls open. Under US law, every eligible voter has to be allowed to vote if they arrive by the official poll closing time.

As polls closed on the east coast, it was clear Mr Kerry had secured New Jersey and three out of four electoral votes from Maine, both traditional Democratic states which had been under some threat. He also held on to the safe Democratic states of New York, Illinois, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont and the District of Columbia.

Meanwhile, the south voted solidly for President Bush with Texas, Kentucky, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Virginia and North Carolina lining up behind him.

The exit polls suggested the turnout among young voters and black Americans had increased considerably since 2000.

With long lines of voters reported to be waiting at polling stations throughout the day, election-watchers predicted the turnout could top 120 million - well above 2000's 106 million - or 60% of the electorate. Sixteen per cent of the vote this time did not vote in 2000.

On the issues, the exit polls reflected deep ambivalence over the Iraq war. They also showed that although most Americans thought it was going badly, and had not made them safer, a slight majority of 52% saw it as part of the broader "war on terrorism", as the White House has portrayed it, not as a diversion.

The electorate was split over economic issues, with Bush supporters believing the economy was in good shape, while Kerry supporters took a much dimmer view and over 40% said at least one family member had recently lost a job.

Economic issues appeared to have influenced the female vote in particular. "The untold story here is that women have gone back to the Democratic party," Frank Luntz, a prominent Washington pollster, said.

"It's also clear from the exit polls that this election turned on the economy after all. When you look at the internals [exit polls commissioned by the parties], economic voters went for Kerry four to one over Bush."

But he insisted that the race was still too close to call last night, and warned that it could still be decided in the lawcourts. "This is going to be a nail-biter. Neither candidate will go gently into that good night. In fact there may be many nights of less than gentle politics," Mr Luntz said.

Curtis Gans, the head of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, pre dicted that more than 120 million people would have voted by the end of the day.

He said the turnout, as a percentage of the eligible electorate, was likely to be more than 60%. "It could be as high as 1968 [when the turnout was 61%] or even 1960 [63%]," he said, adding that it was likely to benefit Mr Kerry.

In the Senate, the Democrats picked up a seat in Illinois, with the election of Barack Obama, the upcoming star who delivered the keynote address at the Democratic convention in July. However, the Democratic leader in the Senate, Tom Daschle, was facing a tough race in South Dakota.