Confidence is key

'As long as we compete' is the classic comment from English circles before this Ashes series. To me that sends all the wrong signals. It implies that England are beaten before it starts and that respectable defeat would be a satisfactory outcome. In which case, they should not have bothered to board the plane. Nasser Hussain's side must honestly believe that they can bring back the Ashes. Fifty to one shots sometimes win the race and not even a gung-ho Aussie bookmaker would offer those odds on England winning the series.

Duncan Fletcher and Hussain will have formulated a plan and much of it will surely be based on the New Zealand team's efforts to defeat the Australians 12 months ago. In the end that series was drawn 0-0, but the Australians were given a fright. If a couple decisions had gone the other way on the final afternoon in Perth the Kiwis could have snatched the unlikeliest of victories.

The New Zealanders, astutely led by Stephen Fleming, devised plans to undermine several of the Australians' key players and executed them with some success. Let me give you some examples, which Hussain will surely be aware of, as he prepares his side for the Brisbane Test.

Against Damien Martyn, who was so prolific against England in 2001, Fleming decided to bowl to his strength. Martyn scores stacks of his runs square of the wicket on the off side. Fleming instructed his bowlers to bowl down the off-side 'corridor', giving Martyn ample opportunity to play one of his favourite strokes - the square slash/cut. But he also packed the off-side field with a deep gully, a man catching at point, as well as an orthodox square cover and a wide third man.

Martyn was caught square of the wicket by one of these fielders early in the series and thereafter was in two minds: whether to follow his natural instincts and go for the shot or to be more discreet. He was forced to question how he should play and gradually his confidence was eroded. Of course, such a plan can work only if the bowlers are disciplined. If Martyn is given easy run-scoring opportunities on a sparsely defended leg side, there is no need for him to worry about scoring on the off side.

Steve Waugh also had a modest series against the Kiwis. Here Fleming adopted an unlikely plan. When Waugh came in he would summon up Craig McMillan, little more than a part-time bowler. McMillan would often bowl a succession of bouncers to Waugh and this seemed to unnerve the Australia captain. Waugh would duck bouncers from Shane Bond or Chris Cairns as a matter of course, but against an aggressive trundler such as McMillan he wasn't sure what to do.

One other example of Kiwi ingenuity concerned Adam Gilchrist. Often, when Gilchrist appeared, Fleming immediately took the pace off the ball by calling up Daniel Vettori. An in-out field was set (close catchers and boundary fielders on the leg side) and Gilchrist, who likes to start his innings with a bang, was ruffled. One problem here for England is that Vettori is a far greater master of flight than Ashley Giles, but it may be a ploy worth considering.

However, the most important lesson that England can learn from the Kiwis is also the hardest. The New Zealanders, especially when they play the Australians, have remarkable self-belief. They believe they can win; they stand toe to toe with the Aussies, eager for a good scrap. Whether this frame of mind can be taught I'm not sure, but the greatest challenge for Fletcher and Hussain is convincing their side that they can win. The English selectors have certainly signalled aggressive intent by choosing two raw pacemen, Simon Jones and Steve Harmison. Both will have a bit of a shock if they think they can prosper through pace alone. Australian wickets often allow the ball to whizz through at head height and this gives pacemen fleeting satisfaction, but it won't worry the Aussie batsmen. Pace is an asset, but only if the ball is propelled to the right length so that it hits the splice of the bat as the player moves forward. Bowl short or full at the likes of Ricky Ponting and the match will spiral out of control.

I wonder how swiftly Hussain will revert to his negative tactics when two Aussie batsmen are set. Here England can self-destruct if they are not careful - for two reasons. The first is that Aussie grounds are hard to defend - most are massive with fast outfields. Second, and more importantly, the bowlers who are required to bowl defensively get in the wrong mindset. Their natural flair to take wickets is stifled and in the long term their rhythm is disrupted.

We've witnessed this recently with Giles, Matthew Hoggard and Andrew Flintoff. Last summer Flintoff bounced Rahul Dravid on countless occasions; Dravid smiled and watched the ball fly over his head and Flintoff lost his natural ability to gain bounce from a length, which is his greatest asset. This trio of bowlers are not mature enough to switch from defensive to offensive mode at the flick of a switch.

There will be the odd fresh face in the Aussie line-up. Mark Waugh's omission, a decision I agree with, allows Darren Lehmann one last chance as a Test cricketer. Last time Lehmann batted frenetically against England, trying to make up for six years' absence in one innings. He will feel some pressure, especially since young Michael Clarke is scoring so many runs. Clarke is 21, from New South Wales, orthodox, healthily arrogant and looks as if he owns the crease. The other fresh face belongs to Shane Warne. He has lost two stone and is buzzing. Justin Langer tells me that he really has unearthed a new ball - who knows what he will call it? It looks like a leg-break but skids on and, according to Langer, it's impossible to spot. It accounted for about half of his 27 wickets in the three-match series against Pakistan. Expect a rejuvenated Warne to be the leading wicket-taker in the series.