Australia forecast Kenya attacks

The Australian government gave out a specific warning to its citizens over possible attacks on "western interests" in Kenya it was revealed last night.

It mentioned the "possible risk of terrorist attacks against sites in Kenya particularly in Nairobi and Mombasa".

While western intelligence sources last night described the attacks as "no great surprise", the Foreign Office advised British travellers to Kenya simply to "be aware of indiscriminate attacks on civilian targets in public places, including tourist sites".

This general warning - issued after the October 12 attack in Bali - is included in advice addressed primarily to personal protection against muggers.

In contrast the advice from Australia, issued on November 12 in the light of what Australia described as "new information", goes much further.

It advised Australians "to defer all non-essential travel to Mombasa". Those already there were advised to consider leaving.

A Foreign Office spokeswoman said last night that it stood by the advice it had given on November 6, less than a week before the Australians changed theirs.

The marked difference in the nature of that advice echoes the warnings which emerged after the Bali bombings, when the Australian and American governments gave more specific warnings than the British.

Jack Straw, the foreign secretary, said at the time he did not think Bali should have been named because it might compromise intelligence sources.

Other governments did not take that view.

There was further confusion when both Australia and Denmark put out warnings to their citizens over possible attacks in the Thai resort of Phuket. The Foreign Office initially refused to change its advice to Britons. Five days later it issued its own warning without elaboration.

Yesterday's attacks again raise the question of the nature of intelligence warnings. Intelligence sources pointed out that Kenya had already proved vulnerable to attacks by al-Qaida when the US embassy in Nairobi was bombed in 1998.

They also said more and more information had been gathered pointing to a coordinated attack on Israeli interests. Kenya has close ties with Israel, including arms and intelligence links. Moreover, it is geographically vulnerable, with a coastline open to arms smugglers and a border with Somalia, suspected of being a base for al-Qaida supporters.

"The fact that [the attacks] happened was no surprise yet no one knew in advance," one source said, pointing to what he called the difficulty in getting specific intelligence. "Terrorists always have the initiative."

Sheikh Omar Bakri Muhammad, leader of the radical London-based group al-Muhajiroun, claimed yesterday that Islamist extremists sympathetic to al-Qaida had warned of an attack on Kenya a week ago on internet chat rooms and in emails.

"Militant groups who sympathise with al-Qaida warned one week ago that there would be an attack on Kenya and they mentioned Israelis," he claimed.