World Baseball Championships would rival World Series

I'm very intrigued by the proposed idea of a World Series of Baseball. At first I sort of pooh-pooh'ed the idea, thinking the USA would be too strong, but now I'm not so sure.

Certainly the USA would be heavy favorites, but an eight-team tournament that featured Canada, Australia, Japan, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Venezuela and the USA would be interesting.

While Canada and Australia would be prohibitive underdogs, they still bring some legit big leaguers.

Canada could be lead by Larry Walker and Corey Koskie and if the Canucks somehow got a lead a bullpen that features Paul Quantrill, Jeff Zimmerman (if healthy) and Eric Gange could cause havoc in a single elimination tournament.

Australia would be in tough as well, but with Damian Moss and Grahame Lloyd available, the Men of Oz would also have an outside shot of winning a pitcher's duel.

Let's say though that the smart money would bet on a seventh place showdown between the Commonwealth brothers.

Where it gets interesting is with the top six teams. Below I review the remaining nations with some preliminary odds on their chances to win the tournament.

Mexico(30-1)

Mexico brings some legit major-league talent to the table. The Mexicans depth would start on the mound.

Rodrigo Lopez (Record: 15-7, 3.57 Earned Run Average, .234 Opponents Batting Average) would arguably be the Mexicans No. 1 starter. After that, Mexico would have a few solid options with Elmer Dessens (7-8, 3.03 ERA, .257 OBA) and San Diego rookie Oliver Perez (4-5, 3.50 ERA, .218 OBA). To round out a rotation the Mexicans would have Ismael Valdes and Esteban Loaiza available. While Loaiza was a bust again this year, readers of this space will know that Esteban is very streaky. He had three complete game victories in 2002 despite his gaudy numbers. He might be the Robert Reichel of international baseball -- below average in the pros but a very useful presence when playing for his country.

In the pen the Mexicans would have three capable major league arms in Juan Acevedo (1-5, 2.57 ERA, .246 OBA, 28 Saves), Antonio Osuna (8-2, 3.86 ERA, .250 OBA, 11 Sv) and Ricardo Rincon (1-4, 4.18 ERA, .230 OBA).

The Mexicans weakness is in position players. The Mexicans have an interesting power threat at first base in Erubiel Durazo (.261 Batting Average, 16 Home runs, 48 Runs Batted In) and an emerging superstar in Karim Garcia (.297 BA, 16 HR, 52 RBI in only 202 ABs), but after that the cupboard gets bare. Geronimo Gil (.232 BA, 12 HR, 45 RBI) would provide adequate work behind the plate, but Vinny Castilla (.232 BA, 12 HR, 61 RBI) is pretty well done as an offensive threat. Up the middle, Anaheim Angel part timers Benji Gil (.280 BA, 2 HR, 20 RBI) and Alfredo Amezaga (.538 BA, 0 HR, 2 RBI) would be good bets to play 2B and SS respectively.

For the Mexicans to threaten they would need top notch pitching, solid defense, and hope that Durazio and Garcia could swing hot sticks for the entire tourney. Still with Lopez going and a solid bullpen, the Mexicans have enough pop to escape the "gimmie" category.

Japan (15-1)

Japan is a tough team to handicap. A great deal of their best players (such as Hideki Matsui) have never played in North America. From looking at the results of the Japan-USA All-Star series, it suggests that Japan could compete with any team in the tournament. But who would go?

Starting pitching-wise, it's likely that Kazuhisa Ishii (14-10, 4.27 ERA, .240 OBA) would go. He was pitching as well as anyone to start the 2002 season. Similarly, Tomokazu Ohka (13-8, 3.18 ERA, .264 OBA) was great down the stretch giving up two earned runs or less in eight of his final 10 starts. Hideo Nomo (16-6, 3.39 ERA, .236 OBA) rediscovered his form in Los Angeles and would be a virtual shoo-in for this team. After that Masato Yoshii could be a contender, either as a starter or in long relief.

In the bullpen proper, Japan would likely use the Seattle combo of rubber-armed Shigetoshi Hasegawa (8-3, 3.20 ERA, .238 OBA, 1 Sv) and of course Kazuhiro Sasaki (4-5, 2.52 ERA, .201 OBA, 38 Sv).

The biggest influx of "unknown" players on the Japanese squad would be seen in the field. Only Ichiro Suzuki (.321, 8 HR, 51 RBI, 31 SB) is assured of being on the Japanese team among the Japanese big leaguers. Tsuyoshi Shinjo (.238, 9 HR, 37 RBI) might have an inside track for a roster spot due to his familiarity with major league pitching. Japan could pull a surprise by naming Dave Roberts (.277, 3 HR, 34 RBI, 45 SB) to the team. Roberts was an army brat and was born in Okinawa, so he could opt to play for Japan. (I am assuming that baseball's international committee would have a similar set of rules as basketball's and soccer's international committees.

Depending on the strength of Japan's domestic league the "land of the rising sun" could be a threat to win the whole shooting match.

Puerto Rico (12-1)

"Whoa," I hear you say. "Puerto Rico is part of the USA, so why would they compete under there own banner. Two reasons 1) Go into San Juan and tell them they are all Americans, it's a good way to improve your time in the 100 meters, and 2) Because on their own, Puerto Rico could win the whole shooting match.

This is a team, who like the Dominican Republic, believe themselves to be the "jewel" in baseball's prospects producing crown. Looking at the lineup they might field it's hard to argue the point.

At first, Carlos Delgado (.277, 33 HR, 108 RBI). At second, you have the choice between Roberto Alomar (.266, 11 HR, 53 RBI) or Jose Vidro (.315, 19 HR, 96 RBI). At short, the PR has Jose Hernandez (.288, 24 HR, 73 RBI), an under-rated player because of his big time whiff count. Third base could see Mike Lowell (.276, 24 HR, 92 RBI) or Jose Valentin (.249, 25 HR, 75 RBI). At catcher there are several options, Gold Glover Bengie Molina (.245, 5 HR, 47 RBI), Benito Santiago (.278, 16 HR, 74 RBI), Sandy Alomar Jr. (.279, 7 HR, 37 RBI - in an injury plagued season), Javy Lopez (.233, 11 HR, 52 RBI -- an off year), Jorge Posada (.268, 20 HR, 99 RBI) and, oh yeah, some guy named Ivan Rodriguez (.314, 19 HR, 60 RBI). The PR could be the first team to have an all-catcher bench.

In the outfield the Puerto Ricans have several options. Bernie Williams (.339, 19 HR, 102 RBI) is a good bet for center field. Carlos Beltran (.273, 29 HR, 105 RBI) is a center fielder by trade, but he could move over for Bernie. Juan Gonzalez (.282, 8 HR, 35 RBI) had a tough injury filled year, but he'd swing a mean stick in the middle of the PR line-up. Puerto Rico also has Jose Cruz Jr., and Rueben Sierra to work with.

On the mound, the PR would rely on young guns Javier Vasquez (10-13, 3.91 ERA, .271 OBA) and Joel Piniero (14-7, 3.24 ERA, .256 OBA). After that the starting ranks are thinner so Puerto Rico would have to bring some untested youth to the tournament.

In the bullpen, J.C. Romero (9-2, 1.89 ERA, .213 OBA), Hector Machado (2-2, 4.62 ERA, .224 OBA) and Roberto Hernandez (1-3, 4.33 ERA, .300 OBA, 26 Sv) are the players with the most major league cred.

Puerto Rico is probably a little soft in the pitching staff to really be a favorite in the tournament. They do have depth in offense, and with what could be a solid defensive squad, Puerto Rico would be a dangerous underdog. Especially when you consider that their players would like nothing more than to beat the USA.

Venezuela (5-1)

At first blush, the idea of Venezuela being a threat to win a World Title seems a little far fetched, but take a look at the players hailing from this South American power and suddenly you have a legitimate dark horse.

It starts with a potential outfield of Bobby Abreu (.308, 20 HR, 85 RBI, 31 SB), Magglio Ordonez (.320, 38 HR, 135 RBI) and Richard Hidalgo, who fought through an injury-riddled campaign (.235, 15 HR, 48 RBI), but is a former 120 RBI man and finished with a (I can't resist) bang. Roger Cedeno and Melvin Mora add speed and defense, while impressive rookie Endy Chavez could be a valuable bench player.

In the infield, the Venezuelans have Edgardo Alfonzo (.308, 16 HR, 56 RBI in an off-year) who would start at third. Up the middle, Omar Vizquel (.275, 14 HR, 72 RBI) brings as much to the table as any other shortstop in the league not named A-Rod or Tejada. Carlos Guillen (.261, 9 HR, 56 RBI) is a fine choice to back-up Vizquel. At second, Minnesota's Luis Rivas (.256, 4 HR, 35 RBI) would have the inside track to be chosen. Ramon Hernandez (.233, 7 HR, 42 RBI) is probably the catcher of choice for Venezuela, while the "Big Cat" Andreas Galarraga (.260, 9 HR, 40 RBI) still has enough left to cement the left side of the infield for his country.

The Venezuelans pitching staff would feature Freddy Garcia (16-10, 4.39 ERA, .260 OBA), Omar Daal (11-9, 3.90 ERA, .239 OBA), and Tony Armas Jr. (12-12, 4.44 ERA, .243 OBA).

The bullpen would have the potential to be awesome. Jorge Julio (5-6, 1.99 ERA, .213 OBA, 25 Sv), Ugueth Urbina (1-6, 3.00 ERA, .202 OBA, 40 Sv), Kelvim Escobar (5-7, 4.27 ERA, .246 OBA, 38 Sv), Johan Santana (8-6, 2.99 ERA, .212 OBA), and Carlos Silva (5-0, 3.21 ERA, .281 OBA). A big wild card could be Anaheim Angels rookie Francisco Rodriguez, who blew away everyone he faced in the 2002 post-season.

If Garcia and Armas Jr. can pitch to their potential, having a solid lefty starter in Omar Daal could give Venezuela a good shot at getting to what could be a dominating bullpen.

Overall, Venezuela has a very interesting mix of solid offensive players and potential big game pitching that could make them a nightmare to face.

Dominican Republic (2-1)

The Dominican's strength as a baseball country is well known. A veritable baseball factory, the Dominican Republic could arguably be the team with the best chance of knocking the USA off.

The DR would send out an excellent offensive unit. Starting with AL MVP Miguel Tejada (.308, 31 HR, 131 RBI) at short, and featuring NL MVP runner-up Albert Puljos (.314, 34 HR, 127 RBI) in left field. Add Vladamir Guerrero (.336, 39 HR, 111 RBI) in right, Tony Batista (.244, 31 HR, 87 RBI) at third, (or perhaps Adrian Beltre .257, 21 HR, 75 RBI), Alfonso Soriano (.300, 39 HR, 102 RBI) at second, slide David Ortiz(.272, 20 HR, 75 RBI) into first and you have a nice little group. Somehow you'd have to find a way to get Sammy Sosa (.228, 49 HR, 108 RBI) into the line-up. Perhaps Guerrero could play center field? (With the talent this kid has, I wouldn't bet against him.) What about Manny Ramirez (.334, 33 HR, 107 RBI in just 430 AB's)?

You would also have Cristian Guzman, Rafael Furcal, Luis Castillo, Juan Encarnacion, Danny Bautista and Raul Mondesi available.

That last one is the one who would scare me the most. Mondesi is a pure emotion guy. I could see him coming out there and playing at the level his physical talents seem to demand. Do you want to have to run on Mondesi in the ninth inning of a tie game? Or face a pumped up Mondesi with two on in the eighth? In the regular season, yeah why not. But, with pride of country on the line, I personally, would be scared to death.

Which brings us to a brief time out to talk about what I would perceive to be an interesting part of the World Championships -- the emotion. It's no secret that the Latin ballplayer plays at a different emotional level than the majority of North Americans or the Japanese. You have to think of that emotion as either a huge edge for the Latin Americans or something that could be exploited by early disappointments in the tournament.

On the mound, the Dominican Republic would have an awesome rotation -- starting with the scariest pitcher in the major's (no offense, Randy Johnson) in Pedro Martinez (20-4, 2.26 ERA, .198 OBA), followed by Bartolo Colon (20-8, 2.93 ERA, .252 OBA), Odalis Perez (15-10, 3.00 ERA, .226 OBA), and Ramon Ortiz (15-7, 3.77 ERA, .230 OBA), with Pedro Astacio and Miguel "Hemmingway" Bautista as candidates for the end of the rotation.

In the pen, Francisco Cordero (2-0, 1.79 ERA, .204 OBA 10 Sv), Octavio Dotel (6-4, 1.85 ERA, .173 OBA, 6 Sv), Armando Benitez (1-0, 2.27 ERA, .190 OBA, 33 Sv), Valerio de los Santos (2-3, 3.12 ERA, .211 OBA) and Francisco Rodriguez (8-6, 4.17 ERA, .221 OBA) would offer as intimidating a lineup of hard nasty hurlers as any country could put forward.

With the roster the Dominican could send out, aside from the catching position, which is a hole, there is no reason to think this island nation could not be even money to take the title. With a Martinez-Colon 1-2 punch, the Dominicans have the ability to match the USA pitch for pitch.

USA (2-3)

The United States would have to be seen as the big favorites for any title.

For my money, that's due to the pitching edge the USA has. Eight of the top ten ERA leaders among pitchers with 160+ innings pitched are USA born. Six of the next ten are as well. Eight of the top ten strikeout leaders hail from the USA. The same goes for the next ten.

In the bullpen, seven of the top ten save earners were USA born. Americans also dominated in the opponents batting average category and Walks + Hits Per Innings Pitched (WHIP).

So, the USA should have no problem finding great arms. Every extra game in the tournament should play to the USA strengths, as no other country can send out nearly as strong a five-man rotation as the United States.

In the field, it's an embarrassment of riches at every position. First Base? Jim Thome, Jason Giambi, Todd Helton, Paul Konerko. At second you could have Bret Boone, Jeff Kent, or Junior Spivey. Move to third and Troy Glaus, Scott Rolen, Eric Chavez and clutch veteran Robin Ventura are waiting. Like shortstops? How does Nomar Garciapara, Alex Rodriguez, and Derek Jeter grab you? Behind the plate? Mike Piazza, Paul Lo Duca, Jason Varitek and Mike Leiberthal are all waiting in the wings.

In the outfield, it's absolutely sick. In left field you could start Barry Bonds, and then let Pat Burrell, Luis Gonzalez, Garret Anderson, Brian Giles and Chipper Jones fight it out for the No. 2 spot. Over in right, Shawn Green does it all, while Gary Sheffield, Trot Nixon and Tim Salmon are all good candidates to topple Green. And in center? Hmmm, Lance Berkman, Jim Edmonds, Torii Hunter, and a not bad young ballplayer named Vernon Wells are all available to Team USA.

That doesn't even take into account Raul Ibanez, super pest David Eckstein, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Jeff Bagwell, and (insert overlooked superstar here).

However, as the world hockey and basketball championships have shown, depth is not always all it's cracked up to be. Canada and the USA dominate in player depth in those two sports (respectively), but the international scene has shown that, more and more, a few top players can even the playing field. So, too, can systems and emotion. No matter who the USA trotted out, if it came down to one single game against the Dominican Republic and Pedro or Bartolo was going for the DR, it would be a "pick-em" at best.

I hope Baseball can get this tournament together. It would be an excellent opportunity to see some fantastic mid-winter baseball.