Right Claims Poll Victory in Croatia

The Croatian right is poised to sweep back into power today with results from a general election expected to confirm a narrow victory that will test the winning side's claims to have put its authoritarian past behind it.

In the most closely contested election since independence 12 years ago and the following four years of war with Serbs, the heirs to the wartime authoritarian regime of the late president Franjo Tudjman staged a comeback.

Returns released by the electoral commission gave the rightwing bloc 72 of the 140 seats with about half the votes counted, a slim majority that may increase depending on coalition horsetrading that will get under way today.

The party's leader, Ivo Sanader, a 50-year-old former academic from Dalmatia, called the outcome "a brilliant victory" that gave him a mandate to form a government.

The centre-left government of the Social Democrat prime minister, Ivica Racan, was left looking disconsolate after four years during which Croatia has made strides towards integration with Europe and put behind much of the cronyism of the Tudjman years.

"It is over when it is over, and it is not over yet," Mr Racan said last night as his party clung to hopes of a surge of support from among uncounted ballots.

Mr Sanader has expelled nationalist extremists from his party, the HDZ or Croatian Democratic Union, and claims to head a mainstream European conservative party. He has also signalled his intention to pursue moderate policies.

Dissatisfaction with a large national debt, high unemployment, and social hardship endured under the Racan government contributed to the triumph of the centre-right.

But Croatia's ambition to join the EU was another key election issue, and some European ambassadors have yet to be convinced that Mr Sanader has done enough to bring his party into line.

War crimes, encouraging the return of tens of thousands of ethnic Serb refugees, reform of the courts and the police, and cooperation with the rest of former Yugoslavia are the tests of Croatia's ambitions to join the EU. It hopes to join in 2007 along with Romania and Bulgaria, but realising that ambition looks a tall order.

Last week Mr Sanader called on Serb refugees to return to their pre-war homes in Croatia, a statement that was widely seen as a cynical electioneering ploy.

Miomir Zuzul, the likely new foreign minister, insisted however that the plea was genuine, not least because it probably cost the HDZ many votes on the right.

Mr Sanader insisted last night that his commitment to EU membership was absolute.