Hot Stove League - NL Central outlook (Part Five of Six)

By Peter Friberg Sports Central Columnist

Chicago -- The Cubs featured five pitchers who threw more than 50 innings and posed sub-4.00 ERAs (Todd Van Poppel, with a 2.52 ERA in 75.0 innings; Karl Farnsworth, 2.74 in 82.0; Kerry Wood, 3.36 in 174.1; Jeff Fassero, 3.43 in 73.1; and Jon Lieber, 3.80 in 232.1 - Juan Cruz (3.22 in 44.2) and Tom Gordon (3.38 in 45.1) also posted sub-4.00 ERAs while just missing my 50-inning line of demarcation. This bodes well for 2002, as only Van Poppel is a free agent among the group.

Fred McGriff (.282/.383/.559) didn't seem to provide the protection Cubs fans were hoping for. He did, however, post the only non-Sammy OPS over .900 (Rondell White posted an OPS of exactly .900).

Sammy Sosa (.328/.437/.737) quietly had another MVP caliber season only to be over-shadowed by some guy from San Francisco. His 64 HR marks the third time in the last four years that he's reached the 60-HR plateau. This remarkable level of power and consistency will lead straight to Cooperstown whenever Sammy does hang it up. If White, McGriff, and 3B Bill Mueller (.295/.403/.448) can stay healthy (White and Mueller played in a combined 165 games) and productive, Sammy should have another monster season.

Two minor leaguers who could provide some excitement and help for the Cubbies are RHP Mark Prior and OF Cory Patterson. Prior has yet to pitch even minor league baseball, but could be on this team by mid-season -- he should pass through the Cubs' minor league teams very quickly.

Patterson has had a couple cups of coffee with the Major League team, but has yet to stick. Unless he is overly impressive in Spring Training, expect him to start the season in AAA. He will probably win the starting CF position by the end of '02.

While they came up a bit short in '01, they should remain competitive and again challenge for the wildcard and NL Central title.

Cincinnati -- The Reds look a bit like Texas did going into the 2001 season. While they don't have quite as much power that the 2001 team appeared to have, there are basically no offensive holes. Pitching, on the other hand, leaves something to be desired.

Cincy will probably trade either Dmitri Young (.302/.350/.481) or Sean Casey (310/369/458), or both. They need more pitching and either can play first base. Cincy also has 1B Ben Broussard who hit .320 (.320/.428/.592) with 23 HR in 353 AA at bats. Broussard also displayed good patience nearing a 1-to-1 SO/BB ratio (69/61). He should be playing in Cincy before long. The more pressing reason to trade Casey or Young is OF Austin Kearns. Kearns missed most of '01 with injuries but coming into the season was considered better than Adam Dunn.

Sean Casey may be nicknamed "The Mayor," but Adam Dunn's name will be more heralded in Cincy as long as he wants it to be. Dunn (.262/.371/.578 -- with the Big League squad) hit 51 homers in 160 games this season (12 in 39 AA games, 20 in 55 AAA games, and 19 in 66 MLB games). Dunn may challenge Ken Griffey, Jr. (.286/.365/.533) for the team lead in HR (Griffey hit 22 in 364 AB in '01).

Scott Williams, who was very effective in '99 and '00, was on the team long enough to record 2 outs in '01. He has pitched primarily out of the bullpen including converting 25 of 34 career save opportunities. However, he did start 10 games in '00 and has successfully lobbied for a full-time starters roll in '02. He should be very effective for the Reds there -- he has a career 2.88 ERA in 206.0 innings.

After Williams, only one starter, Jim Brower (10 starts in 46 games), posted a sub-4.00 ERA in 129.1 innings. Brower unfortunately walked 60 while K'ing only 94 - not a very good ratio.

Cincinnati could score a bunch of runs this season. It will be interesting to see who they have pitching. If GM Jim Bowden (a notoriously active trader) can piece together an effective rotation, this team could challenge for a wildcard bid.

Houston -- While most teams why away from short power pitchers, the Astros embrace them. One baseball writer (Rob Neyer, I think) compared this to having monopolistic recruiting rights to one area. Rookies: Roy Oswalt (2.73 in 141.2), Tim Redding (5.50 in 55.2, Carlos Hernandez (1.02 in 17.2), as well as Octavio Dotel (2.66 in 105.0), and closer Billy Wagner (2.73 in 62.2 -- converting 39 of 41 save opportunities) are all listed as 6'0" or less -- some are quite generously listed so.

Wade Miller (3.40 in 212.0) anchors this pitching staff that could be compared to the Braves of '91.

Of the returning Astros, four have OBP over .350 (Lance Berkman, .331/.430/.620; Jeff Bagwell, .288/.397/.568; Craig Biggio, .292/3.82/.455; and Richard Hildago, .275, .356/.455). This team will get on base and score runs often.

OF Daryle Ward will finally get a full time gig. After three years of part-time and pinch-hitting duty, Ward will have the every day LF job with Berkman shifting to RF. Ward has 37 HR in his part-time duty in 278 games and 627 AB. His career SO/BB needs work (142/44) but should improve with regular playing time.

It will be interesting to see how new manager Jimy Williams handles this team. In Boston, Jimy regularly changed the lineup around. With a more role-defined team such as the Astros, the lineup shifts should be less frequent.

All in all, the Astros have to be considered one of the teams to beat again in the Central.

Milwaukee -- Strikeouts are generally considered a bad thing. However, consider the following: Milwaukee set a new record for team SO's in a season (1399); the Braves were second in the NL in fewest SO's (1039); when it came to the all important game winning stat (runs scored) both near the bottom separated by only 11 runs; Atlanta and Milwaukee were No.'s 11 and 12 (respectively) in team walks; the three teams that led the NL in walks, San Diego, San Francisco, and Arizona, were all in the top five in runs scored.

What does that tell you about the importance of the walk? If you are a young pitcher, don't walk people; if you're a young hitter, be patient.

To make matters worse for the Brew-crew, Milwaukee pitchers led the NL is walks allowed and were 14th in K's. Milwaukee has along road back to being successful.

The Brewers' bullpen is a bright spot for Milwaukee. Five pitchers out of the bullpen (and zero starters) notched sub-4.00 ERA's while throwing over 50 innings (Chad Fox, 1.89 in 66.2; David Weathers. 2.03 in 57.2, Mike DeJean, 2.77 in 84.1; Ray King, 3.60 in 55.0; and Curt Leskanic, 3.63 in 69.1). However, this group is typical of Milwaukee pitchers in that they still need to find the plate more often. A 2-to-1 SO-BB ratio isn't bad, nor is it good. For this five-some, (307-156) the combined total is fair representation of each.

Jamey Wright, Jeff D'Amico, and Ben Sheets were all supposed to be impressive this year and because of the that threesome, Milwaukee was a chic wildcard pick in the NL. The threesome disappointed us; going a combined 24-26 and each sporting ERA's north of 4.80. It is worth noting that D'Amico only made ten starts. However, Wright and Sheets combined for only 241 K's and a whopping 176 walks in 345.2 innings.

Former Toronto Assistant GM Dave Stewart has been hired as the pitching coach in Milwaukee. Anyone familiar with the '98 Padres knows how much Stewart had to do with the Padres' pitching success that year. Look the Brew-crew pitching staff (should we call them "The Stew-Crew" -- should I copyright that name?) to make significant strides next year.

However, don't expect any drastic improvements from Milwaukee hitters. Milwaukee will again struggle to compete in '02. Just don't believe it when Baseball's talking heads blame it on the SO total. A smart fan will realize that the Brew-crew is struggling because they can't take a walk.

Pittsburgh -- GM Dave Littlefield appears to have his hands full. In 2001, he took over a team that former GM Cam Bonifay seemed hell-bent to destroy.

Bonifay signees Kevin Young (.232/.310/.399) and Derek Bell (.173/.287/.288) were both signed to multiyear contracts, but haven't played worthy of MLB's min. wage.

The Pirate cupboard isn't completely bare. OF Brian Giles (.309/.404/.590) and 3B Aramis Ramirez (.300/.350/.535) each hit over 30 HR (37 and 34 respectively). Rookie Craig Wilson (.310/.390/.589), who came up through the minors as a catcher, but probably won't supplant Kendall behind the plate, was impressive hitting 13 HR in 103 AB and should be the everyday starter at 1B next season.

In my Blue Jays review, I used the old saying, "If you're not contending, you're rebuilding." Littlefield has to determine if the most effective way to do that is by keeping the aforementioned threesome, or trading one/some of them for players who might be more accurately labeled "prospects."

On the pitching half of the equation, only two Pirates posted sub-4.00 ERA's while throwing 50+ innings (Josias Manzanillo, 3.39 in 79.2 and Dave Williams, 3.71 in 114.0). While neither Todd Ritchie's ERA (4.47), nor his win/loss 11/15) record, were impressive, his 124 K's to 52 BB was at least respectable. Furthermore, the losses can't completely be blamed on him; the Bucs only managed 3.69 runs per nine innings for Ritchie.

While most of the baseball world bemoans idea of contraction, Pirate fans have visions of Vladimir Guerrero patrolling the Pittsburgh RF. If contraction does happen -- it may, but process will be long and difficult -- the Pirates will own the No. 1 pick in the Vladi-stakes.

Barring a pitching miracle (or 11), plus a winning ticket in the Vladi-stakes, the Pirates will again patrol the nether regions of the NL Central standings in '02.

St. Louis -- The biggest news in St. Louis is obviously Mark McGwire's retirement. While Mark has been the most dominant power hitter in baseball when he's healthy, he hasn't been all that healthy the past two years. It was especially telling, and sad, to see Tony LaRussa pinch hit for McGwire in the NLCS in effect ending Mark's career on "manager's decision" play rather than seeing what Mark could have done.

Now that all the eyes have been wiped, the Cards are stacked for 2002. Without Mark they're still a scary-good team. And rumors abound that the Cardinals will use the $15 mil ear-marked for McGwire to attempt to lure Jason Giambi to St. Louis.

Do not, for a New York minute, think that Jason in a Card uni is a far-fetched idea. Think about these two things: first, and you'll hear this one often, McGwire mentored Giambi when they were Oakland. So Jason will do more than just listen politely to Mark's comments about St. Louis; second, while Jason isn't a good defensive first baseman, he takes pride in being "old school" and is not a fan of the DH -- will he want to play for the Yankees were he would be their DH while Nick Johnson played first? It's very likely that the answer to that question is "No." All this leads to a path ending in St. Louis.

Here's some scary news for next year's Cardinal's opponents. Three Cardinals return with OPS over .950 (J.D. Drew, 1.027; Albert Pujols, 1.013; and Jim Edmunds, .974). Even without Giambi, that threesome should spark much fear into opposing pitchers' hearts.

My famed sub-4.00 ERA in 50 innings list has nine -- repeat: nine -- Cardinal pitchers: Steve Kline, 1.80 in 75.0; Woody Williams, 2.28 in 75.0; T.J. Matthews, 3.24 in 89.0; Matt Morris, 3.13 in 216.1; Mike Matthews 3.24 in 89.0; Dave Veras, 3.70 in 65.2, Rookie, Bud Smith, 3.83 in 84.2; and Gene Stechschulte, 3.86 in 70.0. And reportedly, St. Louis isn't satisfied with their bullpen situation and is looking for closer for 2002.

No matter where St. Louis spends money this offseason, expect them to spend wisely and expect this team to again challenge for the NL Central title.

With only one bad team, Pittsburgh, and two teams unlikely to make the leap into Divisional contendership, Cincy and Milwaukee; Chicago, St. Louis, and Houston will again battle it out in one of the tougher divisions in baseball.

Article courtesy of Sports Central.