NFL: Mike vs. Mike, a Superbowl XXXIII Rematch?

Week 13: This week brings a game between Denver and Seattle. Of course, the dreaded King Dome and its unforgiving Astroturf have been demolished, so this game will be played in the Washington Huskies stadium. Husky Stadium is a college stadium with Field Turf, a new brand of rubbery Astroturf that is much easier on the football players, and plays like healthy grass. I’m looking forward to seeing a game on this new stuff.

Seattle is a team in a bit of disarray. It seems that Mike Holmgren, in all his wisdom, has gotten rid of just about every star on the team, and brought in mediocre replacements. He has drafted a QB who has proven nothing yet, and alienated a promising young QB who wilted under pressure. The other AFC West Mike also managed to get rid of Warren Moon, a wise old QB that might have helped him with the development of the position. The Seahawk defense and offense have both managed to be ranked in the bottom 10 of the league, and Mike’s GM decisions managed to kill the relationship with Joey Galloway and hasn’t impressed too many other free agents. Jon Kitna, in another no-pressure situation in a game he wasn’t supposed to win had a fine day on the road in Jacksonville. Brock Huard has yet to have a good day anywhere. Yet, Kitna will go back to the bench, and Brock will get to start again. Holmgren has 2 1st round picks in the draft, likely pretty high ones, and he must determine whether or not he should drop a pick on a Drew Brees or a Chris Weinke, or whether he should focus on any of Seattle’s other many needs.

Denver is coming off an Elway-like comeback that could either launch them on a roll, or leave them worn out and hung-over. Gus Frerotte had peaks and valleys, but had a very impressive second half and got away with a victory in his second start as a Bronco QB. With little help from the defense, Denver got a very emotional victory. Terrell Davis is still a question mark, and Mike Anderson has been a solid QB, but a poor pass-blocker when called on to pick-up the blitz. Denver needs this game to stay in the wild card hunt, as there are 8 teams at 7-4 or better, and it’s possible that 10 wins might not guarantee a playoff spot this year. A key road win will help them build on their confidence, and a good defensive game against a talented but poorly executed offense will help a faltering and injured defense find some chemistry and success to build on. On to the matchups.

Seattle: QB: I’ve already explored the QB situation in Seattle. Brock is a very green second year QB, and he should be rusty after missing time with a concussion. He has the physical tools to be a great NFL quarterback, but he still has a long way to go. If he falters, Kitna might have an impressive day, but the QB situation will likely affect his ability to compete, and Denver is not likely to take him as lightly as Jacksonville must have.

I believe Seattle picked up a new #3 QB for possible future development, but it is quite unlikely that he will be a factor or see significant playing time.

RB: Rookie Shaun Alexander has drawn solid reviews and has learned well under long-time vet Ricky Watters. They have shared the spotlight well, and Watters and Alexander have both had a few solid games. Unfortunately, their average line leaves a lot to be desired, and their struggling passing game and average receivers usually leave them playing against 8 and 9 man fronts. Seattle has also been blown out a few times which usually cuts down drastically on the number of carries the running backs get. Denver’s run defense has been phenomenal since the Cincinnati game, containing the Jets, Raiders, and Chargers quite well. They should have similar success against the Seahawks, although getting adjusted to the rookie Alexander may take a quarter or two, depending upon the amount of playing time he gets.

WR: Seattle has a large collection of #2, #3, and #4 receivers, but no legitimate #1s. Imagine the Red Sox pitching rotation without Pedro and you have the Seattle receiving situation. Sean Dawkins and Derrick Mayes have some skills, and a Holmgren designed offense will always put receivers in the position to make plays, but neither of these guys can compare to a Freeman, a Galloway, or any of the 4 guys in San Francisco. They may be able to exploit the decimated cornerback squad from Denver, but Terrell Buckley has had a very solid year, and Jimmy Spencer has plenty of experience playing in the AFC West. Deltha O’Neal will likely see a lot of time at nickel back, especially if Denver can force Seattle into obvious passing situations. Denver claims to have confidence in his ability and talent, but he’s still a rookie, and saw his first few snaps as a cornerback last week.

TE: Seattle has respectable Tight Ends in Fauria and Mili, and Holmgren will take full advantage of them, just as he did with the infamous Chmura in Green Bay’s Superbowl days. Denver’s talented linebackers have struggled with the better tight ends they’ve faced this year, but should contain these guys fairly well. I see them making a few catches here and there, but not enough to make a real difference in the game.

O-line: Chris McIntosh is a promising young tackle. The rest of the Seattle line is made up of developing players, but not a top group in the league. They are a combination of young vets, with a very experienced center. Pryce should be able to make a difference in the middle as he has all year. This should free up the ends to makes some plays on the corners. Kitna has had miserable games against blitzing defenses in the past, and Brock is sure to make a few mistakes when the pressure is on. The offensive line will be well rested coming off the bye week, and I’m sure Holmgren will motivate them to protect the QB of the future, but I think they’ll have a shoddy day against the Denver pass rush.

D-line: Denver’s offensive line fared quite well against a solid San Diego defense. They managed to control the run, but with injuries to Neil Smith and Rodney Harrison the Chargers pass rush was severely compromised. The Seahawks have a lot more talent on the line though. “Tez” Kennedy and Michael Sinclair are 2 very talented and respectable vets. The Denver O-line has been sound all year, and although thin, if they are healthy they should protect the QB and open lanes for the running game. Denver’s QB will probably get hit once or twice, especially if Mike Anderson misses a blitz or two, but the defensive line will probably need a little help from the other 7 members of the defense.

LB: This is one position, like linebacker, where the Seahawks are truly average. Made up of solid veterans that play hard, Seattle linebackers are not difference makers and are one of the reasons this defense is ranked towards the bottom of the pile. They are fundamentally sound, but are not likely to be major factors either blitzing or stopping the run.

Secondary: Shawn Springs may be the best defensive player the Seahawks have. One of the leagues top cornerbacks, he’s an interception threat and a solid coverage guy. Jay Bellamy has had a great year at safety, but the other side of the football is quite exploitable. Willie Wiliams and Kerry Joseph (who?), are average guys on an average defense. Springs might get an interception, Bellamy might snag one himself, but Denver’s offense should exploit their defense with a balanced attack, and Denver’s receivers should be able to make plays against this bunch.

ST: While they used to have the fearsome Galloway returning punts in Seattle, now they have scat-back Charlie Rogers backed up by Kerry Joseph at the returner position. I’m sure they are quite speedy, but Denver’s coverage has been safe and effective for most of the year, and while we usually give up a few generous returns, I don’t see any of these guys going all the way, or returning anything past midfield. Feagles is a solid veteran punter, while Lindell is a rookie who’s fared as well as the infamous Janiscowski and other rookie kickers. Lindell has missed his share of kicks, but they’ll stick with him and have seen progress. Their coverage teams have been average as well, so maybe Deltha or Chris Cole will have some luck returning kicks.

Coaching: I think Mike Holmgren as a GM is a mistake. While he’s turned a few bad situations into future solid draft picks, now he has to pick the right guy, and he’ll have no one to blame but himself. He also has to pick his own quarterback, and it’s not likely he’ll find another Brett Favre on the waiver wire. Time will tell if Holmgren is ready to earn the fattest check in the NFL, and whether he needs help from a solid GM or can do it himself. He has an effective system but is lacking enough horses right now, and the big upset in Jacksonville was a surprise, but only managed to increase the QB controversy in Seattle these days. I expect he will give Seattle a chance to win, but depending upon the execution of his quarterbacks, Seattle could easily play themselves out of the game early.

Denver Broncos: QB: Gus Frerotte was 2 things last week. 1) He was a winner. 2) He led an Elway like comeback, and barely made enough big plays to compensate for his mistakes.

This week Gus has the confidence of his teammates, and the expectations of fans, coaches, and teammates that he will improve in the Denver offense, and be able to have success against the low-ranked Seattle defense. What doesn’t show up in the yardage statistics is Seattle’s ability to create turnovers, and it’s likely they’ll get a few turnovers off of Frerotte’s INT’s or fumbles. Gus should have enough gas to exploit the weaknesses of the Seattle defense, and hopefully the run game will keep the pressure off of him as much as possible.

RB: Every time I think TD is going to play, he doesn’t, whenever it seems like he isn’t going to play, he does. I don’t expect him to play this week, but it’s likely his serious injury is another Denver ploy to bait and switch the Seattle game plan. If he’s not healthy, it sounds like Mike Anderson is. Denver would be in serious trouble without his punishing attack at running back, but he’s got a lot of fundamentals to work on, and none is more important than protecting the quarterback and picking up the blitz. He will likely have success against the Seattle defense, and if KaRon is healthy, he might come in to mix in some outside running. Howard Griffith has been solid as usual at Fullback, while Detron Smith has been a special team’s demon. Ian Gold was so impressed that he leapfrogged Detron last week. Gold jumped right over the 5-10 Smith and Smith didn’t even bother to duck. Raymont Harris will probably only see playing time in an emergency, but he should be active if TD is still hurt.

WR: Ed and Rod are the most important part of this Broncos team, if only because it’s the one position where Denver seriously lacks depth. While a 2nd string QB, a rookie RB, and backups on the offensive line have all had success this year, Denver’s tight ends have been a much bigger part of the passing game than the #3 wide receiver spot. Travis McGriff is running out of time to prove himself, Robert Brooks is long gone, and Chris Cole has been injured or forgotten. 2 other rookie receivers have been brought on board, but it’s likely they won’t learn the playbook until next summer’s training camp. Scottie Montgomery and Chafie Fields were both brought onto the roster recently, but will likely only be seen on special teams. Denver has had quite a bit of luck playing some of their tight ends at receiver in 3 and 4 wide receiver sets, and this trend is likely to continue at least through the current season. Though Denver’s tight end squad is made up of mostly average and still developing players, they are much better than the receivers Denver’s kept around. I wouldn’t be surprised if 4th string tight end Billy Miller split time with Chris Cole and McGriff at the #2 receiver spot if McCaffrey actually misses the game with his neck injury.

TE: Dwayne Carswell is earning his contract extension as a run blocker and occasional 3rd down playmaker. Desmond Clark has made a few big plays himself, including a TD last week. Byron Chamberlain, when he’s gotten the chance, has also caught some big passes and used his size and speed to move the ball. Billy Miller has been a solid special team’s contributor, but hasn’t gotten too many snaps on offense. These 4 have contributed greatly to Denver’s success on offense this year, but none have the game breaking ability of a Shannon Sharpe. Dwayne and Clark will likely be the future at this position, and Billy Miller is likely to develop into a solid backup and continue to earn his money on special teams. Chamberlain is likely to be traded or cut after this year, but his talents will be fully exploited as long as he can help this team.

O-line: Dangerously thin, but also the most devastating part of the team, Denver’s offensive line has had a very difficult yet successful year. Schlereth was playing poorly due to excruciating pain that has led to 3 more surgeries on his shredded left knee. He’s feeling better now, but has already been placed on injured reserve and is likely to retire. With no backup guards, and only 3 backup linemen total, 1 of which has only been in Denver a few weeks, the depth chart is quite confusing. If a guard goes down, Nalen will have to play out of position at guard, while K.C. Jones, with no experience, comes in at center for Denver. Cooper Carlisle is the backup at both Tackle positions, while Mercier is also listed as a guard. Mercier is a rookie who’s only been a Bronco for a week or two, and he would likely only be used in emergency situations. I would think it more likely that Dwayne Carswell would fill in at tackle than seeing Mercier play before next year. Still, if the starting 5 are healthy, they should dominate this game.

D-line: Pryce continues to prove he deserves a big extension and a fat contract, and if Mike doesn’t get something done this off-season, Pryce will hold out until he does. Traylor has been reliable and solid as usual, while Kavika continue to excel in the Denver system. Ma’a is also solid on the other end. They will likely terrorize the Seahawks quarterbacks, especially early.

LB: It looks like Denver went back to their normal starting linebackers against the Chargers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver used a little Gold sprinkled into the game plan like they did against the Raiders. Romo came up big, while Mobley and Wilson had solid game in run defense. They cannot be blamed for the ridiculous success of the Chargers deep ball, unless they are to be blamed for being 2 steps short on the 9-man blitz. With hard practices and a focus on fundamentals, they should control Ricky Watters as they have in the past, and hopefully they’ll be ready for the elusive and speedy Alexander as well.

Secondary: Denver’s secondary did their best to give the Chargers game away. Losing Crockett hurts Denver a lot, but he was struggling the last few games anyway. He has a messed up ankle that slowed him down, and him playing might have done more damage than it was worth. Terrell Buckley continues to demonstrate his value at cornerback, while Jimmy Spencer has plenty of experience as a starter in the AFC West. Eric Brown and Billy Jenkins made a few mistakes last Sunday, but played nowhere near as bad as they have in the past. Bringing Deltha in at nickel-back will likely lead to a lot of passes going his way. This will be his opportunity to hawk a few balls, or get burnt like a pop tart in an incinerator. Kenoy Kennedy has gotten a lot of chances the last few weeks, and has played well, so this will likely continue. His hard hits and rookie mistakes will likely be no worse than those made by the starting safeties this year.

ST: Deltha continues to be a solid threat at returner, and Lindsey has proved his worth as a kick-off specialist. Tom Rouen has had some of his best games lately, while Rouen continues to prove his confidence his shot since the back injury. He is still basically automatic inside 40 yards, but has missed quite a few long field goals this year. Denver should win the war on special teams in this game.

Coaching: Shanahan coached the game of his life last weekend, with a little help from the refs, and lots of luck, they got a much-needed win. The Superbowl rematch likely won’t live up to the hype, with 2 of the once most respected coaches in the league trying to prove themselves all over again. Denver has had success on the road this year, with a big game week 1 in St. Louis, big wins in San Diego and St. Louis, and a tremendous disappointment in Cincinnati. More recently they upset the Jets coming off their bye week, and will hopefully be ready to play in Seattle this week. Robinson continues to be incredibly inconsistent, with very imperfect game plans in needs to constant adjustments that never quite seem to work. This week they get to exploit more average cornerbacks, and hopefully they won’t put up the hall of fame numbers Ryan Leaf managed to get away with. Kubiak has done well calling the plays, while Dennison has our special teams at least respectable, but nowhere near the best in the league.

As stated in the beginning, I’m thinking this game could go either way. Denver has gone out of their way to play down to their opponents this year, and Seattle is very confident coming off a bye week and a road win in Jacksonville. Denver will be drained after such an emotional win, and will be playing a fresh and rested division rival. Denver may abuse a QB that’s not quite ready for the NFL, or this might be his coming out party. At any rate, I’m hoping Robinson does enough to save his job, or gets fired soon. I see either a close game going to the Hawks, 30-28, or a Denver blowout, 35-10. Hopefully the field turf will minimize the injuries, and Denver will be ready to beat them in their second meeting down the road.

This game could go either way. Vegas has Denver by a touchdown, and if all things were equal, I’d expect a Denver blowout. With a desperate San Diego squad, a question mark at field general for Denver, and a mystery guest at quarterback for San Diego, there are too many variables to predict this game. Denver could throw all day and embarrass the Charger’s weakness the same way Kansas City and St. Louis did earlier this year. Denver could stick to the run and wear down San Diego if the Denver defense holds the inept Charger’s offense repeatedly. The Chargers could catch Denver unprepared, and a shootout could ensue. Most likely one of two things will happen. Either Gus will ignore the pressure, and demonstrate the pro-bowl form he has forgotten over the last 5 years, or he will be completely befuddled by the Charger’s defense and fall apart. I’m hoping for the former. Denver 31, San Diego 20.