Colonel on white charger rides to aid of poor

Two years ago, Colonel Lucio Gutierrez was in jail; yesterday, he was bathed in floodlights, standing on a platform throwing roses to an adoring crowd. If the rest of Ecuador is as enthused by his promises to fight corruption and poverty as the banner-waving throng in Quito, then another Latin American president with a leftwing agenda is about to be elected.

A Gutierrez victory in the election tomorrow would come a few weeks after Lula da Silva's landslide in Brazil and recent leftist gains in Peru and Bolivia. It would provide a further indication that Latin American voters - and the indigenous population in particular - are turning away from conservative, US-approved candidates and neo-liberal policies.

After pop singers in hot pants, boy bands in white suits and comedians in Indian costume had warmed up the crowd, Col Gutierrez, dressed in his trademark military uniform, addressed the throng in a voice made hoarse by intense campaigning and the dust that had drifted through the city after a recent volcanic eruption.

Massive posters showed him astride a white charger and he promised the crowd "revolution".

But this was not the sort of revolution that would cause immediate panic in the US embassy down the road. It was, he said, "spiritual revolution, intellectual revolution".

The electorate in this country of 12 million people will choose between Col Gutierrez, a career soldier accused by his opponents of being a communist, and Alvaro Noboa, a banana billionaire.

Military prison

Col Gutierrez hails from a lower middle-class family in the Amazon region and came to public attention in 2000 when the president, Jamil Mahuad, decided to change the national currency to the US dollar. This led to big demonstrations and the replacement of Mr Mahuad with a triumvirate which included Col Gutierrez, who had the backing of the indigenous groups and junior army officers.

Their rule was short-lived; the vice-president, Gustavo Noboa, took over and Col Gutierrez was sent to military prison for six months. Now he is back.

Alvaro Noboa (no relation to the current president) comes from Guayaquil, the country's largest city, and is part of the Bonita banana empire started by his father. He has been spending heavily on television commercials and has campaigned with his glamorous blonde wife, Arabella, by his side.

In the first round of voting last month, Col Gutierrez was the surprise winner out of 11 candidates, taking 20% of the vote to Mr Noboa's 17.4%, thus setting up tomorrow's run-off. Significantly, both candidates come with their own new parties and have defeated the traditional parties of government. Opinion polls, which are notoriously unreliable, have put Col Gutierrez at 49% to Mr Noboa's 29%, with 16% saying they would spoil their ballots. (Everyone between 18 and 65 must vote by law, but they can spoil ballots if they don't like either candidate.)

The election, which is likely to be much closer, has a significance far beyond the boundaries of one small nation tucked between the powerful neighbours of Colombia and Peru. If Col Gutierrez wins, he will be the latest incarnation of a new-style Latin American leftist politician who pursues social reforms while avoiding confrontation with the US and the IMF.

Col Gutierrez, 45, is running on an anti-corruption platform with promises to help the poor; half the population are below the poverty line.

Leaflets distributed at the rally showed him in full combat gear with a clenched fist beneath the slogan "Smash the oligarchy!" But he has been at pains to reassure Washington and the IMF that he is no Marxist and that all existing contracts and treaties, specifically those connected to Ecuador's vital oil industry, would be honoured and the US's anti-drugs base in Manta could remain.

Placating US

Col Gutierrez has been so anxious to avoid alienating the US that he took three days off from campaigning to visit Washington, New York and Miami and talk to US and IMF officials. The strategy seems to have paid off: earlier this week the Wall Street Journal declared that the US had nothing to fear from him. He is also keen to distance himself from Venezuela's beleaguered president, Hugo Chavez, another leftwing army officer who was also briefly jailed for plotting a coup before being elected and whom Col Gutierrez declared as a role model in 2000.

"I haven't even spoken to Chavez on the telephone," he said at a gathering with the foreign press in a Quito hotel on Wednesday. He dismissed his opponent's claims that he was communist and that capital would flee the country if he was elected.

In relaxed mood, Col Gutierrez, who often refers to himself in the third person, said that he believed his election, following Lula's win, would send a signal throughout Latin America: "For the poor people, for the marginal people."

He describes himself as "centre left" and "pragmatic". Like Lula, he is preaching reform rather than revolution, focusing on corruption within government and the courts. "People try to stigmatise Lucio Gutierrez," he said at the start of the campaign. "My only ideology is for my country."

Banana baron

Significantly, he has the backing of Pachakutik, the indigenous party. Traditionally the poorest sectors of Latin American society, indigenous groups have already flexed their electoral muscles in Bolivia and Peru. Now indigenous Ecuadorians, who account for up to about 40% of the population, may do the same.

The portly Mr Noboa, 52, has been addressing rallies dressed in a canary yellow polo shirt, pledging "employment, employment, employment" and warning the electorate of dark days ahead if they put his rival in power. His platform includes offering concessions to foreign investors to stimulate the economy.

"Lucio represents radical change, I represent liberal change," Mr Noboa said. "This is not a radical country." Despite the polls, Mr Noboa expressed confidence.

Outside Ecuador, a Gutierrez victory would be seen as highly significant. "Gutierrez represents part of a democratic left movement taking place throughout Latin America," said Larry Birns, of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs in Washington.

"While he speaks an anti-neoliberal line, he is much more in the mainstream than Chavez and has far greater strength. Remarkably, the US administration had concluded the age of ideology in Latin America was over and the region was more concerned with trade, but protest never dies, it just takes different forms."

Among voters, opinions on the candidates differ. Fernando del Pozo, one of Col Gutierrez's flag-waving supporters, said: "The main reason to vote for him is he is for the people and not for the oligarchy." But an elderly Quiteno, Walter Andino, said: "Neither are any good but Gutierrez is worse: Noboa is cancer but Gutierrez is Aids. If he is elected, Ecuador will be like Venezuela."

By Monday, Ecuador will have a new president. The crowd chanting "Lucio! Lucio!" beneath the night sky in Quito yesterday was hoping that it is the man on the white horse.

Left-leaning Latins

Brazil: Luiz Inancio "Lula" da Silva and his Workers' party gained a landslide run-off victory on October 27. Lula beat Jose Serra by 53 million to 33 million votes. The former union organiser won at his fourth attempt by promising to tackle Brazil's inequality and social exclusion. He has pledged to pay Brazil's debts and accepted an IMF loan

Peru: The centre-left American Popular Revolutionary Alliance made big gains in elections for 25 new regional governments on November 17. The party leader and former president, Alan Garcia, said it was a call for the government to "show more social sensibility"

Bolivia: In July, the Movement Towards Socialism led by the coca-farmer Evo Morales became the second-largest party in the Bolivian congress. During the election, the US ambassador warned that aid might be cut off if Morales won. Many said this intervention helped boost the party's vote