China Ratchets Up Threats Before Taiwan's Elections

China warned Taiwan yesterday that it was prepared to use force to halt the island's march towards independence as relations between the two plunged to the most dangerous level in almost 10 years.

Beijing's strongest threat of war for several years came amid a promise by Taiwan's president, Chen Shui-bian, to reform the island's constitution as the centrepiece of his campaign for re-election in March.

China sees Mr Chen's proposal as a step towards independence for Taiwan, which Beijing has regarded as a renegade province since it defeated nationalist opponents who fled there in 1949.

"If the Taiwan authorities collude with forces to openly engage in pro-independence activities and challenge the mainland and the one-China principle, the use of force may become unavoidable," said Wang Zaixi, the vice-minister of the Taiwan affairs office in Beijing. "Taiwan independence means war."

Analysts said the comments, which were given huge play in the domestic media, marked a departure from China's softer policy towards Taiwan.

Wong Kaying, of the Chinese university in Hong Kong, said: "Beijing has tried to exercise restraint, but this passivity has only encouraged Chen to make more radical propositions.

"Now Beijing has to draw a clear line to show that it will not tolerate moves towards independence for Taiwan. The latest harsh words are likely to be just the start."

The risks are immense. In the last presidential election, Mr Chen's support rose after Beijing ratcheted up the rhetoric against him.

This time China had hoped a policy of quiet diplomacy would benefit its allies in Taipei, who had been leading in the polls for most of the year. But Mr Chen has clawed his way back into contention in the past month with proposals, including moves to change the island's name, a rejection of Beijing's "one-nation, two-systems" formula for reunification and the release of a timetable for a referendum and a revision of the constitution. The president wants the new constitution to be completed by December 10 2006 and to come into effect on May 20 2008.

China has also watched with alarm as Mr Chen has been backed by the US. During a visit to New York earlier this month, he became the first Taiwanese president since 1979 to talk to the press and meet members of Congress. Hawks in Washington have also expressed their willingness to back up the symbolism with muscle.

On Tuesday, the US deputy secretary of state, Richard Armitage, said America would provide Taiwan with "sufficient defence articles for her self-defence", and promised to deploy sufficient force in the Asia-Pacific region to ease tensions. War is in neither side's interest, but the stage was set for a re-run of the 1994-95 crisis, when China beefed up its military presence near Taiwan and the US responded by dispatching an aircraft carrier.