NFL: Can The Chargers Stay Perfect?

Week 12: San Diego’s last win was week 17 of 1999. That is sad, but it is also frightening for Denver. That game in week 17 was played at Mile High stadium.

Mile High has been the hardest place for a visiting team to win since 1976. Denver’s always had a good team, and the altitude, weather, and fans have all contributed to an excellent home field advantage. The last 2 years, Mile High has become one of the easiest places to win. Denver only beat three teams at home last year out of eight, and this year, Denver is a mediocre 3-2 at home and a similar 3-2 on the road.

If Denver doesn’t go at least 4-2 down the stretch, they’ll be home for the holidays.

San Diego is also a desperate, winless team. San Diego is the only desperate, winless team that Denver has beat this year. Hopefully, they’ve learned their lesson.

Hopefully, Gus Frerotte can show some of the talent that got him to the Pro Bowl five years ago. Soon Denver will know if Gus is an answer, or just another mediocre backup. On to the match-ups.

San Diego:

QB: San Diego has one old QB, one extremely gifted athlete with no brain, and one over-achieving journeyman. Jim Harbaugh is old. He led the Colts to a few playoff wins and was once called captain comeback, but with the talent in San Diego he won’t win another playoff in the near future. Harbaugh is their best option. If their always respectable defense can get a few breaks, Harbaugh is most likely to get a few points on the board without tossing countless interceptions and giving the game away. He is a Band-Aid on a gunshot though, as San Diego needs a few long-term answers on offense, and aren’t likely to find any soon.

Ryan Leaf is option number two. While he has yet to earn anything but the potential tag, he still is a marvelous physical specimen with all the physical tools it takes to be a successful NFL quarterback. Unfortunately, he’s also dead between the ears. Ryan Leaf has stayed out of the news much better this year. However, getting caught putting with a wrist injury that kept him sidelined, telling the press he wasn’t going to play before he told his coach, and generally being the same cocky loudmouth moron that has sullied his reputation in the past hasn’t really helped his public image. Ryan Leaf has thrown a few touchdown passes, but due to his erratic play, and constant injury status, the question is still out on whether he will ever be an NFL QB, or whether he’s destined for the XFL.

San Diego needs to answer that question before they cut him, although they are finally towards the end of the cap hits they will suffer for the huge contract a number two overall pick commands.

Their number three guy is Moses Moreno. He was the dark horse for the Chargers in the quarterback of the future race. Moses is another NFL doghouse resident for no apparent reason. The coach gave him a few chances to start, but has soured on his potential. Now he’s out with injuries. The QB for the Chargers this weekend will likely be Ryan Leaf, as he did practice with the team and look healthy. He will likely be torn to pieces by the hostile Denver crowd and be benched early if he plays as he has in the past. It’s also possible that Harbaugh will play with a mild hernia. Either way San Diego can’t hope to get too much out of their Quarterbacks.

RB: San Diego has a few big backs they use in their power running game. Last year after Natrone Means got hurt Kenny Bynum had a few good games, including a solid performance against Denver. They also have Jermaine Fazande, who’s another punishing power back that poses a threat. Denver’s had good success against big running backs this year, although it posed a problem for them last year, and the average San Diego running game shouldn’t pose too much of a threat. Assuming the Denver defense shows up ready to play, the San Diego team should be pretty much shut down on the ground.

WR: San Diego brought in Curtis Conway this off-season, and the veteran receiver has been earning his paychecks. He’s had a few big days for the Chargers, although he missed a few weeks with injury that might have cost San Diego a win or two. He’s is their biggest receiving threat. Behind Curtis they have a large collection of average practice squad guys with little big play ability and little chemistry with any of the QBs on the carousel. San Diego’s passing attack is hit or miss, and sometimes it’s just miss.

TE: Freddie Jones is hurt, but he’s likely to play anyway. He’s one of the better pass threats at tight end in the league, as well as a solid blocker. Denver’s defensive schemes have controlled most tight ends outside of Tony Gonzalez, and Freddie didn’t have too much luck against Denver in the first game this season. I expect Jones to be their leading receiver, with 50 yards on six catches, but he’s not likely to score or blow the game open.

O-line: San Diego’s offensive line is a mess. Having no faith in their quarterbacks or running backs has demoralized a group with average talent. They give up plenty of sacks, and aren’t too solid in the running game either. While some of the sacks can be blamed on their lack of talent at receiver, or the position the run game puts them in, they really just don’t have the talent to compete with a solid NFL offensive line. Trevor Pryce can disrupt just about any offense, but when he gets to play against unit like this, he opens things up for everybody along the line. I think they’re going to have a rough day, especially if the fairly immobile Ryan Leaf is behind center.

D-line: While the Chargers defensive line is not spectacular, the defense has enough chemistry and does enough blitzing to accommodate a fairly above average pass rush. Neil Smith was not resigned in Denver because he wouldn’t play for incentives, and he has lost his pro-bowl form of a few years ago. On the other hand, I’m sure he’d like to make Denver regret letting him go, and whatever he’s got left in his engine will be burned up on Sunday. He’ll probably also inspire a solid effort from his new friends in San Diego. They might get in the backfield once or twice, but Denver’s solid line should keep the San Diego pass rush under control. Having Terrell Davis back will make a huge difference as well, because his backups missed a lot of blitzes that Terrell would have stopped.

LB: Junior Seau is amazing. His helpers are also a solid unit. When the San Diego defense is clicking, it’s nearly impossible to run the ball on them, and the pass rush will make up for most of what they lack in coverage. When a team gets away from the running game, it also allows a lot more blitzing and free lancing on the part of Junior Seau, who always seems to be where the ball is, or where the balls going. Seau is aging, and he’s had to fight off a few injuries this year, but he’s still one of the best in the league.

Secondary: San Diego has Rodney Harrison, who is probably the best safety in the league. When him and Seau are playing, they can stop just about any big play threat the other team has. When one of the two goes out, San Diego becomes a very average defense. Rodney is battling a minor hamstring injury this week that has kept him out of practice. He’ll probably be up for the game though, as San Diego won’t need to be saving themselves for the playoffs this year. Denver is one of their bigger rivals, and to play spoiler to the Broncos might sweeten the two bitter defeats San Diego has already suffered at the hand of Oakland. The rest of San Diego’s backfield is made up of utility guys. Average corners with a lot of help, but they seem to be enough when the defense is clicking and keeping an offense sputtering.

ST: San Diego has one of the best punters in the business, and they get every penny’s worth. Their place kicker is seldom used, and may have actually been deactivated for a few games this year (just kidding). While St. Louis is a team that hardly punts, San Diego is a team that hardly ever scores, which means they hardly ever need a PAT kicker, a field goal kicker, or a kickoff kicker. The San Diego special teams are run of the mill, and I expect solid punt and kickoff coverage, but I don’t think they’ll pose much of a threat returning Denver kicks.

Coaching: Mike Riley has a million excuses for his failure. Top of the list would have to be Ryan Leaf, his impact on the salary cap, and his role as a complete embarrassment to the franchise. Mike Riley has tried to put something together, but after a little success last year, San Diego is on pace to be the worst NFL team of all time. Maybe a high draft pick on a non-worthless QB will help start turning things around, but they’re also short a premiere pass rusher, a solid offensive line, a reliable running back, and a deep receiving corps. Riley couldn’t have done too much better with what he has to work with, but he probably couldn’t have done much worse.

Denver Broncos:

QB: Gus Frerotte, a man who got to the pro-bowl in a year he threw 12 TDs and 11 INTs, will play against the dreaded Chargers defense. Much like the fearsome KC pass rush that wore him out a few months ago, he will be tested by one of the better defenses in the NFL. They will slow Davis, and they will put Denver in a few 3rd and long situations. If Gus can deliver, if he’s learned a little more of the West Coast offense, and if he can put the ball in the end zone, he can be the difference in this game. If he leads Denver to another 5 red zone field goal day, San Diego will probably give it their all to squeak out a win. Denver needs to get a lead and run out the clock. I think if San Diego can keep the game within reach through 3 quarters, they will find a way to win. Denver mush put the game out of reach, and that starts with solid play from the QB with no turnovers and points on the board. If Gus does put the game away, or if he struggles, Shanahan might give Jarious Jackson the nod, but he would severely limit the game plan. Jackson is a developmental project, and a very gifted athlete, but he’s not ready to be an NFL QB yet. While he might be a good surprise for a game or two, this defense would likely have little problem controlling his scrambling and his decision making.

RB: Denver was finally healthy, and then Griese goes down. TD has a major sprain of his left calf. He will play through it, and hopefully suffer on further injuries. Mike Anderson will spell Davis, and Mike was good enough to get Denver a win against San Diego in the first match-up. Howard Griffith and Detron Smith are also healthy, along with Raymont Harris, giving Denver plenty of depth, options, and skill at running back. San Diego is a hard team to run on, but TD and Griffith will help protect Gus against the blitz, and will pose a reliable threat to run on any given down.

WR: Ed and Rod are the most important part of this Broncos team, after Brian Griese. In the last 2 years, Denver’s offense has sputtered and failed if either of these guys missed a game. Luckily they’re both healthy at the moment. Shanahan finally tired of Robert Brooks fragile self, and cut him to make room for a kickoff specialist, the ultimate insult. Travis McGriff has gotten quite a bit of playing time, but has rarely gotten a ball throw to him. Whether this is due to Ed and Rod usually getting open, his failure to get open, or the fact that he’s too short to play the middle is for those who study film to decide. Denver also brought in another pair of rookie receivers for long term development. Denver still has not found a number 3 receiver, but McGriff could still prove to be the answer, even though his time is quickly running out.

TE: Dwayne Carswell continues to be a spectacular blocker and fair receiver. Like Rod Smith, he tends to go through drop spells, but he also comes up with quite a few big third down conversions. Byron Chamberlain has also gotten a few big catches in recent weeks. Desmond Clark continues to develop slowly and Billy Miller continues to be a special team’s demon. Not much has changed with the Tight End situation.

O-line: Mark Schlereth is gone for the rest of the year, and likely forever. I’m sure he will wait to announce his retirement until the season is over, so as not to distract from the team. Schlereth was one of the best left guards in the league the last few years, playing through great pain and overachieving. Lennie Friedman is likely to have a long successful career in Denver, but he is still prone to rookie mistakes, and does not have the chemistry or experience that Mark brings to the table. Nalen, the Denver center, is also the backup guard. Denver is carrying only 2 guards on the roster currently, so if either Dan Neil or Lennie were to go down, Nalen would play guard, and the backup guard would be center. Cooper Carlisle is the lone Tackle backup, so Denver is very thin, and playing it risky at the offensive line position. There are few options in the free agent market at this point as well. It takes a while to learn the Gibb’s offensive line system, and the rookies currently on the practice squad are a ways from being solid starters. If they stay healthy they’ll continue to be one of the best in the league, but a little bad luck could quickly tear apart the strength of this team.

D-line: Denver’s defensive line dominated the Raiders, but the slippery Gannon eluded the pass rusher time after time. The Chargers QBs will not be so lucky. Pryce will continue to demonstrate consistency as one of the best defensive tackles in the league, and Keith Traylor will continue to plug up the middle. Maa and Kavika are speed rusher who should have similar success to what they had in the 1st Chargers game. The backups in the rotation are also likely to see time, and get some experience battering the Chargers QBs. This should be a good day for Denver’s linemen, and hopefully for the defense all around.

LB: Ian Gold is the masked man who blew up Monday Night. A second round draft pick from Michigan, I immediately questioned the decision to blow a high round pick on an area of the team where we were so deep. If Denver had spent that pick on a receiver, or a lineman, or a cornerback, Denver would have lost that game to Oakland. Ian Gold is another undersized linebacker that will likely have a great deal of success in the Robinson system. He’s very fast, and he had a lot of success hiding behind linemen before a surprise speed blitz. While Romo, Wilson, and Mobley are cemented as the starters this year, depending upon Romo’s legal problems, and Mobley’s free agency, it is likely Gold could be starting as soon as next year. He will continue to get playing time as long as he keeps making big plays, and is likely 2nd on the depth chart on at least one of the linebacker positions. Romo continues to improve at an age most linebackers are thinking about retirement, while Wilson and Mobley continue to perform as solid defensive stars. Denver may give up a few big plays to the big running backs from San Diego, but as long as they continue to swarm to the ball and don’t miss too many tackles, they should shut down the Charger’s offense.

Secondary: Denver’s secondary is solid when Buckley and Crockett are both on the field. Crockett missed some time in the Raider game, and that time coincided directly with big plays by Andre Rison and Tim Brown. Crockett is nursing a sprained ankle, but will likely play if he can in the San Diego game. Denver’s average cornerbacks will likely have no problem with the Chargers average receivers, and Buckley will probably cover Conway if Crockett can’t play. Mike seems to be progressing as far as putting rookies in the mix, so this game might actually see some of Deltha at cornerback, a few plays from Lester Archembeau at end, and more playing time for Kenoy Kennedy as well. KaRon Coleman and Chris Cole might get activated as well if Denver can mix their speed into the game plan. Both are coming off injuries.

ST: Deltha got his clock cleaned in the Oakland game, but that didn’t stop him from coming back in the game to return kicks. He’s proven his ability as a return man, but his focus on that has probably slowed his development at cornerback. Hopefully next year he can focus solely on cornerback without forgetting everything he’s learned about special teams. Denver could really use a young star in the backfield because Crockett is aging, and Buckley may not stick around too long. Rouen had the game of his life against Oakland, Elam is still one of the best field goal kickers in the league, and the new kickoff specialist should get some touchbacks. All around Denver’s special teams is back in the shape it was during the Superbowl runs, and is far far better than they were to open the season.

Coaching: Denver’s coaching has another big test this week. I believe Shanahan and Kubiak are a big reason legends like Steve Young, John Elway, and now Brian Griese turned from bust into all star. If they can do the same with Gus Frerotte, my respect for them as coaches will only increase. Greg Robinson continues to be incredibly lucky as a defensive coordinator, with his schemes allowing the Jets, and Raiders, a big opportunity to get back in the game, only not quite enough to win it. It is better to be lucky than good, but I’m hoping our defense learns to be both, and if that can’t happen under Robinson, it’s time to find somebody else.

This game could go either way. Vegas has Denver by a touchdown, and if all things were equal, I’d expect a Denver blowout. With a desperate San Diego squad, a question mark at field general for Denver, and a mystery guest at quarterback for San Diego, there are too many variables to predict this game. Denver could throw all day and embarrass the Charger’s weakness the same way Kansas City and St. Louis did earlier this year. Denver could stick to the run and wear down San Diego if the Denver defense holds the inept Charger’s offense repeatedly. The Chargers could catch Denver unprepared, and a shootout could ensue. Most likely one of two things will happen. Either Gus will ignore the pressure, and demonstrate the pro-bowl form he has forgotten over the last 5 years, or he will be completely befuddled by the Charger’s defense and fall apart. I’m hoping for the former. Denver 31, San Diego 20.