NLDS post season preview

By the time you read this, some part of my brilliant analysis will have been proven right or wrong, but I will press on anyway and preview the NL Division Series.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Card's hurlers are angry, the Card's hurlers are chomping at the bit to prove to everyone that their team didn't fluke their way to a 105 win season. Unfortunately I'd like the Card's hurlers a heck of a lot more if Chris Carpenter was healthy.

St. Louis is getting very little respect for a team that dominated the National League from day one. The reason is simple, much like the Seattle Mariners from 2001 St. Louis had a pitching staff that was plenty good enough day in and day out, but lacks a dominating presence.

Then again, the Dodgers don't exactly trot out a rotation of Bob Gibson, Dizzy Dean, and Steve Carlton themselves. In fact in many ways the two teams mirror each other. Each had one starter who was very strong this year (Carpenter for the Cards, and Odalis Perez the Game one starter for L.A.) and then a group who were, when you looked at the numbers, surprisingly effective.

Both teams feature starters, Matt Morris for St. Lou, Kaz Ishii for the Dodgers, who have at times been brilliant, and at others, well, piss-poor comes to mind.

Both teams have strong bullpens. Though here the edge goes to the Cardinals. Since the trade of set-up man Guillermo Mota, LA's closer Eric Gagne has been worked far harder, and the results have started to show. Gagne is not throwing as hard as he has in the past. While Giovani Carrara was excellent in Mota's spot for the first couple of months after the deal he struggled badly in September (5.28 ERA), and lost his spot to impressive rookie Yhency Brazoban.

Meanwhile the Cards have an absolute lights out pen. Their top five members, closer Jason Isringhausen, set-up man Julian Tavarez, and Steve Kline, Ray King and Kiko Calero have a combined WHIP of 1.05. Their one weakness may be a relative lack of strike-out power.

The Dodgers boast a feast or famine offense. Adrian Beltre has been superb, but after that the big guns have misfired as often as not. Shawn Green has had a poor season, Steve Finley slowed after a great start to the year in Arizona. While Michael Bradley is a powder-keg waiting to explode and you have to think he could be a non-factor. After that the Dodgers rely on players like Cesar Izturis, Alex Cora and Jayson Werth. These three have all shown the ability to get the big hit, but there is hardly any guarantee.

The Dodgers do match up well with the Cards in one way. The Cards starters are very prone to the long-ball, and the Dodgers have power, finishing 4th in the NL in round-trippers this season. St. Louis needs their starters to keep the long-ball to a minimum, or at least make them solo-shots.

Meanwhile, St. Louis can flat out hit. Their lineup is arguably the best in the game. Scott Rolen has destroyed major league pitchers this year, and he's not even the best hitter on the team. That honour goes to Albert Pujols. Jim Edmonds is the THIRD Cardinal hitter with at least 110 RBI's. Oh yeah, and they added this guy, Larry Walker is his name, perhaps you heard of him? With that sort of beef on the grill the Cards just need players like Tony Womack, John Mabry and Edgar Renteria to chip in here and there.

Finally Woody Williams is an underrated factor in the series. Williams was much better in the second-half (5-1, 3.56 ERA), and he has the reputation of being a bulldog in big games.

In the end the Dodgers are up against a team that is similar, but better than they are in every way.

The pick here is the Cardinals in three games.

Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves

I can't believe this -- I think I actually like the Houston Astros to win a playoff series. The Astros of course are the only team in the last 15 years whom the Braves can look down on when it comes to post-season results.

Time and time again Houston have made it to the post-season only to watch as their always vaunted offense dries up. Since their inception the Astros are 0-7 all time in the playoffs. In their last 14 playoff games, dating back to 1997, Houston is 2-12. These are not the numbers of guys on Wheatie boxes.

However, how do you argue against 36-10? Or 18 in a row? The Astros record since August 14th, and the win streak they have going at home right now?

Further supporting a historic Houston win? Two big game hurlers in Roy Oswalt and Roger Clemens. More importantly during the Astros' run they have finally shown the offense people expected. Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman, Jeff Bagwell and Jeff Kent have all found their hitting shoes. Not to mention stalwarts like Mike Lamb, Morgan Ensberg and Craig Biggio. While the Astros are weak hitting at catcher and short, the rest of the line-up has more than enough pop to make up for it.

Of course they are playing the Braves, the team that is 9-1 against them head-to-head in the playoffs. For Atlanta, a post-season date with the Astros is about as stressful as a round of golf with your best friend. And, contrary to popular belief, this is a pretty good Braves team that didn't just "luck" into the division when the Phillies never got going. Sure Atlanta was quiet out of the gate, but once they started clicking they looked a lot like the same ol' Braves.

Like last season's Braves team these guys can hit. Which is surprising since so many big bats left in the off-season. J.D. Drew finally put it all together this year, staying healthy and setting career highs in almost every major offensive category. A quick snapsot at what makes Drew so dangerous, he walked 118 times to 116 strike-outs. Unless you're Barry Bonds, 30 home run guys just don't do that.

Marcus Giles struggled against right-handed pitching for much of the year, but seems finally recovered from the collar-bone break that sidelined him. While Johnny Estrada might be the best offensive catcher in the NL right now.

Andruw Jones and Rafael Furcal will do what they always do, provide better than average, though somewhat over-rated offense from their positions, and excellent defense.

Chipper Jones and his damaged hand are a concern though for the Braves, as they don't have someone who can replace his power. A key could be the play of impressive rookie Charles Thomas who has been great since taking over as the every day left-fielder in ATL. If he doesn't suffer from stage fright he gives Atlanta another valuable weapon.

Both teams have questions in the pen, but not at the closer slot. For Houston Brad Lidge is on the verge of becoming one of the best in the game, which Atlanta's John Smoltz already is. After that though, both teams have done well with a grab-bag of arms. Houston runs out Chad Qualls, Dan Micelli, Mike "Pico de" Gallo, and specialist hurlers like Chad Harville and Dan Wheeler.

Atlanta has Chris Reitsma who is arguably better than the No. 2 guy in Houston (whomever you judge that to be), and Antonio Alfonseca who has some post-season experience. After that it is Kevin Gryboski, young fire-baller Juan Cruz, and Tom Martin a left-handed specialist who, disturbingly, doesn't get lefties out.

In other words, both these pens are going to let their opponents get some good hacks.

The series will likely hinge on how Atlanta's unheralded, but as usual, effective starters fair against the Astros big two. If Jaret Wright and John Thomson can split with Oswalt and Clemens that is a huge edge for the Braves. The Braves can then send out experienced vets like Paul Byrd, Mike Hampton or (less likely) Russ Oritz.

For Houston, Brandon Backe will be of unfair importance. The young right-hander, likely to start Game 3, was very good in the Astros 5-3 final day, wild-card clinching win against Colorado. However, he looked like a young, learning pitcher for a long stretch of September and may be out of his depth if matched against the crafty Byrd, and Atlanta's line-up of veteran bats.

Houston though has the whiff of a team of, if not destiny, than at least of one prepared to finally take their long-suffering fans to the joys of playoff victory.

My pick -- Astros in five games.